smd173

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created a topic NFL Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 6-8 (43%) SU, 3-11 (21%) ATS YTD (excludes Weeks 1 and 2): 17-13 (57%) SU, 13-17 (43%) ATS Here are this weeks games: DENVER 11 BALTIMORE 23 JACKSONVILLE 20 BUFFALO 22 KANSAS CITY 17 INDIANAPOLIS 29 ST LOUIS 14 DETROIT 26 ATLANTA 19 CLEVELAND 17 TAMPA BAY 13 CINCINNATI 27 CHICAGO 16 CAROLINA 12 GREEN BAY 18 WASHINGTON 19 NY GIANTS 21 HOUSTON 33 NEW ORLEANS 21 ARIZONA 23 SAN DIEGO 32 OAKLAND 20 TENNESSEE 16 DALLAS 16* PHILADELPHIA 22 SAN FRANCISCO 22* MINNESOTA 8 NY JETS 17 *-Slight decimal point advantage for these teams. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 09, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NCAA Week 6 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 38-11 SU, 27-22 ATS This Week (Tue & Wed games): 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7: NEBRASKA 24 KANSAS ST 19 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8: CONNECTICUT 18 RUTGERS 17 OKLAHOMA ST 76 LA LAFAYETTE 24 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9: MINNESOTA 20 WISCONSIN 35 SYRACUSE 17 S FLORIDA 21 ILLINOIS 13 PENN ST 18 INDIANA 15 OHIO ST 54 MICHIGAN ST 24 MICHIGAN 39 MEMPHIS 13 LOUISVILLE 27 MIAMI OHIO 15 CINCINNATI 41 BOSTON COLLEGE 15 NC STATE 35 CLEMSON 22 N CAROLINA 34 VIRGINIA 23* GEORGIA TECH 23 TEMPLE 28 N ILLINOIS 27 NAVY 22 WAKE FOREST 21 UNLV 14 W VIRGINIA 30 W MICHIGAN 22 BALL ST 30 TENNESSEE 19 GEORGIA 28 E MICHIGAN 16 VANDERBILT 36 UTAH 22 IOWA ST 23 COLORADO 14 MISSOURI 33 C MICHIGAN 15 VIRGINIA TECH 36 BOWLING GREEN 24 OHIO U 27 E CAROLINA 34 SOUTHERN MISS 36 COLORADO ST 9 AIR FORCE 31 AKRON 15 KENT ST 32 ALABAMA 26 S CAROLINA 13 LSU 15 FLORIDA 19 WYOMING 8 TCU 35 ARIZONA ST 32 WASHINGTON 31 UCLA 16 CALIFORNIA 33 PITTSBURGH 20 NOTRE DAME 27 ARMY 22 TULANE 24 BAYLOR 32 TEXAS TECH 20 TEXAS A&M 20 ARKANSAS 29 FLORIDA ST 16 MIAMI 24 UTAH ST 27 LOUISIANA TECH 23 SAN JOSE ST 10 NEVADA 41 SAN DIEGO ST 22 BYU 16 OREGON 60 WASHINGTON ST 16 OREGON ST 14 ARIZONA 31 AUBURN 45 KENTUCKY 28 PURDUE 16 NORTHWESTERN 28 MISSISSIPPI ST 29 HOUSTON 25 NEW MEXICO 21 NEW MEXICO ST 22 USC 23 STANFORD 42 TOLEDO 11 BOISE ST 38 TULSA 31 SMU 38 RICE 29 UTEP 26 HAWAII 34 FRESNO ST 41 ARKANSAS ST 28 NORTH TEXAS 22 W KENTUCKY 22 FLA INTERNATIONAL 35 FLA ATLANTIC 21 LA MONROE 16 View Post \| View Thread	smd173	1	October 07, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Week 4 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win: have seen you post before but havent checked out your thread till today. what does yppt stand for? also,where is your first post so i can see how your method works. gracious. Just do a search for YPPT in the top menu and you can see the threads from last year. The YPPT method is based on a formula that combines yards per point, home field advantage, and strength of schedule to give a predicted score of the games. I didn't come up with the method, but I have a spreadsheet that calculates the scores. Since the people who did come up with it don't post here any more (or very little), I decided to put up the scores and results each week for those who were interested in it. As Butta has pointed out over in the college thread for this, YPPT is one of many tools you want to use for handicapping a game. And as the results have shown, it's far from perfect and seems better suited for picking SU winners than ATS winners. