Super_Chicken

I've heard it so much that it's echoing in my ears.  But what big games are they talking about?  Has Kiffin ever had a big game where he had equal or better payers and he didn't win?  Maybe so, but I don't remember.  Someone please help me here.  

Ole Miss is 6-3 ATS this year and Georgia is just 2-6, but I think that is why the line is so low.  Basically if Georgia wins they will probably cover.  It will be later in the week before we know the health status of several key players. 

Ole Miss has played 4 cupcakes and Georgia has just played 1, so a big difference in strength of schedule.  But I am seeing 2.5 everywhere.  If you got 3.5 that's a lot better.  I like OM at +3.5  

It looks like the line opened at 6.5 and it has moved down to 2.5 despite the majority of wagers being placed on Georgia.  It doesn't make much sense to me but Dart is playing better than Beck right now and this is not last year's Georgia squad.  But it's still Georgia. 

I think the line is a little inflated because the public expects Vandy to start being Vandy and Auburn to start being Auburn.  Based solely on what they have done this year the line would be close to a PICK. 

I like all of these picks.  Good luck!

@Last2thirst

I have bet on Penn St 3 times this year and they have failed to cover all 3 times, so that may have influenced my thinking.  But I thought OSU was lethargic against Nebr just because they were looking ahead to Penn St.  Maybe the OL injuries that OSU has are worse than I realize.  But they definitely have Penn St's number and they definitely have better skill players and they certainly need this game more.  

I haven't been overly impressed with Penn St this year.  They are a good team but not a great team.  They are 8-0 but only once have they scored more than 34 points (56-0 over Kent St).  The Buckeyes are the better team with superior athletes.  They are more explosive.  I know they struggled with Nebraska last week but they were looking ahead to Penn St.  Also, this game is more critical for Ohio St because they already have a loss (32-31 at Oregon).  They cannot afford a 2nd loss, whereas 1 loss wouldn't kill Penn St.  Ohio St has owned Penn St recently having won the past 7 match-ups.  I look for OSU to continue the streak with a solid victory of more than 7 points.  Give me OSU -4. 

Super Chicken

Tough game for me.  Liberty has not played up to their potential yet this year.  Kenesaw is terrible.  If Liberty plays anywhere near their potential they could beat em by 40.  

I've never really understood this.  How often are the public and sharps on the same side?  How often are the sharps wrong?  Does sharp money always move the line?  

Thanks in advance.

@kidd22

 The "Big 10 across country travel thing" is not 2-15, but it is pretty significant.  I think it's at about 75% ATS.  Does anyone have that stat? 

Up to 20.5 now!!!!! 

I am shocked that this line is so low.  I am seeing Indiana -6.5 and I was expecting closer to -14.  Can someone explain what's going on here?  Washington is 4-3 and has not won a road game yet this year.  Indiana is 7-0 and just killing people.  They are allowing just 13.7 PPG while scoring 48.7 PPG (1st in FBS).  They just boat raced Nebraska 56-7 last week.  What gives?  Does Vegas know something?  

Super Chicken

@AJ86

 That's a good argument but I'm not so sure.  Bama did beat Georgia and I don't think Boise could beat them once out of 10 tries.  I think Alabama would probably beat Boise 7 or 8 out of 10 times.  

Are your picks on the left side, or the ones in CAPS?  I think the Ole Miss line is too high. 

Stay hot, Carter.  I like the first pick.  Is Ole Miss really a 18.5 fave over Okla???  That seems a bit much.  

I love the picks.  Good luck this week.  

At first glance we see two SEC teams, both wearing Maroon and White, both with first year head coaches, and the home team played Georgia close last week (lost 41-31) and is catching 14.5 points.  A no-brainer, right?  As Lee Corso would say, "NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!"  These teams are very different.  Texas A&M has found their stride after a season opening loss to Notre Dame.  The Aggies have a punishing ground game, averaging 232 YPG (9th) and in their most recent game against Missouri (a 41-10 victory) they dominated the line of scrimmage and showed a balanced attack with 236 rushing yards and 276 passing.  Plus, A&M had a BYE week last week to prepare for State.  Meanwhile, State just doesn't have very good athletes on the defensive side of the ball.  They are allowing 201 rushing YPG (120th) and 263 passing YPG (115th).  They will not be able to slow down the Aggie running game, and the Aggies will also have success through the air whenever they choose to throw.  Georgia was looking ahead to Texas last week so that 41-31 score is misleading.  And Georgia still out-gained State 605-385.  I expect A&M to pull away and win this game something like 42-14.  I'll lay the 14.5 points.  

Super Chicken

@DegenNaysh

 I agree, 58.5 seems too high.  

@spottie2935

 To be honest I can't trust Ball State either.  They just don't have the athletes and it doesn't feel right.  I think this is no play for me.