PeterSteele

@Borgota

 I agree with them 100%. You have no case. It doesn’t matter that they didn’t offer Clark and Harmon. Your bet is for 1-2 without ties. Dead heat applies in your case. Not sure why you think having an available bet on the other two would factor in at all. Your bet has no bearing on what bets they are offering. PA Gaming Board would side with them. Not because they are in their pockets, but because you are raising an issue that isn’t an issue at all when it comes to the rules. Dead heat rules suck and it’s why I don’t mess around with Top 5s or 10s. You get in the money only to find out, that you didn’t make anything at all. Some books chop the wager rather than the payout odds and you could actually lose money with a winning bet. Good call on MGM

@BigPlayAK

 What you’re missing is that you DON’T understand how dead heat rules are applied. When Scott had to share the edge and going over top 20 with 5 guys (himself included) there were two spots available for five golfers in the tie (since 5 tied for 19th). Therefore, you automatically lose 3/5 of your original bet. They treat it as if you had 2/5 left at +110 odds. Do the math and it gets you close to that. You just learned how much it sucks to tie with others at the edge (while going outside of) a top 20. 

Books have to do this. What if the rest of the field shot that same number? Everyone would get top 20 payouts and their initial wager back. The scenario isn’t going to happen but having 10 tied there is common. Books would get killed and unfairly too. Don’t bet Top anything without understanding this because it’s a kick to the nuts getting surprised by it.

@nfl_brosuf

 No, just try to get other people’s opinions who I respect from being on this board off and on for years. Van is one of those. I’ll probably bet $1k on the Chiefs. I can afford to lose that and not break a sweat. It won’t be fun, but it won’t hurt me. I don’t bet a lot of games throughout the season. Probably an average of one game a week college and NFL combined. Strictly recreational. $500 a week or so. I get that it would suck having everyone tail you though. I agree there

@Stain0nt

With that logic, what is the point of being on this forum?

Square here - respect your analysis. There are others on this forum with great insight as well. I understand that you’re probably not ready to release a called shot on the SB (unless I missed it) but wondering what your thoughts are here - I see KC with the biggest difference-maker on the field by miles. I see their D as potentially better than SF’s. I will take an offense lead by Mahomes with his lower talent receivers than I would Purdy with the better receivers every day of the week. The line seems like a gift to me and I know that cannot be the case. I just don’t see SF beating the Chiefs. I don’t think a case can be made that SF owns a better O or D than KC nor coaching. Why am I likely with the public here thinking KC should be about a 3.5 favorite? Probably because I am a square but what am I missing that someone who can see things better is looking at? Thanks

@Rollz

 Hope you’re right. I’m on him, Putnam, and S.H Kim

Went with Dahmen and KH Lee at +6600 for $140 each

Higgo and Simpson +10000 for $80 each

Kisner +20000 for $35

SH Kim +12500 for $50

Van Rooyen +27500 for $35

Higgo and Simpson 1st Rd leader +8000 for $20 each.

Need a win. Last was Homa at Farmer’s

@brn2loslive2win

 I ended up not taking English as he was 70:1 when I went in. I took 

Spieth, Kim and Young for $200

Hovland for $164

I’m going with:

Spieth +4000

Young +4000

Kim +4000

all $200

English +9000 $100

Thinking of cutting those bets in half and dropping $350 on or after Saturday 

Good luck all

@dusky

 I can get Kim at +4000 so maybe I will

@dusky

 Ahh he’s so frustrating in the long par 5s and even the 4s. He’s so short on those. Rory, Rahm and Cantlay are putting for eagle and Tom Kim is 100 yards out with his 3rd. I don’t know why I’m feeling Finau other than watching him through that dominant stretch a few months ago, but Sam Burns and Tom Kim have looked like great value only to appear way out of form. What do you think?

Kim has been burning me and I’m dumping him. Had English at Arnold Palmer and that sucked. Might as well take him again.

Finau +2500 - $250

Cam Young +4000 - $150

English +9000 - $100

I might change the Finau bet but will likely stick with the other two. Thought about just going $500 on Rory but I’ve never really done that with favorites. 

@dusky

 I’m on Burns +3300 and Jhooyung Kim at +4000. I’ve won both tourneys that Jhooyung won. Been betting him lately with no success by referring to him by his American name so I’m sticking with his Korean name going forward. $150 each

Just for the record, they gave me the $1250 as a free bet and have 6 days to bet it.

@MistaMiz316

 People are going to start begging for his picks like they do for Don Juan for the opposite reason 

@jesron1269

 Thank you!

So I hedged a Chiefs futures ticket by betting Philly - $1250 to win $1,000. Rather than waiting for the ticket to be graded I was going to ask the board. I realize that I can no longer profit off of this, but I can get close to my money back. That’s not in question. My question is - do I get a $1250 free bet (wager) or do I get a $1,000 free bet (potential winnings of initial wager)? I didn’t think about this until after I placed it. I read the fine print, but it isn’t clear to me. The lesser of the qualifying wager which is $1250 or the bet credit which I’m not exactly sure if that means what the wager would have won or if it is referring to something else. I have a feeling I’m not going to like the answer here and it also makes me think that you’d be stupid (like me) to bet at heavily juiced odds if my suspicion is correct. I’m hoping I get a $1250 free bet but wondering if it’ll be $1k. Thanks 

There are way too many people who think that Googling something gets you factual information every time.

“but I honestly believe that he doesn't have the weapons like he used to. Hill the past few seasons would stretch the field and create so much open space. The Chiefs would have the ball on their 10, Hill would run to the opposing 40 an Mahomes would find Kelcie underneath or take off on his own. For this game, whose stretching the field? On top of the lack of speed for the wide outs, the Eagles don't blitz that often- they get pressure with four. That's going to have one extra backer covering the middle (Kelcie and/or dig routes)”

Mahomes stats are better without Hill than they were with him. More 20+ passes, and overall more passing yards than with Hill and with less attempts. His QB rating is higher as well. It could be explained by more YAC, as I haven’t dug into that, but that was kind of Hill’s thing. The x-factor is Mahomes’ health. It doesn’t seem possible that he’ll have his mobility of a month ago and that’s a big problem. I see it as you do. I think Philly wins by a TD on paper, but in the back of my mind I am convinced that the books lose if that happens. That’s what makes me think KC wins. I’d think that regardless if Mahomes was 100% but he’s not going to be and I’d be worried about him aggravating that injury by trying to do too much with his feet when that pocket collapses. 

I don’t believe that at all. Why would a book willingly give out this information? You hear these books telling us who the smart money is on all of the time. The smart money as in the people who bet and profit for a full time job. The ones who win greater than 55% of their bets. You really think these books are going to gift that winning percentage to the public? They’re lying to you. Look on here. Look at the matchup picks on Covers. 500+ votes and 2/3 are on Philly. Look at the fact that Philly was bet into a favorite status at warp speed as the line opened. Look at any board where they’re debating the Super Bowl and the majority of people are on the Eagles.

I think I’ve seen enough to state that it’s a statistical sample. The Eagles win and the books take a huge hit. I don’t care about them making it up with props. On the line itself, the biggest hit will come from an Eagles win. I could be wrong, but I don’t think I am. My read is that the books feel confident in a KC win and that they want you betting the Eagles. Yes, I wear a tin-foil hat if you’re wondering.