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 04, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NFL Week 4 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS Here are this weeks games: DENVER 13 TENNESSEE 25 BALTIMORE 7 PITTSBURGH 20 CINCINNATI 17 CLEVELAND 16 DETROIT 14 GREEN BAY 31 CAROLINA 10 NEW ORLEANS 28 SAN FRANCISCO 9 ATLANTA 50 SEATTLE 19 ST LOUIS 17 NY JETS 26 BUFFALO 12 INDIANAPOLIS 33 JACKSONVILLE 15 HOUSTON 34 OAKLAND 24 ARIZONA 13 SAN DIEGO 36 WASHINGTON 16 PHILADELPHIA 33 CHICAGO 25 NY GIANTS 19 NEW ENGLAND 23 MIAMI 24 View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 02, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NCAA Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Please note the following: * This is not my method, it was posted on these boards by Roughshod and others last season * Stats are gathered from statfox.com and put into the spreadsheet * Stats used are for the entire season to date, including games against Division I-AA (FCS) and/or Division II teams * Home Field Advantage is +1.5 points for the Home Team and -1.5 points for the Visiting Team * Strength of Schedule is taken from the Sagarin Ratings on usatoday.com Here is how the YPPT Method did for the final few weeks of the 2009 season: Week 11: 41-10 SU, 29-21-1 ATS Week 12: 40-12 SU, 29-23 ATS Week 13: 37-12 SU, 17-30-2 ATS Week 14: 12-6 SU, 5-12-1 ATS Bowls: 20-13 SU, 14-18-1 ATS =========================== Regular Season Totals: 130-40 SU (76%), 80-86-4 (48%) Bowl Game Totals: 20-13 SU (61%), 14-18-1 (44%) Overall Totals: 150-53 SU (74%), 94-104-5 (48%) View Post \| View Thread	smd173	5	September 30, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NCAA Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Here are the games for this week: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 30: TEXAS A&M 32 OKLAHOMA ST 45 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 1: BYU 19 UTAH ST 24 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2: TEXAS 19 OKLAHOMA 35 VANDERBILT 20 CONNECTICUT 21 OHIO U 30 E MICHIGAN 29 BALL ST 10 C MICHIGAN 35 WISCONSIN 25 MICHIGAN ST 21 MICHIGAN 47 INDIANA 20 NORTHWESTERN 33 MINNESOTA 18 VIRGINIA TECH 25 NC STATE 24 E CAROLINA 31 N CAROLINA 53 DUKE 26 MARYLAND 53 TULANE 10 RUTGERS 23 TEMPLE 20 ARMY 14 GEORGIA TECH 41 WAKE FOREST 41* TEXAS TECH 19 IOWA ST 24 KENTUCKY 36 OLE MISS 41 TULSA 34 MEMPHIS 28 KANSAS 17 BAYLOR 25 KENT ST 18 MIAMI OHIO 23 IDAHO 38 W MICHIGAN 24 TCU 47 COLORADO ST 14 NAVY 19 AIR FORCE 26 BUFFALO 21 BOWLING GREEN 35 NOTRE DAME 23 BOSTON COLLEGE 18 TENNESSEE 11 LSU 32 WASHINGTON ST 13 UCLA 40 OHIO ST 27 ILLINOIS 18 GEORGIA 23 COLORADO 21 N ILLINOIS 26 AKRON 21 UTEP 26 NEW MEXICO 19 ARIZONA ST 27 OREGON ST 37 WYOMING 16 TOLEDO 25 SMU 32 RICE 21 FLORIDA ST 16 VIRGINIA 18 FLORIDA 10 ALABAMA 22 MARSHALL 19 SOUTHERN MISS 28 PENN ST 14 IOWA 21 WASHINGTON 24 USC 33 MIAMI 30 CLEMSON 16 BOISE ST 63 NEW MEXICO ST 14 NEVADA 38 UNLV 21 STANFORD 16 OREGON 34 LOUISIANA TECH 23 HAWAII 40 FLA INTERNATIONAL 22 PITTSBURGH 28 LOUISVILLE 29 ARKANSAS ST 31 LA LAFAYETTE 15 NORTH TEXAS 20 LA MONROE 10 AUBURN 49 FLA ATLANTIC 20 S FLORIDA 26 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5: TROY 36 MIDDLE TENN ST 28 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6: UAB 14 UCF 28 *-Had a slight higher decimal before rounding. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	5	September 30, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Week 3 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by butta01: Is HFA and SOS added to those numbers? Yes, HFA is 1.5 and SOS comes from Sagarin's Ratings on usatoday.com View Post \| View Thread	smd173	4	September 25, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NFL Week 3 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies I really got interested in the YPPT Method posted by Roughshod and others on this forum last year. At one point, someone put the YPPT Method into an Excel spreadsheet and posted a copy on the board. So please note that this is not my formula. I know alot of people are interested in the YPPT Method, so I'm posting the weekly matchups to assist you with your capping. As a point of reference, here is how the system fared for the final half of the 2009 Season. 