Some questions come to mind for your model to be  worthy of consideration : (won't debate the optimistic 60%,;more reasonable, in my opinion would be 54-56% and even then, there will be good years and bad years, believe me.)

Is your model just based on  football season? College/Pro vs. Against the Spread? You are using a baseline of 365 games - if football season that is 18 games approx. a week. That is a lot of action and a ton of research to support 18 football plays a week. Playing no moneylines? The model as you describe would not apply to hockey, baseball or other moneyline sports. If it is just football, that is a long offseason if you plan on being a Pro and just playing foots.

Going into the competition, I would have to say on the domestic side, I would give the nod to USA Downhill Skier Julia Mancuso.

On the international front, I need to see some of the competition up close and personal before making a selection.

Stats are misleading - the last four times the 9ers played in the Eastern time zone, they were against "powerhouses" like the Jaguars, the Titans, the Redskins and the Buccaneers - and the week before those games they did not fly to GB and play in slugfest, subzero weather, conditions then fly back to San Fran and then fly back out to play the 12-4 Panthers - whoa re 7-1 at home (only loss to Seattle Week 1) and on an eight game winning streak.

But don't get me wrong, I did say it could not be a factor, -maybe what I should have said is it will not be the major factor - the key to this game is takeaways and the winner will be who has taken better care of the footaballa'.

49ers have to deal with their Pacific time body clocks playing in an early game on Eastern time. Never easy. And coming in a day early or whatever does nothing in that short a time. The Noon EST kickoff will f"eel like" 9am PST.

But with today's modern medicines and various 5 hr energies, Starbuck's coffee with jacked up caffeine and those strange smelling salts I have always wondered about, it should not be a factor.

Lawrence Tynes shocked everyone when he hit a 47 yarder in overtime to beat the Packers on January 20th, 2008 in sub-zero conditions in GB. Final: New York Football Giants 23, Green Bay Packers 20.

The Packers barely lined up for the Giants FG play thinking NY was pulling something, like hoping for offsides, etc. Needless to say, you could have heard a pin drop in Lambeau that night when that friggin' frozen ball somehow sailed through the uprights.

Anything can and does happen in the NFL. Tynes did miss a 36 yarder as time expired in regulation - another reason the Pack felt the 47 yarder in overtime was delusional.

All that said, I still like your chances on the prop bet. Chances are really in your favor and at +187, it is worth a shot. GL.

The "brain trust" in the front office started the "selling" on Monday with the season ticket holders and limited everyone to only four tickets - then they opened it up Tuesday to the general public, again, allowing only four per purchase. Everyone knows the weather forecast - it has been single digits for over a week and people are friggin' tired of it. I had to laugh when Harbaugh decided to come a day early - fact is Saturday may get to 20 and then the real cold front comes in Sat night. It is forecast for -2 now on Sunday and with the late start, it could be -10 during the game - wind chill will be about -20. You want to bring your family to that? It has nothing to do with a lack of enthusiasm of the fan base. Poorly managed ticket sales, a very short window and some brutal weather ahead. Call it a perfect storm. These are all bowl seats left mostly on the end zones - although there is not a bad seat in the house, as a season ticket holder who deferred on this game - I am grabbing a bottle of Macallun 12 and throw some tenderloins on and sit back to enjoy Buck & Aikman (if that is possible) - I am too old for another cold one in Lambeau and I can say that because I have been to many, many of them over the years.

The number of unsold tickets is down to 1,500 (at average of $120) as of 5PM CST Thursday (source The Fan 107.5 in Green Bay). League granted another 24hrs - so by tomorrow afternoon, you can rest easy it will be a sellout. Time Warner will buy whatever is left and donate them to some charities. Too many local advertisers for this game are nervous about a blackout, too say nothing of a half of Wisconsin. The ticket sales were handled horribly by the Packers front office from pillar to post. And the weather forecast hysteria did not help much.

There was a day in these forums when there was a mutual respect for differing opinions. I forgot those days were long past.

#12 to play versus Bears - confirmed by Coach McCarthy a few minutes ago. I expect the line to crawl up a bit to about Packers -4. I also expect a lot of Packers holding penalties and possible flags on Bears sort-of late hits.  

Confirmed by Coach McCarthy a few minutes ago.

Rogers will play, according to breaking news in the Badger state from Fox Sports WI.

With Rodger, Packers -4.5

If he wasn't playing, I would say Bears -5.5

#12 is good for a 10 point swing in this spot.

Clepto - I am looking for a Motown against Hollywood World Series this year but the Cards have beaten me repeatedly for years in big spots. As for Boston, I just like Detroit's pitching better. Same with the Dodgers. Kemp may be key to tip the batting balance in favor of St.L.

And, my old NHL comrade from the old, old days, wanted to let you know I snuck one in on the St. Louis Blues when they hosted the Blackhawks the other night. It was one of those you play and don't watch - just peek at the final later and smile. It was risky but it worked.

This is for all the newbies and negative chime-in artists that just have to get on the bully-pulpit and jump on a thread like Don Juan had up on the Super Bowl this year.

I have been on this site before Don Juan started posting (yes, I go back to the ole' Wagerline days). There was a time on here where you could post and have some decent interchange of ideas/angles/systems regarding handicapping. Heck, we're talking about gamblin' - so the only rule is there are no rules that work more than 55-60% of the time over the long haul - and only if you are a little bit good and being very lucky does not hurt either, right?

So, I can provide the forum with some facts:

First, Don Juan is very good at picking Super Bowl winners. I know his record is accurate. I can tell you he no longer includes the 2001 game he and I used to differ on, the famous Push between the Rams and Titans. It was -7 for weeks and I took issue with those who declared -6.5 Rams a winner. Of course, I had Titans that year - they had covered practically every game of the season and playoffs (if you don't believe me, look it up) - and I posted them a ton that week. It was a Push for me, that I know. In the past 12 years, I can only think of one game he lost.

Second, Don Juan is a stand-up guy and made a point of congratulating Raven winners on a separte thead. Not many people take the time or have the moral fiber to do that - so take come notes on that, will 'ya. Now I would have posted it on the original thread, but that is just me.

Third, how can there be a scam when all he did was make a case for the 9ers based on his style of handicapping.  He never said like some perps on the board who are saying bet the car, bet the house, bet the wifey, bet the first born, etc. Kapernick made a big splash this year and wrecked the season of a lot of good teams, like the Packers and the Falcons. The game did not go his way or Don Juan's way - so get over it.

DJ, everybody take it easy and GL to everybody.

v.

Same thing happened yesterday here in the Upper Midwest. Was 40* (our record for yesterday was 44) and not windy in the morning. Even toyed with grabbing a few golf clubs. By late afternoon, the winds were a steady 22-25 and gusting to 40mph. Just sayin', if someone told me it would be wind wagon weather at 5pm, I would have sid, say what?  There is a strong cold front moving across this great country and from the indications from weather experts, it may reach Mass today.

Why all the hate about info anyway?