pkleves

The 49ers certainly seem like the obvious pick but this year the upsets have been crazy.  In mine I had 25 entries and I’m down to 2.  The overall field has went from 37k down to just north of 2k.  Never seen this many entries out after this stage of the season.  

Again 49ers seem like the obvious pick but part of me thinks to not go with the obvious public fave as the 49ers are getting a lot of action and high percentage of bets.  Almost considering Texans instead at home - Jags look pretty terrible and good bounce back spot for Texans.  Action relatively balanced in that game.

2-0 ATS and small loss on packers money line

Buccaneers @ Lions

Weighted DVOA is very close between both these teams with the Bucs at 5.9% and Lions a little over 12%.  I was anticipating fair market value for this line being 3.5 to maybe 4 at most.  With a few sites putting this out at 6.5 I had to bite on this line and will be backing the Bucs.

Certainly the Lions have a lot to play for and will be emotional game for them but Baker mayfield has a lot to play for as well and his future with the franchise and his contract situation rides heavily on this game.  The Buccaneers have been trending while the Lions have kind of trended down recently.  All the more reason I like the Bucs as they seem to be the hotter team right now and the line seems to present value.

Pick - Buccaneers +6.5 (2 unit play)

Good luck to all 

@JDMoney14

Weren't you the one claiming SF was going to destroy Green Bay?  Same one criticizing everyone who was taking Packers +10 and putting emojis of burning money?  The fact that you are still on here is quite laughable given how wrong you were.  Takes a real loser to do that.

Packers @ 49ers

Don’t feel this opening line of 10 points is giving the Packers any respect for what they’ve accomplished recently.  Sure the 49ers are a very good team but you can’t find a team that has moved their DVOA more than the Packers.  In weighted DVOA they are #4 in the NFL at 16.4%.  In the last 3 games this team is off the charts especially on offense where they’ve now climbed to #2 in weighted DVOA.  The 49ers are at 37.5% in weighted DVOA and they have been unarguably the more consistent team throughout the year but I like to ride with the hot team who has played arguably better than the niners as of late.

Unlike the Texans/Ravens game where the differential in DVOA is a very wide gap this game is closer especially if we get the version of the Packers over the last 3 games and not the team that played let down ball against the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Giants.  Give me the hot team and the points with a little sprinkle on the money line.  Won’t be surprised if Packers shock the world again.

Pick - Packers +10 (-115) 2.5 units and ML +375 for 0.5u

@Teemancy

 Not saying they were not motivated in those previous playoff appearances.  Hell everyone should be motivated at least to some degree but I do believe there are teams that are hungrier and want it more than others and you can see it being evident on the field at times.  Guys like Lamar have been in spots similiar to this when he was younger only to fail.  Those are learning blocks for guys like him.  They were in this exact same spot when he was younger and had a home game after a bye week and got taken out right away.  Maybe motivation is not necessarily the right words as much I am highlighting his past experience.  My feeling is he’ll be more mentally for the moment. 

Wanted to include a few thoughts that I didn't include above as I can see some of these being contested points on the Texans/Ravens game.  Obviously when we look at weighted DVOA that does include some recent matchups where CJ Stroud was not playing and Case Keenum was the fill in so that certainly needs to be factored into the evaluation.  My overall opinion is still the same though.  If we look at this at a more granular level it might knock the Texans up about 5-10 percentage points in overall DVOA when I was only evaluating recent games where Stroud did play. Even if we factor that in though I’m still not coming to the conclusion though that the spread for this game shouldn’t be higher.

Just wanted to make sure I mention this so that I am giving both sides a fair consideration.

Texans @ Ravens

Stroud has been impressive this year really turning this Texans team around and moving things in the right direction.  Certainly they have some momentum but I think this weekend is going to be a very tough matchup for this team.  For the record I was on the Texans last weekend but analyzing the statistics here it just feels like there is a very wide gap between these two teams.  I like basing most of my data off DVOA and particularly when it comes to the playoffs weighted DVOA as it truly represents how a team is performing as of late.  If we are including wildcard weekend for the Texans weighted DVOA has the Ravens ranked #1 in the NFL by a pretty wide margin at 53.2% overall versus the Texans 7.8% overall.  #1 in NFL on defense and #3 on offense.  This gap in DVOA is by far and away the biggest this weekend among all the matchups.  Oddsmakers set the line at -9.5 even though a lot of the data I’m seeing is suggesting this number should be higher.  Given the recent performance of the Texans and the fact that oddsmakers are looking to keep the action balanced I’m not shocked they released this where they did cause the action has turned out to be pretty balanced so far around 50/50 currently. The DVOA data coupled with the fact that I believe the Ravens have all the right motivational reasons to be on their “A” game given their early exits in the past will be all the more reason we get the best version of the Ravens on Saturday.

This will be my biggest play this weekend.

Pick - Ravens -9.5 (4 unit play)

More to come…

Anything under a touchdown is laughable no way they release a line like that.  I think everyone is undershooting this line will be -10 to -10.5 area if this game comes to fruition.  DVOA metrics will support that as well.  Texans defense looks pretty susceptible and Texans O will face an even tougher defense on the road.  Linesmakers aren’t going to overreact to them beating up on the Browns.

