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Quote Originally Posted by Crookid:
If no one uniquely hits the rainbow 6 which should be at least $6 million, then any pick 6 winning ticket will have a claim to the massive pot. You dont have to be the only one with a unique set of winners. If it comes all chalk, expect a $10,000 ticket for a .20 bet. If it carries to Saturday, there will be 20-25 million in the pool for the mandatory payout. It will be a slight -EV proposition like it typically is... that's not to say you shouldn't jump in.... just that you still need to handicap some value into it. And an all chalk ticket will not pay close to 10k..... paid 15k in January with a bomb in the last leg. You could be looking at 10% of that if it chalks out..... but I'm not going to argue math on an internet message board. No win situation. Good luck |
Crookid | 2 |
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Why hedge? You finally have equity in the wagers and you're trying to give it back?? |
jman2303 | 11 |
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Rolling money line parlay @ +220 and +400 nets you 15-1 on your initial investment so I'd say 12-1 is bad value
Btw, yes, on average they would be a bigger dog than +400 to nova/Kansas
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lmb4321 | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Moneymaker923:
This line seems extremely fishy as Michigan is in a lot of people's final four. I'm a huge Michigan fan and I see absolutely no problem with them handling Montana then either houston or San Diego St. What am I missing? They're no better than 50% to make it and probably more like 45%.... I see nothing wrong with the line. |
Moneymaker923 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Conley12: I will update this page up until the big race. Feel free to comment your picks below or anything else that I have missed. GL in the Belmont! 1 Twisted Tom- ML: 20-1 New York bread colt has so far been in the winners circle 3 times but not against graded stakes fields. 2 Tapwrit- ML: 6-1 Had a bad trip in the Derby and broke bad as well in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. He needs to stay out of trouble if he wants to win. 3 Gormley ML: 8-1 Speed Figures has declined in every single start ever since he won in January at Santa Anita. 4 J Boys Echo ML: 15-1 He has the greatest closing speed in the race. Can he win though? 5 Hollywood Handsome ML: 30-1 Seems to be outclassed in this field. I think he is a bust in this race. 6 Lookin At Lee ML: 5-1 I don't like his running style but should be used in your exotic plays. 7 Irish War Cry ML: 7-2* (*-Favourite) Curlin's son should rate this field with his "ware-down" speed and pace. A must-have in your picks. 8 Senior Investment ML: 12-1 This horse has improved in every race, but his running style may keep him too far back. Your decision if you want to play them. 9 Meantime ML: 15-1 Has loads of early speed, but he is not an American Pharoah. Last horse to go wire-to-wire was Da'Tara in 2008. 10 Multiplier ML: 15-1 A no show in the Preakness and also has bad pedigree concerns. Both his sire The Factor and his broodmare sire Trippi were both sprint horses. 11 Epicharis ML: 4-1 A 2nd Japanese horse to start in the Belmont since Lani came up 3rd in a well deserved race. This horse should have some money bet on him 12 Patch ML: 12-1 My favourite longshot play in the Derby and Belmont. He skipped the Preakness just like his sire Union Rags in 2012 and ended up winning the race. Like father like son? My Picks are to follow tomorrow morning/afternoon! Including Pick4's, Best bets and longshot plays
Not saying I like Gormley but depending on which figures you use, he's either declining or he's circling back to a top.... I respect Beyer and he's a legend but for my money, the Thoro-graph figures are the absolute best tool for any serious handicapper. Tapwrit seems very likely to "trip out" and he could even be ready for a career best. To me it's a 2 horse race between he and IWC. Good luck this weekend
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Conley12 | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565: I used to come to this site a lot to get insight into the games and what sharp bettors were thinking. There were some really classy and good cappers on here offering up valuable insight for free. One by one through the years they have all dropped off. Now the site is filled with a bunch of wannabees and attention horrors with very few guys who know what the hell they are doing. The mods have stood by and not done their jobs of being mods, that is short for "moderators" those in charge of keeping the dipchits off of their site. They have left the great cappers to the nimwits who would crucify them for every loss to the point there would be no reason to even post on here. It is sad, I find myself coming to this web page less and less and not really missing it. I have been now using other sites for information and the premier gambling site has regressed to a bunch of whiny adolescent wannabees. I have asked for the "mods" to rejuvenate the site with another epic showdown between two titan cappers but those wishes have fallen on deaf errors. I signed on today for the NCAAB national championship and other than Scal, there seems to be very little decent information available here. I am 53 and make well over 200k/year and would probably a very good consumer from an advertising point of view but guys, you are losing me, and probably hundreds of other guys like me. Clean it up boys and get some better content on here or be left having your base be a bunch of high school dropouts living in their mother's basements and having zero disposal income but the ability to yell, berate and insult your users to the point that they are all you have left. Crash- Yes, 100% spot on. Onto more important things though... I laid down a $20 future back in February on the Heels @ 6-1!! I mean, I know they're gonna roll tonight but how do I go about properly hedging this... Guaranteed money bro
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Crashdavis565 | 58 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gfinger: You clearly don't know how to properly hedge then. Anytime you can lock in some guaranteed money vs the chance of winning nothing and losing your initial bet, you should hedge 100% of the time. The point of gambling is to win money no? It's not hoping to cash in on a lotto ticket. Oh no, I understand what hedging is and how it's done. Go back and re-read what I wrote... In the long run, you should not hedge out of +EV situations.
