rollmaestro

Now THERE'S some sound reasoning we can all go to the window with, huh?

I hear you. I just believe that too much is being made of Legursky's inferiority @ the center position. And I'm being sincere when I state that I expect PITT to run the ball more to take some of the strain of off the new center... let's revisit this particular topic after the game, shall we? I really think I have something here, obviously... if PITT sticks to the run, they stand a better chance of winning considering GB's pass-rush and secondary.

Ditto veeman, and #43 is indeed a force, and if his heel was 100% I'd feel even better about Pittsburgh's chances to slow down GB's offense... I'm a Skins honk myself, woe is me...

GL tomorrow bud

With all due respect DBarsch, all Vegas really "wants" is a line that the public perceives is "fair", one that will encourage even money on both sides of the equation, and so far they've got it.

At least that's their "claim"...

GL

I'd like the Over 45 a HELLUVA lot more if I had supreme confidence that one of these teams would notch a defensive score... with 1 good & 1 GREAT defense squaring-off in Dallas, I expect plenty of punts, but moreover, LONG drives from PITT on the ground and not much scoring by GB, and by not much I mean LESS than 20pts for the game... for now I am on the Under 45 and PITT +3/PITT ML...

DBarsch, I predicted late last week that lots of "late" $$$ would indeed come in on PITT, especially if the line got to +3, which it has... but you say that PITT ML $$$ is coming in? No real surprise I suppose, but those 3pts sure look tastier imo if you believe that Arodg has a late TD drive in him should the Pack trail by 4pts (whether PITT leads 17-13, 20-16, or 21-17)... I can see this SB pushing ONLY if GB has the ball last and somebody in the PITT secondary blows a coverage/slips and falls etc... for the record I'm firmly on PITT +3/Under45...

Ok, this thread is turning into a bit of a pissing contest at this point...

Let's all agree that the Packers' secondary earns the nod over Pittsburghs'-- not exactly a secret. Woodsen and Williams are a formidable duo, they are athletic, and opportunistic, and have good hands ie they make INTs.  But that facet of defense is merely a component of the Green Bay "team". Regarding their respective  pass-rush, I believe it's a toss-up, tho GB is quicker off the edge while PITT is more powerful up the middle. Now, ARodg has looked impressive this postseason save for the 2ndH @ CHI after Pepper's came up under Rodgers' chin, after which he looked pedestrian. On the other side, Big Ben has not one, but TWO rings --- and he's chomping at the bit for a 3rd... like him or despise him, the guy just gets it done, and he's the FIRST person to admit that it is rarely "pretty" or whatever... the fact is, offensively Pittsburgh's rushing attack is far superior to that of the Pack, and conversely, nobody is BETTER at stopping the run than the Steel Curtain. When healthy, the best defender on the field for EITHER team is #43 wearing black n gold, ergo his well-earned Defensive Player of the Year honors... Crosby has the edge over Suisham in the kicking game, but in the kick-off return department, Pittsburgh ranked 12th in the NFL I believe...

Bottomline, two very evenly matched teams, but Green bay's one-dimensionality on offense gives me pause to agree that Green Bay is the better "team"... historically, the BEST teams both run the ball AND stop the run, and PITT is the only squad in this SB match-up that I can say excels in both departments...

For the simple facts that:

1) GB allows 4.7ypc to opposing rushers, something PITT is CERTAIN to exploit and exploit very well

2) PITT C Pouncey is basically "out" and Legursky is more effective as a run-blocker than a pass-blocker, ergo MORE ground-game emphasis

3) PITT will surely wish to shorten the game/spin the clock in an effort to limit ARodg's opportunities/avoid a "shoot-out", and they will do this via the run imo

4) Mendenhall is PRECISELY the type of physical, downhill-runner, who gets gobs of yardage AFTER contact, that Green Bay has had trouble with

5) I expect PITT to run bc I expect them to have the LEAD throughout the majority of the contest

...I expect Mendenhall's carry total to be Over 19.5 for the game, perhaps as early as late in the 3rdQ frankly... Mendy goin' Over 75.5 yards is another prop I would feel very comfortable wagering on btw

GL

I hear you completely HighTide... PITT's corners frighten me frankly, moreover, the Packer's WRs ability to consistently create seperation scare me too, and that's why I expect the Steeler Dbs/Corners to "jam" those GB receivers off the line each and every time, no free-releases Sunday nite... if that PITT pass-rush can get off the ball as swiftly as I believe they will, then I expect Rodgers' timing with them to be compromised, complete with hurries, knock-downs, and more than a couple HARD sacks despite Rodgers' mobility in and around the pocket... I just do not see Gb slowing down Mendenhall often enough to force Big Ben and co into must-pass situations or many 3rd and longs... should be a great game regardless, and may the best team win, officiating aside... finally, w/. regard to GB never trailing by more than a TD all season long, there's a first time for everything...

linekilla

Nobody can get me off the Steelers + the chalk in this spot, and I feel strongly about the Under 45 too provided there isn't a defensive or special teams TD...

Nice write-up veeman, if not a little long-winded (but who am I to talk, right? heh heh heh)... but over the past 4-5 seasons, is there ANYONE better at making the necessary defensive halftime adjustments than DICK LEBEAU?!?  Whatever is "working" for Green Bay in the 1stH won't be working for them in the 2ndH if Lebeau's history is any guide. And as long as we're talking "reality", I have a few points to make... just hear me out...