@vanzack

 Good Luck this weekend! 

@Vanzack Wanted to start by saying really appreciate what you add to this forum.  Always love reading your thoughts before narrowing down my selections.  Your results obviously speak for themself and personally I believe you are one of the best nfl cappers if not the best on this forum.  Much respect bro.

I’m going to start by playing devils advocate as I’m taking Packers this weekend LARGE.  I’ll admit I’m a packer fan from Green Bay I follow them very closely and trying to not let bias stand in the way.  For the record I did bet against the pack in week 3 when they played the 49ers last and granted I was wrong on that one as their offensive line had held up much better than I had thought in that game.  One point I feel that needs to be mentioned when capping this Packers-49ers game and what asmith was alluding too above is how the Packers should be getting a bunch of key players back in this game. I know some are listed as questionable but the talk here in Green Bay and from the interviews and local radio is that all will play even if in limited fashion with this being a playoff game.  Jaire Alexander, Zadarius Smith, Whitney Mercilus on defense.  On offense David Bahktiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Meyers on the offensive line.  Also Randall Cobb at WR.  These guys are not just role players but are key pieces of this offense and defense.  I know last week you had brought up the Buccaneers returning some pieces and I think this is as or even more significant than the Bucs returning their starters.

Starting on defense Jaire was #1 PFF CB last year.  Having him back I think would allow the packers to stack the box against the run as I believe he can go 1 on 1 with Deebo.  Zadarius and Mercilus will help make a strong rotation at pass rush and pairing them with an underrated Rashan Gary (#6 PFF this year)  and a revived Preston Smith.  The 49ers admittedly do have a strong offensive line and Trent Williams is a beast but in my opinion with these two players returning this will be one of the strongest group the 49ers will face.  Also Devondre Campbell for the pack has had an outstanding season #2 LB on PFF this year and he does not even get mentioned as I believe he can help neutralize Kittle and is also an asset against the run game.  My point in all this is I do believe the packers have a stronger defense than what people think when they are fully healthy. I think that’s going to be the surprise in this game.  You can say statistics are statistics but when you add these players/variables into the mix it gives the Pack much more flexibility in how they game plan and cover up some vulnerabilities that they might have had in the run game.  They have depth at a lot of positions as well and will use rotations to keep their guys fresh.

FYI going to continue this later on with the offense but just feel this is worth talking about and love these discussions.

Adding one more cause of line move

Texans +20 (risking 1.1u to win 1u)

Upgrading the Jets play and adding one more play.

Saw some line move this morning and got a better number on the Jets so adding another unit to make it a medium play.

Jets +7.5 risking 1.1 to win 1u

More line move on this one.  I feel the whole distraction thing is getting overblown.  I know these teams are ranked similarity for DVOA but I believe Derek Carr has played much better this year and the Raiders pass rush will get home against the Eagles ranked #1 for QB pressures this year.

Raiders ML -125 risking 1.25 to win 1u

YTD - 25-21 (+10.05u)

Small Plays (all plays risking 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise)

Bengals +7 (-115)

Dolphins ML +115

Jets +7

Washington Football Team +9

Large Play (risking 3.3u to win 3u)

Chiefs -4

Xtra Large Play (risking 4.4u to win 4u)

49ers -3.5

Good luck to everyone this week! 

4-4 so far this week but hit on most of the bigger plays including the largest play the Ravens.  Up 2.5u this week as a result.

YTD - 25-20 (+13.35u) 

MNF pick

Bills -6 risking 3.3u to win 3u

Reason - Titans are the worst ranked team with a winning record in DVOA at #27 heading into this week going against the #1 DVOA team in the Bills.  Plus it’s another revenge game for the Bills as they got beat pretty good against this team last year.  The Bills are hot and I don’t care if I’m betting with Joe Public too me the Bills are a far superior team  and I don’t expect a let down from them tonight.

Good luck to everyone! 

Adding 

Browns -3 (-105) risking 1.05u to win 1u

Sorry guys meant to put week 6 in the header.

YTD 21-16 (+10.85u)

Keeping it short and sweet.  Good Luck to everyone this week! 

Small Plays (All plays at -110 odds risking 1.1u to win 1u unless stated otherwise)

Bengals -3.5 (-105)

Dolphins -3 (-105)

Texans +10

Medium Plays (All plays at -110 odds risking 2.2u to win 2u unless stated otherwise)

Cowboys -3

Washington Football Team +7 (-115)

Vikings -2.5

Large Play (all plays at -110 odds risking 3.3 to win 3u)

Ravens -2.5

Hit on the Colts last night to finish 6-4 this week.

Already have looked hard at next week.  Will post plays ASAP.

YTD 21-16 (+10.85u)

5-4 this week with a tie as well.  Hit on my two larger plays Cowboys and Bills which was key.

YTD 20-16 (+8.85u)

Adding this for tonight:

MNF

Colts +7 risking 2.2u to win 2u

Glad to see I’m on the same side as you on a lot of plays.  Good luck this week!