Th3Goat

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Friday MLB in MLB Betting GL Vandal!! View Post \| View Thread	VegasVandal	38	August 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 season long MLB thread in MLB Betting What you think about King Felix Tomorrow vs price ???? View Post \| View Thread	collegegambler	2538	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 season long MLB thread in MLB Betting Solid Play sir! View Post \| View Thread	collegegambler	2538	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: I would assume your talking about the HP ump, I think you need to educate youself in regards to handicapping a baseball game, if your criteria includes the use of Umpires, take note: they play little if any role in the outcome of a MLB game. and no role whatsoever in handicapping one. maybe you should consider playing the many systems that are available on todays open market. they are tailor made for people like yourself, (they don't require using your mind on a daily basis, they're simplistic, and to an extent, they produce), although MM knowledge is a mandatory factor when using any systematic formula that initiates chasing a win.... Well sports Im glad you strongly believe in your opinions!! I feel that the "HP Ump" Is a huge factor...Are you leading me to believe all upms have same strike zones? Or they all call games exactly the same? Im not your google....Look up umpire trends...Is it just pure random luck one umpires last 8 went 8 straight overs and another went 9 straight unders???? Sports_Network your name says it all NOOB!! GG View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp: Th3Goat, I have various handicapping methods I use for various sports. It is far too large to break down in one post. Somethings I do use for MLB, that are not usually focused on are Defensive Efficiency, and the Bullpen depth of teams. Not the closers, or setup guys, but the guys that come in when a bullpen is spent. Some team's bullpen may seem strong, but if their setup, and closer are gone, and a starter coming in has very few quality starts, that team is in big trouble and I always look for spots like these. Solid I know what you mean when the starting pitchers are pulled in the 7th tie game and now your whole idea of a advantage falls to a huge disadvantage and Bang you catch a L! Like your thinking Sharp Stay sharp!! View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting Heavy fav?? hes -110 right Now i hope the runline moves to Sea -1.5 for like +160-170 is what im hoping for!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting LMAO King felix a dog ahahahhahahahahaha...Seattle smashing ball! Det is in the slump of slumps since last sunday 19ining game....Theyve lost 1st they are down...Morally and When The king goes 7+ on them it will just add insult to injury! Price could possibly through a solid game but doesnt scare me! Hes good for 2-3 runs a game.... thats all we will need to catch this win!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting How do you just not unload on seattle!!!! OMG!!This is my game of the year....I PRAY WHEN I WAKE UP SEA is the fav RUNLINE express!! ITs going DOWN Thank you Baseball gods!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Brewers will LOSE Friday, 8/15 in MLB Betting I think thats too much of a write up !!! to lay 160~~ View Post \| View Thread	cropduster	7	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LOUIS IV's FRIDAY NIGHT HARD BALL GAMBLIN' CARD in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV: I'm done looking at totals, not worth my time. Too unpredictable with wild pitches, errors, hbp, stupid sh it every time. What??? Totals are freemoney! Just haft to pick your spots!!! View Post \| View Thread	Louis_IV	15	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to CHICAGO/TORONTO UNDER???? THOUGHTS???? in MLB Betting You guys reading the post!!! Say something lol!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic CHICAGO/TORONTO UNDER???? THOUGHTS???? in MLB Betting Seems like way to high of a line for these 2 teams right now! They are both struggling to score Edwin Encarnacion Comes back today but we all know take a couple games get back in the swing of things! I think this game could go under by 3-4 runs.....Any thought or opinions welcomed !!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Seattle Mariners in MLB Betting Add in the fact porcello got his cracked sunday in the 19ining game with toronto I think his confidence is out the window...Wouldnt be surprised if got lit the Fup!!! Like seattle as well in this spot! Still narrowing down between UN Chi/Tor Seattle or KC not sure which one im going with yet View Post \| View Thread	RebelTell2	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting well thanks boys for the input!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by McGin83: I like KC in this spot. I don't believe in any locks. Duffy looking solid & Nolasci coming off rehab start says he should be alright to give it the ole' try on Friday night. I'm not warranting a huge play however. This Twins team had Fuld, Willingham, & a different look to it when Duffy faced these twins on June & July 30th. Duffy in those 2 starts gave up combined 2 ER's & 8 hits total & in both games he went 5 2/3rds innings, respectively. He walked 6 twins batters on July 30th but was able to work around that. With all that said, I'd take the royals here, & I don't care about the public, pple read to much into that I feel like. GL Thank you sir!!!