2009 YPPT NFL Week 10: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS Week 11: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS Week 12: 14-2 SU, 9-6-1 ATS Week 13: 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS Week 14: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS Week 15: 10-6 SU, 4-11-1 ATS Week 16: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS Week 17: 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS WC: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS DIV: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS CONF: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS SB44: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS ============================================================== Regular Season Totals: 79-47 SU (63%), 55-68-3 ATS (45%) Playoff Totals: 5-6 SU (45%), 4-7 ATS (36%) Overall Totals: 84-53 SU (61%), 59-75-3 ATS (44%) As you can see, the YPPT method was not very good ATS last year and I'm pretty sure ESPN or USAToday's pick'em gurus probably did better than 61% in SU picks too. But maybe it'll do better this year. Here are the Week 3 NFL Games: TENNESSEE 28 NY GIANTS 26 BUFFALO 17 NEW ENGLAND 34 CLEVELAND 8 BALTIMORE 10 PITTSBURGH 16 TAMPA BAY 7 CINCINNATI 25 CAROLINA 16 ATLANTA 33 NEW ORLEANS 12 SAN FRANCISCO 11 KANSAS CITY 27 DETROIT 12 MINNESOTA 19 DALLAS 13 HOUSTON 50 WASHINGTON 22 ST LOUIS 11 PHILADELPHIA 30* JACKSONVILLE 30 INDIANAPOLIS 31 DENVER 19 SAN DIEGO 27 SEATTLE 16 OAKLAND 14* ARIZONA 14 NY JETS 11 MIAMI 6 GREEN BAY 24 CHICAGO 17 *-PHILADELPHIA and OAKLAND had slightly higher points by decimal, but when rounding the scores, it ended in a tie for each of those games. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	4	September 25, 2010 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
created a topic NFL Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 6-8 (43%) SU, 3-11 (21%) ATS YTD (excludes Weeks 1 and 2): 17-13 (57%) SU, 13-17 (43%) ATS Here are this weeks games: DENVER 11 BALTIMORE 23 JACKSONVILLE 20 BUFFALO 22 KANSAS CITY 17 INDIANAPOLIS 29 ST LOUIS 14 DETROIT 26 ATLANTA 19 CLEVELAND 17 TAMPA BAY 13 CINCINNATI 27 CHICAGO 16 CAROLINA 12 GREEN BAY 18 WASHINGTON 19 NY GIANTS 21 HOUSTON 33 NEW ORLEANS 21 ARIZONA 23 SAN DIEGO 32 OAKLAND 20 TENNESSEE 16 DALLAS 16* PHILADELPHIA 22 SAN FRANCISCO 22* MINNESOTA 8 NY JETS 17 *-Slight decimal point advantage for these teams. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 09, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NCAA Week 6 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 38-11 SU, 27-22 ATS This Week (Tue & Wed games): 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7: NEBRASKA 24 KANSAS ST 19 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8: CONNECTICUT 18 RUTGERS 17 OKLAHOMA ST 76 LA LAFAYETTE 24 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9: MINNESOTA 20 WISCONSIN 35 SYRACUSE 17 S FLORIDA 21 ILLINOIS 13 PENN ST 18 INDIANA 15 OHIO ST 54 MICHIGAN ST 24 MICHIGAN 39 MEMPHIS 13 LOUISVILLE 27 MIAMI OHIO 15 CINCINNATI 41 BOSTON COLLEGE 15 NC STATE 35 CLEMSON 22 N CAROLINA 34 VIRGINIA 23* GEORGIA TECH 23 TEMPLE 28 N ILLINOIS 27 NAVY 22 WAKE FOREST 21 UNLV 14 W VIRGINIA 30 W MICHIGAN 22 BALL ST 30 TENNESSEE 19 GEORGIA 28 E MICHIGAN 16 VANDERBILT 36 UTAH 22 IOWA ST 23 COLORADO 14 MISSOURI 33 C MICHIGAN 15 VIRGINIA TECH 36 BOWLING GREEN 24 OHIO U 27 E CAROLINA 34 SOUTHERN MISS 36 COLORADO ST 9 AIR FORCE 31 AKRON 15 KENT ST 32 ALABAMA 26 S CAROLINA 13 LSU 15 FLORIDA 19 WYOMING 8 TCU 35 ARIZONA ST 32 WASHINGTON 31 UCLA 16 CALIFORNIA 33 PITTSBURGH 20 NOTRE DAME 27 ARMY 22 TULANE 24 BAYLOR 32 TEXAS TECH 20 TEXAS A&M 20 ARKANSAS 29 FLORIDA ST 16 MIAMI 24 UTAH ST 27 