With regard to Polamalu and the health of his heel, just know that he's had 2 weeks in a hyperbaric chamber to speed healing, not to mention additional intensive re-hab, and if that's not enough I fully expect him to "take the needle" if need be on Sunday. Troy is a difference-maker on D, his sideline-to-sideline coverage and ability to anticipate/jump routes over the middle and pick off tipped or batted balls at the line may very well be a key to Pittsburgh stalling drives/creating timely turnovers/making the "big" play... I'm not worried about #43's health in this instance, his threshhold for pain is high just like all of his Pacific-Islander/Somoan brothers, and he wouldn't miss this one for the world. Troy will be on the field and playing at a high level imho, being sure to keep everything IN FRONT of him, per usual, as will Ike, McFadden, and Clark for that matter. Simply think "discipline"...

Next, I'd like to touch on the unfortunate loss of rookie All-Pro C M.Pouncey on Pittsburgh's O-line; while his absence might scare some into thinking that the Steelers just won't be able to protect Big Ben adequately enough for him to make his throws/reads in a timely manner, just know that Legursky has had 2 weeks to review the playbook & snap-counts etc, so I am not worried about the C-to-QB exchange at all; Legursky is himself a professional too and would likely be starting for many NFL teams. Moreover, Pouncey's loss will more or less force Pittsburgh to do what they do best historically --- RUN the FOOTBALL. Considering Green Bay's woeful stat of allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season, I don't see why Pittsburgh won't take FULL advantage of the Packers' deficiency in this area --- which also opens up play-action pass downfield to speedster Wallace should Green bay become complacent, expecting the run on so-called "running" downs... As good a D-Coordinater as Capers is, he won't be on the field trying to slow down/tackle the brute that is Rashard Mendenhall, a downhill runner who has since come of age and into his own since the Steelers' last SB victory sgainst AZ, a team that was most proficient vs the run in fact. In a nutshell, Pouncey's loss may very well be Legursky's gain and a blessing in disguise, as he won't be asked to pass-block for even a majority of Pittsburgh's offensive plays, he will instead be asked to RUN-BLOCK, and this should keep him fresh along with the rest of PITT's admittedly short-handed O-line.

Finally, one cannot discount Pittsburgh's OWN pass-rush, which is as formidable as their ability to stop the run. Now, Green Bay's own struggles to effectively run the football (since the loss of Ryan Grant early in the season) are well-documented... some here backing the Pack are calling upon the use of misdirection, delayed draws, or screens to Brandon Jackson in an effort to slow down Harrison & co and the Steel Curtain's own pass-rush --- but I just don't see it materializing on a consistent enough basis, especially if Green bay is playing catch-up. Hell, even when BJax ran all over my Redskins early in the season to the tune of 150+ combined yds, the packers STILL came up short, losing yet another close game.

On the whole, the team that is better at both running the football AND stopping the run is... (drumroll plz) Blitzburgh --- IN SPADES, my friend. The Steelers' unparallelled aptitude in these departments is part coaching, part personel, but by running often on offense, I expect Pittsburgh to shorten the game and in turn limit ARodg's opportunities with the ball, OWNING the clock battle. And by relegating the Packer offense to their true one-dimensional identity (passing, obviously) I believe that Pittsburgh has the athletes, wisdom, and skill to create their own chances for turnovers, 3-and-outs, but ultimately punts. And should the Steelers succeed in knocking ARodg on his ass often enough -- or even knock him OUT of the game, then all of Green Bay's hopes are dashed completely, and it's all over but the cryin'... without Rodgers under center, Green Bay is just another NFC "also-ran" I think you'll agree...

GL regardless my friend

Going a little contrarian and am on the Under 45 myself, one good D in GB and one GREAT D in PITT, plus the Packer's inability to effectively run the ball means more punts than usual and the total coming in under 45...

GL regardless, all over PITT+3 here too, they don't and WON'T need any points tomorrow nite imo...

True dat, wolv, and as good as the GB pass-rush is, they just aren't as good as that G-Men bull-rush that was able to disrupt Brady and his timing w/ his receivers...

BUT...

AZ didn't give up an embarrassing 4.7ypc either, and Mendenhall has since matured and has become a devastating power-back in PITT's offensive scheme. Meanwhile, nobody is better at stopping the run in the NFL than Pittsburgh, the best defense in the business... to wit, Green Bay has struggled to run the ball ALL SEASON LONG, save for Starks' nice outing in the playoffs... the loss of Pouncey may be a blessing in disguise, bc now Legursky simply won't be asked to pass-block for 60min, therefore I fully expect PITT will lean heavily on their rushing attack until Green bay slows them down...

Do yourself a favor and just throw those other SB rushing stats out of the window in this case MassCap, based on whose healthy for PITT's O-Line and the fact that GB is inconsistent at best rushing the football...

ALSO on the Under 45 here wolv, bc I believe that by running the ball often, PITT spins the clock, shortens the game, and limits ARodg's opportunities with the ball. Hence, in addition to Pittsburgh winning the clock battle on Sunday by employing a run-heavy scheme on the broad shoulders of Rashard Mendenhall, complete with extended drives and tons of first downs (GB gives up 4.7ypc!), Ben will make the necessary reads to move the chains on 3rd downs (Ben does this VERY WELL) while refusing to merely putting it up for grabs with loose throws etc... look for Heath Miller to emerge as a key to these drives... at any rate, experience MATTERS in a game like this one, and nobody can argue that PITT doesn't have a definitive EDGE here.

frankly, I don't believe that GB even reaches 20 points, while I expect PITT to score btw of 21-24... U45 for me too.

Agree Wolfie...

I am a broken record when I say that PITT is both better at running the football AND stopping the run on D.

It really could be that simple come Sunday afternoon, anyway, give me PITT+3 vs a one-dimensional offense like Green Bay's EVERY time...