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Quote Originally Posted by Fugettaboutit:
I basically started betting money and handicapping at the begining of this baseball season. I've read a couple of books like, secret of sports betting professionals, how to beat the books and some others. I'm on covers allot and have now found the hardcore sports show.I'm actually doing pretty well and want to keep it up by learning more.If you know of any other sites, books or magazines that help you handicapp pls let me know. Thanxs in advance.
I am sending you a pm. I can assist you .You are going about it the right way. |
Fugettaboutit | 4 |
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The picks you will be getting will likely win 60%+ of all units. Be very cautious though until the second game after Christmas . The rhythm of the season has been interrupted. Some teams have had long layoffs. Exam week followed by the holiday season and getting ready for conference play alters the rhythm of the season. All is stable after this opening week until the last game of the regular season. Plays Ky 12 Uc Irvine 10 Hawaii 10( lot of money on them early on) LSU 5 units
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professorkopak | 1 |
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I took that game off as a play 3 days ago for very good reasons. What I do is mechanical and if something comes up in between when I posted a game I either add or subtract to strength of the game. If Central Mich. had lost their kicker instead I would have added to the strength of the game. I seldom change a game and am conservative in nature. I do not gamble, I invest. You gamble and do not invest. You should stay away from doing this as most people should. The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect different results. Be honest with yourself. You have lost money and are losing money playing games right now. Of course; you have no knowledge of my winnings or losings. Your statements totally lack logic . Those who think like you are doomed from the start. Stop and think about it. You are suggesting somebody is not a winner because he took a game off the board ? Wow! You are suggesting I am using to much information ? Wow! Do you really think that is logical? Losers complain because they are not in control of their life. If you were winning you would not bother complaining. I have seen 1000's of losers at the poker table, at the track, and at the betting parlors. I stay away from them as much as I can. Less then 3% of all people make money doing this. At the track it was 1%. Losers continued to do the same things they have done for years and years and expected different results. They were practicing insanity. Either learn to handicap for yourself or do something more constructive in your life. What I have said is true. Losers will look at what I just said and be upset with it because they are denial. If you do not like my material simply go elsewhere. |
professorkopak | 6 |
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Plays were only 3-2 yesterday 7 units up Orlando is a 12 unit play Milw is a 4 unit play |
professorkopak | 2 |
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I was asked why I deleted the Fla. Atl. game. I originally had the game as a pick em game . Fla. Atl. was missing their kicker. That is worth -1 to -3 points . Also I gave no points for any home advantage originally but it was fair to give the team from Michigan about 2 -3 points additional points. That moved the game for me from pick em to +4 or + 5. That is only a 2 or 3 point edge. If one of those 2 situations had not been a reality I would have still played the game and moved it to a 5 unit play from a 10 unit play. I play games when I think I have a 4 point edge or more. Coach Snellenberger from Fla. Atl. is now 7-0 in bowl games!! I did not know that . I pride myself in knowing things like that and should have known it. He could never have been played against! A touchdown or more underdog with recent bowl experience has won over 60% of all games in the past several years. Underdogs are the best plays in bowl games as a composite. Tomorrow I have all favorites. I got the California game in at -8 . It is now -10. If you like California and are getting it at -10 I think one has to consider lowering the investment amount . The other teams I like are less than a touchdown favorite. Bowls games , unlike regular season games can find more action on dogs then favorites. Pay very close attention to big line moves . A move of 2 or more is significant in bowl games but not necessarily in regular season games , according to my learned colleague who is an expert on the subject.
The best to all in the the bowl season. I will post more games tomorow or early Sunday.
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professorkopak | 6 |
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I lost a couple of postings somehow, including an extensive write up of Saturday's bowl games. I am not going to do the work again of the thinking processes but have posted the plays.
I will post NBA plays and College basketball plays separetly.