LOUISIANA TECH 23 SAN JOSE ST 10 NEVADA 41 SAN DIEGO ST 22 BYU 16 OREGON 60 WASHINGTON ST 16 OREGON ST 14 ARIZONA 31 AUBURN 45 KENTUCKY 28 PURDUE 16 NORTHWESTERN 28 MISSISSIPPI ST 29 HOUSTON 25 NEW MEXICO 21 NEW MEXICO ST 22 USC 23 STANFORD 42 TOLEDO 11 BOISE ST 38 TULSA 31 SMU 38 RICE 29 UTEP 26 HAWAII 34 FRESNO ST 41 ARKANSAS ST 28 NORTH TEXAS 22 W KENTUCKY 22 FLA INTERNATIONAL 35 FLA ATLANTIC 21 LA MONROE 16 View Post \| View Thread	smd173	1	October 07, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Week 4 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win: have seen you post before but havent checked out your thread till today. what does yppt stand for? also,where is your first post so i can see how your method works. gracious. Just do a search for YPPT in the top menu and you can see the threads from last year. The YPPT method is based on a formula that combines yards per point, home field advantage, and strength of schedule to give a predicted score of the games. I didn't come up with the method, but I have a spreadsheet that calculates the scores. Since the people who did come up with it don't post here any more (or very little), I decided to put up the scores and results each week for those who were interested in it. As Butta has pointed out over in the college thread for this, YPPT is one of many tools you want to use for handicapping a game. And as the results have shown, it's far from perfect and seems better suited for picking SU winners than ATS winners. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 04, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NFL Week 4 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Last Week: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS Here are this weeks games: DENVER 13 TENNESSEE 25 BALTIMORE 7 PITTSBURGH 20 CINCINNATI 17 CLEVELAND 16 DETROIT 14 GREEN BAY 31 CAROLINA 10 NEW ORLEANS 28 SAN FRANCISCO 9 ATLANTA 50 SEATTLE 19 ST LOUIS 17 NY JETS 26 BUFFALO 12 INDIANAPOLIS 33 JACKSONVILLE 15 HOUSTON 34 OAKLAND 24 ARIZONA 13 SAN DIEGO 36 WASHINGTON 16 PHILADELPHIA 33 CHICAGO 25 NY GIANTS 19 NEW ENGLAND 23 MIAMI 24 View Post \| View Thread	smd173	7	October 02, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NCAA Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Please note the following: * This is not my method, it was posted on these boards by Roughshod and others last season * Stats are gathered from statfox.com and put into the spreadsheet * Stats used are for the entire season to date, including games against Division I-AA (FCS) and/or Division II teams * Home Field Advantage is +1.5 points for the Home Team and -1.5 points for the Visiting Team * Strength of Schedule is taken from the Sagarin Ratings on usatoday.com Here is how the YPPT Method did for the final few weeks of the 2009 season: Week 11: 41-10 SU, 29-21-1 ATS Week 12: 40-12 SU, 29-23 ATS Week 13: 37-12 SU, 17-30-2 ATS Week 14: 12-6 SU, 5-12-1 ATS Bowls: 20-13 SU, 14-18-1 ATS =========================== Regular Season Totals: 130-40 SU (76%), 80-86-4 (48%) Bowl Game Totals: 20-13 SU (61%), 14-18-1 (44%) Overall Totals: 150-53 SU (74%), 94-104-5 (48%) View Post \| View Thread	smd173	5	September 30, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NCAA Week 5 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Here are the games for this week: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 30: TEXAS A&M 32 OKLAHOMA ST 45 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 1: BYU 19 UTAH ST 24 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2: TEXAS 19 OKLAHOMA 35 VANDERBILT 20 CONNECTICUT 21 OHIO U 30 E MICHIGAN 29 BALL ST 10 C MICHIGAN 35 WISCONSIN 25 MICHIGAN ST 21 MICHIGAN 47 INDIANA 20 NORTHWESTERN 33 MINNESOTA 18 VIRGINIA TECH 25 NC STATE 24 E CAROLINA 31 N CAROLINA 53 DUKE 26 MARYLAND 