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DukeTrinity11 | 31 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Gavinnick: Basketball gods of UNC versus the Zags lol I'm going ham all out on UNC I have never seen such a perfect set up The NCAA divided up the state of Carolina Duke South North Bathroom ban (no lesbian and gays ) to throw steam on Carolina Fake classes hate monguring at UNC lingering around Pound the daylights out of UNC people basically free money This is great. Really. Every single reliable metric out there makes Gonzaga a favorite yet unc is easy money? Good luck with that. If the refs stay out of the way, Zags may run it up on them. That's the reality, not some fanboy Carolina nonsense
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Gavinnick | 11 |
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The line is absolutely off by at least a few points. Books don't need to beg for unc money though so here we are... Better team getting points
There is not ONE single metric that justifies Gonzaga as a dog in this game. Not one.
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jkipfer | 16 |
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My absolute favorite Covers character is "dude, you're an idiot if you don't take guaranteed money" guy.
If you continually hedge out of +EV situations, you will end up with less money in the long run. Fact.
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DukeTrinity11 | 31 |
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This doesn't change your expected value on each bet.
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Dugan8 | 4 |
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Man would I love to short Gunnevera at that price. Horses that run neg 2's on thoro-graph in Feb of their 3 year old campaign are not good bets to win the derby. Especially at 7-1.
Always Dreaming is extremely interesting at 40-1. The horse will be 2-1 Saturday and with a win, single digit odds in Louisville.
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LVOptiontrader | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieskatrina: Agree, so sloppy! Great appreciation for teams that actually run a play and work the ball around. Difference is when you got huge talent you dont have to run plays. Get me the ball and set me a screen girl. I know I am double teamed but watch this garbage I go fade away from 3 land. I'll take a game plan and real college basketball over that street ball any day. Is what it is. When you can recruit I guess the game plan has to fit the players. Yup. Gonzaga should pick unc apart. I'm thoroughly convinced that we watched the de facto national title game last Thursday night.
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JBelfort92 | 18 |
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Unc probably a small favorite and I'll be making a max bet on Gonzaga. There isn't a metric out there that makes Gonzaga a dog in is game. Line will be formed 100% on public perception.
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DWade9 | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Pho-20: Gonzaga route unc lol . Zags might get upset Saturday by South Carolina . Great, thanks. Is that your way of telling me unc played well yesterday? They didn't. They played undisciplined. Too much one on one nonsense, bad shots, etc This isn't a groundbreaking take though. It's a typical Roy Willuams team
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JBelfort92 | 18 |
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Yes, the game came down to the wire and held my interest but man that was sloppy basketball. Just dumb shots on both ends. Each guy trying to out-athlete the other. I think Gonzaga may rout unc if the Tar Heels even survive Saturday
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JBelfort92 | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan: Parlaying kansas wins would make you more profit than 4:1 i think? On average, yes. Which is the only way to view it.
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drepro89 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Where were you throughout the season? With a decent power ranking/metric established formula you would of done well. But this tourney, a lot of those type of bettors have been getting squashed for the most part...I can't speak for everyone. What do you mean when you say "those types of bettors"?
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rm990 | 5 |
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Lurked/posted on here for a while and it strikes me as odd that you don't really see much discussion of power ratings, metrics, juice, probabilities, shopping the best number, etc.
Now I'm not asking anyone to give away their numbers or edges but it seems strange that these are the things most paramount to our success as bettors and it's almost as if they're shunned on this site. Most veterans know that the margins are slim in this game and we need every advantage we can get. If you don't have a rating to anchor a team to, you are absolutely "gambling" in the truest sense. You can't possibly properly evaluate a bet without it. You feel UCLA is a lock tonight? Great. Give me some objective reasoning for it. Tell me what you power rated the game and why you unbelievably came up with UCLA the favorite. If you power rated it Kent-2 but feel the Bruins have some intangibles going for them, tell us what and why (subjective). I read quite frequently about guys who've made future bets on teams to win the tourney at awful prices when the correlated parlay will pay twice as much. What kind of sense does this make? Rant over. Hopefully we can clean this place up a bit and get some productive handicapping discussions going. There are some intelligent people on here and this should be a place to learn and exchange ideas and not a place to tout or have a pissing contest.
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rm990 | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565: Never should do this but it just seems that the Zags have gotten such an easy draw. They beat a decent WV team that is very low on talent but very well coached and look to draw an easy team in the elite 8 too (Florida could give them a hell of a game and even win) They will come to the Final 4, essentially untested against a team that has either beaten or is UNC,Kansas, UCLA or Ky. I will be betting the right side of my bracket in the final, that is for sure. No... I think they were tested last night. That is about as physical of a game as you will ever see. WV very strong on all metrics this year. May be the toughest game Zags see
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Crashdavis565 | 4 |
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