We have a 20,000 game data base for information we put into these games. What we do is mechanical in nature using the same numbers to manipulate the prognostication of a game so there is no guess work or any difference in our handicapping any particular game. We are coming off a series of 3 weeks or so that we had only a few regular plays in the NBA. This is the longest most extensive period we have seen for that.It is because of the flury of hot and cold teams. There has been a bias toward teams either winning more spreads (%of wins) then normal and teams losing more often then we have ever seen!! That should surprise nobody. Boston , LA and Cleveland are in a class by themselves and never have 3 teams ever been so far and away the best over the rest of the league. Two teams have competed for that title many times but never 3. The games I will give you are mechanical in nature to how we manipulated the numbers. We do the manipulations exactly the same every time. We have done this for a 12 year period as of now. The 20,000 game data base has given us imput into cause and effect relationships and has proven to have gotten a 60+ winning performance against the spread. The key is to leave ALL subjective thinking out of handicapping when doing a mechanical form of handicapping. When we do the numbers it is EXACTLY the same in all the 20,000 game data base. Losing days occur and short losing periods of time occur but NEVER has there been an extended losing period involving basketball. The most likely period of time for bad results occurs right at Christmas and at the end of the season, especially in college. The Rhythm of the season has been interrupted by the holidays and in college semister tests. It is an anti -climax time for scheduling also, and because there is a longer period usually between games underacheiving teams have a greater chances to fix their problems. Some teams improve dramatically and there is no evidence it will happen when crunching the numbers. These facts seem to happen in cycles and at certain intervals. College games stabilize themselves again the 2nd game after Christmas. The rhythm of the season has no interruptions and life becomes easier when handicapping.
I will be giving you all games and the numbers that have proven to be a winning pattern from the past. There are finally some regular NBA games that have come up.
Friday DEC 26th
Charlote 10 units
Houston 10 units
Sacr 10 units
Utah 12 units if spread is reasonable. It is not posted yet. -3 or so.
Okla City is a hot cold play at 5 units.
The unit strength of these games is determined by past results when the same information came up. It has an extensive track record and we are exceeding confident that will continue. Caution needs to be considered from Dec 23 thru Dec 27 because the rhythm of the season is different.
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professorkopak | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by louisdzone:
NCAA Basketball Betting Tip of the Day New Mexico Bowl
That is a perfect way to handicap this game. Inexperienced bowl teams do not do well as a whole. They only cover 30 some percent of the time throughout the years of my 30 years of bowl results. However ; stopping there is not the answer. Does the other team have something even more negative .. There is not much left that is worse than lack of bowl experience . One of those though is the poor play of another team. In this case Fresno State more then qualifies as a poor play team. For the last 2/3 of the season which is the only important part of the season to handicap for bowl games they were terrible. I have only 5 samples of an inexperienced bowl team playing a bad spread team. over a 30 year period of bowl games . The inexperienced team has covered 4 of those times. That is not a big sampling but it still is 80% winners and intuitivelly seems like the probable answer. If you are playing poorly that is very likely to superceed almost anything else. The lack of ability combined with the lack of confidence puts these games more in focus.
You have an excellent mind for handicapping and you do a terrific job of your write ups. I enjoy greatly reading your posts!
New Mexico Bowl 11:30 a.m. PT in Albuquerque Fresno St -3 vs Colorado St (60) Any resemblance between the Fresno State team that started the season 3-1 and the one playing in today’s game is purely a coincidence. The Bulldogs enter the game with the nation’s worst record against the spread at 2-10. And even though Fresno held on for a 7-5 mark, nearly half the wins were ugly. State beat such cupcakes as Idaho (by 13), Utah State (by 2) and New Mexico State (by 7). Throw in a loss to mediocre Louisiana Tech. As for the Colorado State Rams, well they’re just glad to be here. The Rams had to win their last two games (New Mexico, Wyoming) to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Still there’s plenty of reason to side with the underdog here, especially considering that the Rams gave Mountain West powers BYU and TCU fits before bowing by 3 and 6 points respectively. With Fresno coming off a 51-point pounding at the hands of Boise State, self-doubt has to enter in. Not so with the Rams, who are 3-1 ATS in their last four starts. COLORADO ST. |
louisdzone | 8 |
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testing
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professorkopak | 38 |
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It is depressing when you do a lot of work on a project and there is nothing to show for it. Do not let it get you down. When ones spirit is at its lowest learning is at its highest. I been there more then once. Look at the loses as a blessing rather then a curse. It gives you an opportunity to alter a thing or two . Suddenly winning patterns start emerging. It is very very important in my opinion to put all you do in precise mechanical form then back research it using the EXACT same formula for all games. Nothing should be subjective and you can put a number to your picks knowing in the long run you will win because the past determines the future. You have a good mind and that along with ambition will get you to the promise land. I hope your picks turn around soon. Here is how I approach handicapping and similar issues. I take a particular situation and look at at least 100 similar situations from the past. For example I might look at teams that have no bowl experience in the past 2 year and or 3 years or for a longer period then that. If I see that those teams are either winning or losing at least 55% of the bowl games I look at other handicapper tools to see if such and such is also part of the equation and can improve the winning%. Suddenly patterns emerge. It might be that the inexperienced team is playing a team with a bad spread record. You will find which is more important and therefore becomes the PRIMARY factor. Sometimes one thing contradicts the other and sometimes one thing strengthens the other. I did this with a number of potentially good handicapping factors. I eventually whittled down about 6 of those handicapping tools and a certain pecking order of importance emerged. I have a 20,000 game data base supporting that. Last year I taught a group of 7 people wanting to improve their handicapping skills and challenged all of them to find if the mechanical form of handicapping methods I incorporated and offered them hit less then 60%. If they could find that it produced less then 60% winners I would double their money back. None could. Of the 7 six are still in contact with me and are from 3 different continents and 4 countries.
