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Theres nothing like forcing a coinflip pick on the noon baseball game so you own all the tiebreakers and having the whole field breathing down your neck. After six weeks of effort that was definately more of a rush then having my own money on a game.
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Stewy63501 | 2 |
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I think you woke up before Borowski came in the game.
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wshustler | 11 |
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Has anyone ever seen a roll like this where a team has rarely been favored. Whats the most juice they have laid?
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Stewy63501 | 6 |
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The Chiefs have a perception as some terrible team after upgrading alot of positions on playoff team last season. There defense is legit as it ranks near the top of the league in most categories. Their offense has 3 special skill players in Bowe, LJ, and Tony G. The offensive line is starting to gel and Huard has gotten a little better every week. This team might have some value going forward as I see them going on a roll to win the West and oddsmakers wont make the adjustmet till the public catches on.
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Joe Public | 36 |
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You really think South Carolina has value in this spot? Coming off LSU game with a short week Kentucky on deck. They lost best linebacker off of a defense giving up 4.9 yards per carry. Also they are breaking in a new QB. Also ranked teams coming off of first loss are at an emotional disadvantage as they are 2-9 ats in this spot. I think Miss State @ 14 has alot of value as they could easily touch 200 yards rushing in this game and will likely give South Carolina their best shot.
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lindetrain | 82 |
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Ranked teams that lose their first game are 2-8 ats the next week. My theory is that these teams come out flat after losing their dream season. Does anyone know how I can go back to last season and track this to get a better sample size before I think about using this angle.
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Stewy63501 | 1 |
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Penn State, South Carolina, Bama, Indiana, Airforce, and Tex AM are all coming off of first loss. It will be interesting to see how these teams fair against the spread this week.
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Stewy63501 | 3 |
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I remember reading something a couple of year ago that you should bet against teams coming off of first loss. A few examples last week would have been Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Lousiville. Does anyone use this strategy or have any numbers too support it?
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Stewy63501 | 3 |
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Den -3
Denver barely beating two bad teams and Jacksonvilles perception as a good team brings tremendous value to this line. Looking closer into the Broncos two games you will notice they have dominated total yards and have pretty much shot themselves in the foot almost costing them both games. I think this leads to a focused effort by a home team who will have a huge total yard advantage in this matchup and to top it off they are only laying 3 points. The Broncos have been a terrible bet at home laying big numbers to bad teams but I really like this spot laying a small number.
Zona + 9
Whisenhunt has this team running the ball and playing defense. The Cards have held the advantage on the ground in both games in which they played solid defenses and went up against two great running backs. Meanwhile the Raven offense has struggled to get on track against two bad defenses. I think 9 points is tremendous value in a game that sets up to be even in the total yard category.
Cleveland @ Oakland over 39.5
Another low number hung on a Raider total to start the season. Last season the Raiders were an under machine but this season the offense appears to have joined the party while the defense has taken a step backwards. Both defenses have given up a ton of yards in the first two weeks while both offenses have shown a pulse. Here you have two offenses averaging 5 + yards per rush and two defenses allowing 5 + yards a rush. The lowest total of any of the 4 games played involving these two teams is 41.
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Stewy63501 | 1 |
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Do you think Buffalo's D is good. They gave up a ton of yards to the Broncos and are missing some key player to injury. Pitt has a well balanced offense and I doubt they will be content just to grind it out.
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Stewy63501 | 1 |
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