~ Your opinion is valued!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Weeble's Friday Picks in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56: I like Greike & Dodgers also. Why???? View Post \| View Thread	weeble5672	19	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Does anyone have stats on how many days a year all the chalk or all the dogs hit? in MLB Betting MY guess on the season nothing looked up give or take 50/50 View Post \| View Thread	bobmaloogatimesfive	17	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp: Hello everyone. I signed up recently to this forum to share my knowledge of sports handicapping. Hopefully we can all work together and continue to increase our edge vs. the books. Please feel free to offer any constructive criticism. I hope you find my contribution to this forum helpful. My Winning Strategy consist of a few simple rules that I follow religiously. Even though they may not be completely optimal, they are tried and true, and at the end of the day, bring in profits. There may be a better method to bet on sports, but this is my winning strategy. 1. Manage your money properly. I personally flat bet 1% of my bankroll per play. I only bet singles. I will bet any price as long as it contains +EV. (positive expected value). After a 25% increase in my bankroll, I change my unit size. I never lower it. This method was introduced to me by Miller, and it's never failed me. 2. Track EVERY play you make and record your results. Record your wins and losses, your unit losses, your winning %, the price, etc... every piece of data. Once you track all your plays, you can see exactly where your strengths are. I love football, but I don't make profit at football. I hate basketball, but I make profit at basketball. So obviously, despite loving football, I bet a lot of basketball. You bet your edges, not your heart. 3. Don't get lazy. See why you lost, and why you won. Handicapping a game, using a starting pitcher emphasis lets say, but having the opponents bullpen give you the game after your starting pitcher throws meatballs gives you a false positive on a winning system. Make sure your wins are because you correctly handicapped the game. A loss is NOT a loss. Losing by 1 run or 9 makes a big different. Find out why so you can tweak and modify your handicapping skills to give you a more accurate assessment model. 4. Don't check the scores. Just review the data after the games if your a night hawk or the next day. Watch the accelerated game replays. You don't need the swings to affect your emotional health. You don't need to piss off your gf or wife during a movie because you are checking scores. It will seep into your personal life if you let it. Cap your games, and check the results later. Don't let it control your life. It is a job, not a life. 5. Reward yourself and be proud. Many people lose, so if you do manage to win and be successful be proud of yourself. Treat yourself to a nice vacation and take a break as you would with any other job. These are my basic rules. I stick to them and I make profit. You may do things different, and still be successful, but this works for me. Good luck everybody. This all relates to how you play has nothing to do with actually finding winners. Whats your methods towards breaking down games? I personally look at the umpire first bps 2nd bats 3rd and starting pitchers last and i am very selective 1 sometimes none a day! If you dont mind sharing would like to how you break games down? View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Dangleman88: Public was all over st louis detroit brewers rays all over 70 percent all won LMAO KC GAME THOUGHTS OPINIONS??? Thats why i made this thread!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Feartheweb Thursday in MLB Betting Guys cant we all just get along??? View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	89	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Friday MLB in MLB Betting GL Vandal!! View Post \| View Thread	VegasVandal	38	August 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 season long MLB thread in MLB Betting What you think about King Felix Tomorrow vs price ???? View Post \| View Thread	collegegambler	2538	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 season long MLB thread in MLB Betting Solid Play sir! View Post \| View Thread	collegegambler	2538	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: I would assume your talking about the HP ump, I think you need to educate youself in regards to handicapping a baseball game, if your criteria includes the use of Umpires, take note: they play little if any role in the outcome of a MLB game. and no role whatsoever in handicapping one. maybe you should consider playing the many systems that are available on todays open market. they are tailor made for people like yourself, (they don't require using your mind on a daily basis, they're simplistic, and to an extent, they produce), although MM knowledge is a mandatory factor when using any systematic formula that initiates chasing a win.... Well sports Im glad you strongly believe in your opinions!! I feel that the "HP Ump" Is a huge factor...Are you leading me to believe all upms have same strike zones? Or they all call