The point I am trying to make is that one needs to dig and dig and dig until you find that which works that others do not know, especially the linemakers. It should be put in mechanical form so it is NEVER altered. If you do that and manage your money correctly you can make some serious money. For me the work is fun . We just discovered a major breakthru which I immediately told my six people about. I did not expect that to happen but it has changed the winning % a whooping 5 percentage points. After 35 years I still try to improve what I do.
Do not respond to negative destructive criticism. There are plenty of those people around and they are almost always losers in life. Good fortune on your picks.
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BucBacker | 226 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kbit: I could not remember. You are right. Every Christmas for 2 days surrounding it, strange things happen in sports. The rhythm of the season is altered and the unlikely becomes the norm . Today it was LA ending Bostons streak, Chris Paul having his steals streak end at 100+ games, Cleveland did not show up and their huge spread run is now compromised . Yesterday N D's losing bowl streak ended at 9 games. This has been going on for a long time. The worse time of the year to decipher basketball and in general all sports is now. It always has been that way but it is very short lived. I think I figured the reasons and I will pass on all games played during this period in the future though I had only 2 games at small amounts . When I taught my handicapping class in college I had that down as a dead time to play games. The other dead time is the last game of the season in basketball. I almost never play those games unless they have meaning. I answered your response in my bowl game area. it is not up for some reason so I listed the games I liked without the write up. Happy holidays to you .
Professor,
Sampson and Virginia lost to Chaminade. One of the greatest upsets of all time. Not as good as the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey time. Now that is the greatest upset ever. |
BucBacker | 226 |
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Games for the week end . For some reason my posting of my college plays disappeared . I had a big write up on them and will not rewrite the reasoning for the picks again since it is time consuming. Perhaps it will show up . I had a lot of really good stuff on that write up. I have 3 reccomended plays for Saturday's games. W Virg 10 Fla St 8 California 7 Originally I had Fla Atl for tomorrow (Fri) I am now passing it. Here were my reccomended plays so far going into this week. Strong play Wake Forest 15 units won , very good play S. Miss 10 units won ,Color St hot cold method play 5 units won. Unit amount 30-0 3-0 I have a 20 unit play coming up this week. I have about 2 or 3 of those a year. Also most of the next games are playable. I feel very confident about them.
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professorkopak | 6 |
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I will give you some scheduling situations in the coming weeks.
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professorkopak | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kbit:
Wow Professor, I really wish you were not backing off your FAU pick. What made you change your mind. I got on FAU and am pretty confident in them. I was actually at the Motor City Bowl 2 years ago when CMU beat Mid Tenn St and was partying in Downtown Detroit last year when CMU barely lost to Purdue. I think CMU might be a little tired of going to Detroit every December for this game and might not take it seriously. Maybe ill off set my FAU wager with an over wager. I know you aren't to big on totals, but this one should go over. A lot of CMU's games do and with a couple of FAU defensive starters suspended it should come through. Well i wish you were still confident in your pick but im staying with it(cause i have no choice now). BOL in the future.
We looked at some things that put this game in the neutral area. There are good games coming up Saturday and the remainder of the week. I am very excited about one game and will make it a 20 unit play.( I have about 2 or 3 of them a year) I agree with you about this game going over. That is one reason I backed off. In the second half they may not be able to stop each other. Fla Atl was a reccomended play by a group I respect so you may have the right side. Igot the game at C Mich to win by 4 to 10 or an average of 7. I will give you a good totals method of play later . Remind me. It hits about 62% of the time. I do not like totals as a whole because of overtime in college. I had an under covered by 24 and lost in overtime! On the other hand sometimes the weather causes overs to be a bad play because of wind and playing fields. Playing conditions are on a fine line when the weather turns to rain and cold weather. Also somes fields are badly keep. The N. D. Hawaii game players slipped all day long. Having said why I do not do totals, the very, very best plays are when a game is being played on a muddy field that the teams are lucky to score 20 points between them . There are 3 fields in the MAC that this occurs when conditions are right. Last year Akron played Miami on a unplayable field. Final score 7-0. |
professorkopak | 38 |
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No play on the game Friday.I DELETED THE PLAY
Saturday starts with the West Virginia -North Carolina game.
