PeAceMaKer7690

@EuroPro

 Got my money, here we go! First of all, love the Nienaber call. I always bet him here. Also, I would of bet Pepperell at the start so I missed him. BUT he is still a longshot to keep it up for two days. He's a good approach, good putter, but needs those working.

Let's talk Lemprecht and Olesen. Lemprecht is scary good. However, both are novices and can cave under pressure. One will. Call it 50/50 the other will. So I like the odds there, but it is a risk. Lemprecht could crush it. 

-8 isn't very good for two days. On this course, someone can go -8 in one day. So EVERYONE is in it. Which makes this fun. Golf has just started as I type, so info may not be up to date when you read:

I am excited by several guys. But best long shots (good value):

D Brown 150-1, all around good player, par 5 good, approach good, -1

Kinhult 100-1, all around good, -1

Von Dellinghausen 80-1 good driver and chipper, -2. 

Aiken -2 110-1 good chipper, putter, all around, birdies

Law 200-1, -1, good driver, good form

Lagergren, 400-1 , Swedish mob boss, par

Jarvis 150-1, par, form, all around, par 5, driver

Paratore 110-1 -3, low score

Okay Value and Low Scores:

Pavon 40-1, -3

Schaper 20-1 All around good, good form, history, and already -4

Southgate 40-1 All around, form, good score, good history, already -3

Ayora 35-1, good form, -2

de Jager, -6!!!! but need better than 12-1. He is good on long course.

Other Plays:

Ding 90-1 , funny name -1

Dingle 300-1 Funny name

Sordet 700-1 par

Germiyush 600-1 par 

Van Velzen 300-1 par

du Plessis 5000-1 +2

Pick the ones you like. Definetely think about your feel on the powerful amateurs up top!

Someone can go LOW today and tomorrow! Let's get a long shot common!

My favorite plays: D Brown, Kinhult, Law, Jarvis, Paratore, Nienaber, Aiken

Second favorite: Pavon, Southgate

To come: Parlays with some college football games!! Lots of underdogs with chances to upset!

This is the kind of week you pick 5 names you think sound funny and bet them because that is where the good odds are

i need to get paid Friday...

I'll be looking for some long shots for sure.

All the favs are suspect to even make the cut.

@EuroPro

 You picked the wrong swedish mobster this week lol. but you got the country right.

@Constantloser

 Picking a guy who is 50-1 doesn't mean they are going to win.

It means that we know there is a 40-1 chance they are going to win and we are getting a great price.

There will be weeks picks are way off because even though price was good, the golfer had a bad week.

-----

By the way, I like Luiten or Van Driel for the win. Had them pre tourney at 50-1 and 150-1. Fingers crossed. I take Langergren sometimes but not this week. 

nice bet. was it because they were 30/37 q1 and q2?

gl

1/3 of my picks are in the top 30 after 3 rounds.

problem is they are mostly in the bottom 30!

Herbert went nuts and posted -8 and -6 (and par )so he has a nice lead over most players. 

If he slows down, it could be a fun day tomorrow! But he has great chances.

Best bets after r1:

Min Woo Lee 30-1

Hillier 30-1

J Smith 35-1

Penge 40-1

Niemann 45-1

Michelluzi 50-1

Neergard 120-1

Van Driel 200-1

Hopewell 200-1

Aphinbarnrat 250-1

Luck 300-1

Elvira 300-1

Scrivener 1.5k - 1

Eccles 2k - 1

Bland 2k - 1

I really like Neergard here. At 120-1 and 8 strokes back, he is absolutely live and a good number. If leader sputter and end the day at -10 and Neergard shoots a -4/-5, he will be 5 or 6 strokes back with 2 days to play. I like this number.

Typo- Smith and Herbert had the easier course yesterday! Expect them to mean revert on the harder course today in harder conditions.

As expected, many players struggled yesterday, including both good players (MWL, Niemann, etc) and all the weak players. Odds boards only think only 34 players can win realistically (only 34 players less than 200-1).