53 TULANE 10 RUTGERS 23 TEMPLE 20 ARMY 14 GEORGIA TECH 41 WAKE FOREST 41* TEXAS TECH 19 IOWA ST 24 KENTUCKY 36 OLE MISS 41 TULSA 34 MEMPHIS 28 KANSAS 17 BAYLOR 25 KENT ST 18 MIAMI OHIO 23 IDAHO 38 W MICHIGAN 24 TCU 47 COLORADO ST 14 NAVY 19 AIR FORCE 26 BUFFALO 21 BOWLING GREEN 35 NOTRE DAME 23 BOSTON COLLEGE 18 TENNESSEE 11 LSU 32 WASHINGTON ST 13 UCLA 40 OHIO ST 27 ILLINOIS 18 GEORGIA 23 COLORADO 21 N ILLINOIS 26 AKRON 21 UTEP 26 NEW MEXICO 19 ARIZONA ST 27 OREGON ST 37 WYOMING 16 TOLEDO 25 SMU 32 RICE 21 FLORIDA ST 16 VIRGINIA 18 FLORIDA 10 ALABAMA 22 MARSHALL 19 SOUTHERN MISS 28 PENN ST 14 IOWA 21 WASHINGTON 24 USC 33 MIAMI 30 CLEMSON 16 BOISE ST 63 NEW MEXICO ST 14 NEVADA 38 UNLV 21 STANFORD 16 OREGON 34 LOUISIANA TECH 23 HAWAII 40 FLA INTERNATIONAL 22 PITTSBURGH 28 LOUISVILLE 29 ARKANSAS ST 31 LA LAFAYETTE 15 NORTH TEXAS 20 LA MONROE 10 AUBURN 49 FLA ATLANTIC 20 S FLORIDA 26 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5: TROY 36 MIDDLE TENN ST 28 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6: UAB 14 UCF 28 *-Had a slight higher decimal before rounding. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	5	September 30, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Week 3 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by butta01: Is HFA and SOS added to those numbers? Yes, HFA is 1.5 and SOS comes from Sagarin's Ratings on usatoday.com View Post \| View Thread	smd173	4	September 25, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NFL Week 3 - YPPT Method in Systems & Strategies I really got interested in the YPPT Method posted by Roughshod and others on this forum last year. At one point, someone put the YPPT Method into an Excel spreadsheet and posted a copy on the board. So please note that this is not my formula. I know alot of people are interested in the YPPT Method, so I'm posting the weekly matchups to assist you with your capping. As a point of reference, here is how the system fared for the final half of the 2009 Season. 2009 YPPT NFL Week 10: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS Week 11: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS Week 12: 14-2 SU, 9-6-1 ATS Week 13: 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS Week 14: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS Week 15: 10-6 SU, 4-11-1 ATS Week 16: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS Week 17: 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS WC: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS DIV: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS CONF: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS SB44: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS ============================================================== Regular Season Totals: 79-47 SU (63%), 55-68-3 ATS (45%) Playoff Totals: 5-6 SU (45%), 4-7 ATS (36%) Overall Totals: 84-53 SU (61%), 59-75-3 ATS (44%) As you can see, the YPPT method was not very good ATS last year and I'm pretty sure ESPN or USAToday's pick'em gurus probably did better than 61% in SU picks too. But maybe it'll do better this year. Here are the Week 3 NFL Games: TENNESSEE 28 NY GIANTS 26 BUFFALO 17 NEW ENGLAND 34 CLEVELAND 8 BALTIMORE 10 PITTSBURGH 16 TAMPA BAY 7 CINCINNATI 25 CAROLINA 16 ATLANTA 33 NEW ORLEANS 12 SAN FRANCISCO 11 KANSAS CITY 27 DETROIT 12 MINNESOTA 19 DALLAS 13 HOUSTON 50 WASHINGTON 22 ST LOUIS 11 PHILADELPHIA 30* JACKSONVILLE 30 INDIANAPOLIS 31 DENVER 19 SAN DIEGO 27 SEATTLE 16 OAKLAND 14* ARIZONA 14 NY JETS 11 MIAMI 6 GREEN BAY 24 CHICAGO 17 *-PHILADELPHIA and OAKLAND had slightly higher points by decimal, but when rounding the scores, it ended in a tie for each of those games. View Post \| View Thread	smd173	4	September 25, 2010 View Post \| View Thread

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