This is an easy call. North Carolina has not been to a bowl in 3 years. That is not good. The goal of these type teams is to GET to a bowl game . They have been to only 1 bowl game in the last 5 years, losing to Boston College 37 -24 as a 2 point favorite. North Carolina faded in the last half of the season. They beat a fading Duke team by 1/2 point , lost to North Carolina State by a whooping 42 points and lost to Md. by 5 in the last 3 games. They averaged losing to the spread by 15 1/2 in these 3 games . An inexperienced bowl team combined with a fading team makes N. C. a not so good prospect. They have gone down 3 points to the spread since it opened for this game. West Virginia on the other hand has played somewhat better as the season went on. They have played 7 bowl bound teams in their last 8 games this year losing only too 2 of those teams. One went into overtime the other was lost by 4 points.They have averaged beating these 7 teams by 7 points. West Virginia has had a great bowl run in the last 3 years beating Geogia, Georgia Tech and a very good Oklahoma team. There are some key older players on this team who are highly motivated to go out a winner. This is a 10 star play. Games like this cover about 70% of the time.
The next game is the Florida State - Wisconsin game. Florida State has played 8 straight bowl bound teams losing to 3 of them and losing to the spread to 4 of them. The 4 spread loses were to hot teams with a combined 34 -9 spread record. Losing the last game to Florida in the last game is nothing to be ashamed of. The number 1 ranked team won all spreads in the last half of the season. They beat Maryland by 32 to the spread in the game before that. Florida State was a very predictable team losing to hot teams but beating the rest. Florida State badly wants to redeem themselves for the embarrassing loss to Kentucky in last year's bowl game.
Wisconsin the other hand has a challenging season. The 3 best teams they played they lost to the spread and got blown out to Penn State 48 -7, then Iowa 38 -7 and then, at the time , a struggling Ohio State team 20-17. They ended the season barely beating Minnesota as a 13 1/2 point favorite and should have lost to lower division Cal Poly scoring 2 late td's to beat them by a point. It is really bad to have played 2 lesser teams as badly as they did going into a bowl game. This is a 8 unit play for me. The spread was -5 1/2 when I played this game.
The next game California - Miami is a game of 2 teams going opposite directions. California beat the spread by an average 9 to their last 2 games and Miami lost their last 3 games by an average of 9. Miami in my opinion is not well coached and they have showed little when playing better teams.Also they lost 3 games straight up as a favorite and barely won as a 17 point favorite to a lower Div 1 team , that being Central Florida.
They are a dull team and have underacheived in their last 2 years and did not even get to a bowl last year ! As for California they have something to offer. They were a hot spread team. They are peaking at the end of the year. They played USC as good as anybody short of Oreg. St this year. They were 9 -3 against the spread and showed some grit throughout the year. The only thing I do not like is the spread . They are favored by 8. I make this a 7 unit play though.
For the bowl year I am 3-0 and 30 units ahead .
Wake Forest 15 units
S Miss 10 units
Color St 5 units
I hope we can add to that Saturday!!!!
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professorkopak | 38 |
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There are 2 plays Thursday , Christmas day. Boston is a sweet play at +2. In 29 games they have beaten that spread amount 27 times. I expected the spread to be -1. Cleveland is a play also. Do the college games with this method. You very likely will be happy.
I will read the sane responses tomorrow. If you do not like my material just simply go elsewhere as I do when something does not strike my fancy. There is a lot of stuff out there to look at, so go find it.
I will have some good bowl games coming up. There are a couple of hot- cold plays in football also. The Color. St.- Fresno State game already hit and hopefully the other 2 games will hit. I have had a very good bowl track record in the past. I am 3-0 so far on all playable games this year. There is a very very strong play coming up next week. Check it out I will be posting it the day of the game.( Dec 31) It is a rare 20 unit play.
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professorkopak | 48 |
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The games tomorrow include 2 plays. Boston is a nice hot cold play at +2 . I thought they would be a point favorite. Cleveland vs Washington is also a hot cold play. I have not been posting these plays because I gave you the method on how to find them. It is up to you to find them. They are kicking butt. I am getting very few NBA plays because so many teams are hot or cold. Cold teams have been coming up with my regular play method , but I pass them because they are not eligible to be played. College plays will be hot again. I expect them to hit 60+% of the time starting next week. The lowest ebb for college plays for me is this time of the year. Long layoffs from test taking and the holiday break that interferes with a teams rythem, the start of conference play for most conferences and the fact that more teams find themselves at this time of the year then any other comes into play. It is the end of the beginning. The only other challenging time for me is the last game of the season.