The guys at the top of the board- Cam Smith and Herbert. They are two of the best players in the field, for sure. And they crushed the harder course yesterday with the easier one today. However, they went off early when conditions were easy- soft green and low wind.

As the greens get harder, look for Smith and Herbert to also have some struggling days- a couple days of -2. Many players can catch up. They are in great position, for sure. But we can grab some guys at great odds that were not available yesterday. J Smith. Niemman, MWL, etc. Expect the gap to close spme.

Of course Cam or Herbert can run away. But as I said before, I don't think they are likely to have 4 good days. I like some catch ups and reversals over the next 3 days. 

This is a really fun week to bet! Tough course with lots of underwhelming players. At first you should say, give me the guys at the top. But then you would realize none of them are in top form / elite players and the odds are terrible, then you might say, maybe someone else can win! But, this is a really tough course. You need to eliminate most of the field. So all you are left with is good players at great odds.e

Also, easily one player can run away day 1-2, and then can completely fall apart 3-4 here. Great chance to get some guys at a comeback later in the week. 

If you are willing to ask what if the really good players have a bad day 1-2 (when I will wait to buy them), then you can ask, what players are in good form / good 2024 / good fit to course I want to have at great odds from the start?

You get: Scrivener, Paul, J Smith, Van Driel, Elvira, Hillier, Clements, Schwab, Neergard, Southgate, Law, Wu, Aphinbarnrat, Michelluzi, and Pence. Top of the points list, and accuracy, approached, sand, and putt. 

That's it. A card I can feel fantastic about. Probably a good week for fantasy. Which usually means I am completely wrong and get to laugh about this! But just maybe this is the week!

The favorites are Min Woo Lee, Cam Smith, Neimann, Leishman, Herbert, Cam Davis (everyone previous less than 14-1), Perez, Michelluzi, Neergard, Michelluzi and J. Smith. None of these players are elite and many can have a bad week, especially on a tough course. I like my chances to pick these guys up at better odds (who are still in it) or leave off my card if they bombed. 

16-1 J. Smith

22-1 R. Neergard

28-1 Michelluzi

40-1 Paul

40-1 Parry

-----------everything about this line is questionable and I would do a miniscule bet as these odds are laughable-----------

-----------everything below is decent--------------

45-1 Hillier

60-1 Scrivener HUGE BET

70-1 Clements

70-1 Smylie

80-1 Law

90-1 Southgate

110-1 Luck

110-1 Penge

120-1 Van Driel

150-1 A Wu

150-1 Del Solar

200-1 N. Elvira

200-1 Oglivie

300-1 Eccles

300-1 Hopewell

300-1 H. Crowe

400-1 Sonnott

His approach shots are great. Just needs to get a few putts to drop.

I'm thinking of throwing $100 on Poston at 500-1. I know it will take a -10/-11 and then just average days from the other guys, but I think that there is better than 1% chance of that happening. 

I grabbed Aberg at 120-1. I don't think he will win this year since he didn't do great day 1, but I am glad I don't have to worry about him.

My main basket is Hodges, Hughes, and Eckroat. 

I would love a Cam Davis or Smylie win in Australia as I have them parlayed with all of the above.

BoL to all. 

Pics were sharp boa! Rodgers and Echavarria 9th and 6th at 36.

Will Hoge, Bezuidenhout, and Cole get a boost or slowdown with this course?

Potential value play if you think they get a boost.

For guys with a shot: I like Bhatia + Matsuyama. 

Greyserman 250

R Moore 200

Sigg 170

Novak 120

Dahmen 110

Perez 100

T Moore 80

Glover 80

Olesen 65

Rai 60

Bez 55

Ghim 55

Mitchell 50

---Half these guys in Top 20---

10-1

Conners 

Rory will have an epic 3 stroke meltdown one day this weekend again. Might not cost him the win, but he won't be running away.