PeAceMaKer7690

DPWT: Olesen (favorite), Mathew Jordan, Soderberg

add Hall

Finau, Hossler, Detry, Suber 

dpwt r. hojgaard comeback win

I like Cam Young, Hoge, Straka, and Smalley

For Dubai, I like A Scott, A Fitz, Neergard, and Soderberg.

GLA!

good pick

I like a Matsuyama/

I like Hoge or Detry or Im for the comeback.

Pendrith showed you can go low.

I can see Morikowa / Matsuyama making a stumble. Maybe 20% chance neither shoots better than -3.

I like comeback at these large odds.

Garnett 600-1 

Hoge 150-1 (pre)

Hall

Rai

McNealy

Detry

Vegas

lfg

@EuroPro

 Got my money, here we go! First of all, love the Nienaber call. I always bet him here. Also, I would of bet Pepperell at the start so I missed him. BUT he is still a longshot to keep it up for two days. He's a good approach, good putter, but needs those working.

Let's talk Lemprecht and Olesen. Lemprecht is scary good. However, both are novices and can cave under pressure. One will. Call it 50/50 the other will. So I like the odds there, but it is a risk. Lemprecht could crush it. 

-8 isn't very good for two days. On this course, someone can go -8 in one day. So EVERYONE is in it. Which makes this fun. Golf has just started as I type, so info may not be up to date when you read:

I am excited by several guys. But best long shots (good value):

D Brown 150-1, all around good player, par 5 good, approach good, -1

Kinhult 100-1, all around good, -1

Von Dellinghausen 80-1 good driver and chipper, -2. 

Aiken -2 110-1 good chipper, putter, all around, birdies

Law 200-1, -1, good driver, good form

Lagergren, 400-1 , Swedish mob boss, par

Jarvis 150-1, par, form, all around, par 5, driver

Paratore 110-1 -3, low score

Okay Value and Low Scores:

Pavon 40-1, -3

Schaper 20-1 All around good, good form, history, and already -4

Southgate 40-1 All around, form, good score, good history, already -3

Ayora 35-1, good form, -2

de Jager, -6!!!! but need better than 12-1. He is good on long course.

Other Plays:

Ding 90-1 , funny name -1

Dingle 300-1 Funny name

Sordet 700-1 par

Germiyush 600-1 par 

Van Velzen 300-1 par

du Plessis 5000-1 +2

Pick the ones you like. Definetely think about your feel on the powerful amateurs up top!

Someone can go LOW today and tomorrow! Let's get a long shot common!

My favorite plays: D Brown, Kinhult, Law, Jarvis, Paratore, Nienaber, Aiken

Second favorite: Pavon, Southgate

To come: Parlays with some college football games!! Lots of underdogs with chances to upset!

This is the kind of week you pick 5 names you think sound funny and bet them because that is where the good odds are

i need to get paid Friday...

I'll be looking for some long shots for sure.

All the favs are suspect to even make the cut.

@EuroPro

 You picked the wrong swedish mobster this week lol. but you got the country right.

@Constantloser

 Picking a guy who is 50-1 doesn't mean they are going to win.

It means that we know there is a 40-1 chance they are going to win and we are getting a great price.

There will be weeks picks are way off because even though price was good, the golfer had a bad week.

-----

By the way, I like Luiten or Van Driel for the win. Had them pre tourney at 50-1 and 150-1. Fingers crossed. I take Langergren sometimes but not this week. 

nice bet. was it because they were 30/37 q1 and q2?

gl

1/3 of my picks are in the top 30 after 3 rounds.

problem is they are mostly in the bottom 30!

Herbert went nuts and posted -8 and -6 (and par )so he has a nice lead over most players. 

If he slows down, it could be a fun day tomorrow! But he has great chances.

Best bets after r1:

Min Woo Lee 30-1

Hillier 30-1

J Smith 35-1

Penge 40-1

Niemann 45-1

Michelluzi 50-1

Neergard 120-1

Van Driel 200-1

Hopewell 200-1

Aphinbarnrat 250-1

Luck 300-1

Elvira 300-1

Scrivener 1.5k - 1

Eccles 2k - 1

Bland 2k - 1

I really like Neergard here. At 120-1 and 8 strokes back, he is absolutely live and a good number. If leader sputter and end the day at -10 and Neergard shoots a -4/-5, he will be 5 or 6 strokes back with 2 days to play. I like this number.

Typo- Smith and Herbert had the easier course yesterday! Expect them to mean revert on the harder course today in harder conditions.

As expected, many players struggled yesterday, including both good players (MWL, Niemann, etc) and all the weak players. Odds boards only think only 34 players can win realistically (only 34 players less than 200-1).

The guys at the top of the board- Cam Smith and Herbert. They are two of the best players in the field, for sure. And they crushed the harder course yesterday with the easier one today. However, they went off early when conditions were easy- soft green and low wind.

As the greens get harder, look for Smith and Herbert to also have some struggling days- a couple days of -2. Many players can catch up. They are in great position, for sure. But we can grab some guys at great odds that were not available yesterday. J Smith. Niemman, MWL, etc. Expect the gap to close spme.

Of course Cam or Herbert can run away. But as I said before, I don't think they are likely to have 4 good days. I like some catch ups and reversals over the next 3 days.