I traditionally get very hot starting with the second game after Christmas. I am very confident that will happen again.
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professorkopak | 51 |
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I will be having some plays for the bowl games starting Saturday. I have pased the last few games including Memp, Ari, Tcu and Hawaii as stated. Also I am deleting the game Friday as a play. Fla Atlantic is no longer a play. I repeat, Fla Atlantic is no longer a play ! I am passing the game. I will have two games Saturday. There will be as many as 18 games I will play. One of those games is a very very strong play. I will have it as a super rare 20 unit play. Notre Dame found themselves in their bowl game. I passed on the game but would have played Hawaii had I been forced to. When you lose 9 straight bowl games and are favored by 2 1/2 you are asking a team to do what they have not done in a long time. Its almost like betting on the Cubs to win the World Series.
Tomorrow the Celtics are a play in basketball against the Lakers
Happy holidays to all.
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professorkopak | 38 |
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Good luck to you. I think you have the right side. Notre Dame is being asked to do something they have not done in the last 9 bowl games, that is too WIN. You even have one or two points to work with. I never play a team that has not accomplished the task at hand if they have a long extended streak of losing. The hardest place to play in college football is the long many 1000's of miles trip to Hawaii. Many a heavily favored team has gone there only to struggle in a hard fought contest. Back in the 70's I saw Ralph Sampson the iconic college basketball star and his number 1 ranked Virginia team go to Hawaii and play a team that is not even normally on the board . Hawaii Hilo or something like tha is who they were playing. They were a 30 plus point favorite. Unfortunately for them they lost straight up. It was during Christmas and might have even been Christmas day. It is also harder to focus on a game when you in that great Hawaii climate and are coming from the cold midwest.
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BucBacker | 226 |
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What you have is a good starting point. You must add on this. Line makers are not stupid they are sharp as can be. If a line is seemingly off it might be a trap. There are circumstances that teams will go over par and under par in relationship to what seems the norm. Have you ever seen the line on a second half game that is totally out of sync with the game line. Bad teams often get peculiar 2nd half lines and probably cover More often then not when it looks too good to be true. There are many things that are considered when handicapping totals. The linemakers know most of this. Here is a sample. When a high scoring team loses to the under by 10 or more they average about 5 points above their average in their next game unless they are mired in a scoring slump. The linemaker adds a couple points on this and the seemingly good line becomes a trap. Handicapping is not a simple 1 -2 -3 and here is the answer problem. There are many things that get in the way of simple handicapping stragedies. The idea is to be aware of them and act upon them when they come up.
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expertcapper | 265 |
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Basketball coaches and the players look at the up coming schedule to see the opponents they will be playing. Let us say an average team is on the road and has 5 games in 8 days. That is an energy zapper and it is likely the coach will at least on a subconscious level pick and choose the games he thinks are the best for him to win. If he is playing 2 teams that win 70% or more of their games , another average team and 2 losing teams it would not be surprising that he has his focus on the latter 3 games. It is not that they want to lose to the better team, it is rather they are looking to win 3 of the road games and pick and choose their best chances. Making the playoffs is everything. On the other hand a really good team playing the same schedule of 5 road games in 8 days may be playing 2 really good teams , 2 average teams ,and a bad team. Would it be surprising that the least amount of effort used would be on a team like Okla City. They might be saving their energy for another day. Okla City has been a monster this year covering double digit spreads. Teams on the road playing them are often coming from or going to Texas where all 3 teams are good and the coach uses the Oklahoma game as a" resting game", playing just good enough not to cover. I am sure many teams are capable of beating them by more but are preserving their energy. Okla City has been a super 2nd half play when far behind in the first half. Opponents are on cruise control often times when his happens. This is a pattern that is likely to continue. Look for games coming up in the schedule and see if you can detect useful information from it and devope some patterns. I always like when a team is playing a series of good teams or in the other direction playing only average to not so good teams. Cleveland won 11 straight pointspreads just recently, partly because they had an easy schedule in that period. Later this year they will have a pocket of 5 games against some good teams. I think that the hottest point spread team in the NBA will lose at least 2 of these games to the spread if not 3. The future schedule can be you friend if you pay attention to it. |
professorkopak | 2 |
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