games exactly the same? Im not your google....Look up umpire trends...Is it just pure random luck one umpires last 8 went 8 straight overs and another went 9 straight unders???? Sports_Network your name says it all NOOB!! GG View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp: Th3Goat, I have various handicapping methods I use for various sports. It is far too large to break down in one post. Somethings I do use for MLB, that are not usually focused on are Defensive Efficiency, and the Bullpen depth of teams. Not the closers, or setup guys, but the guys that come in when a bullpen is spent. Some team's bullpen may seem strong, but if their setup, and closer are gone, and a starter coming in has very few quality starts, that team is in big trouble and I always look for spots like these. Solid I know what you mean when the starting pitchers are pulled in the 7th tie game and now your whole idea of a advantage falls to a huge disadvantage and Bang you catch a L! Like your thinking Sharp Stay sharp!! View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting Heavy fav?? hes -110 right Now i hope the runline moves to Sea -1.5 for like +160-170 is what im hoping for!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting LMAO King felix a dog ahahahhahahahahaha...Seattle smashing ball! Det is in the slump of slumps since last sunday 19ining game....Theyve lost 1st they are down...Morally and When The king goes 7+ on them it will just add insult to injury! Price could possibly through a solid game but doesnt scare me! Hes good for 2-3 runs a game.... thats all we will need to catch this win!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic WOW $KING FELIX$ A DOG??? DET SLUMPING WOWOW in MLB Betting How do you just not unload on seattle!!!! OMG!!This is my game of the year....I PRAY WHEN I WAKE UP SEA is the fav RUNLINE express!! ITs going DOWN Thank you Baseball gods!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	4	August 16, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Brewers will LOSE Friday, 8/15 in MLB Betting I think thats too much of a write up !!! to lay 160~~ View Post \| View Thread	cropduster	7	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to LOUIS IV's FRIDAY NIGHT HARD BALL GAMBLIN' CARD in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV: I'm done looking at totals, not worth my time. Too unpredictable with wild pitches, errors, hbp, stupid sh it every time. What??? Totals are freemoney! Just haft to pick your spots!!! View Post \| View Thread	Louis_IV	15	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to CHICAGO/TORONTO UNDER???? THOUGHTS???? in MLB Betting You guys reading the post!!! Say something lol!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic CHICAGO/TORONTO UNDER???? THOUGHTS???? in MLB Betting Seems like way to high of a line for these 2 teams right now! They are both struggling to score Edwin Encarnacion Comes back today but we all know take a couple games get back in the swing of things! I think this game could go under by 3-4 runs.....Any thought or opinions welcomed !!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Seattle Mariners in MLB Betting Add in the fact porcello got his cracked sunday in the 19ining game with toronto I think his confidence is out the window...Wouldnt be surprised if got lit the Fup!!! Like seattle as well in this spot! Still narrowing down between UN Chi/Tor Seattle or KC not sure which one im going with yet View Post \| View Thread	RebelTell2	2	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting well thanks boys for the input!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by McGin83: I like KC in this spot. I don't believe in any locks. Duffy looking solid & Nolasci coming off rehab start says he should be alright to give it the ole' try on Friday night. I'm not warranting a huge play however. This Twins team had Fuld, Willingham, & a different look to it when Duffy faced these twins on June & July 30th. Duffy in those 2 starts gave up combined 2 ER's & 8 hits total & in both games he went 5 2/3rds innings, respectively. He walked 6 twins batters on July 30th but was able to work around that. With all that said, I'd take the royals here, & I don't care about the public, pple read to much into that I feel like. GL Thank you sir!!!~ Your opinion is valued!!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Weeble's Friday Picks in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56: I like Greike & Dodgers also. Why???? View Post \| View Thread	weeble5672	19	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Does anyone have stats on how many days a year all the chalk or all the dogs hit? in MLB Betting MY guess on the season nothing looked up give or take 50/50 View Post \| View Thread	bobmaloogatimesfive	17	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to My Winning Strategy in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp: Hello everyone. I signed up recently to this forum to share my knowledge of sports handicapping. Hopefully we can all work together and continue to increase our edge vs. the books. Please feel free to offer any constructive criticism. I hope you find my contribution to this forum helpful. My Winning Strategy consist of a few simple rules that I follow religiously. Even though they may not be completely optimal, they are tried and true, and at the end of the day, bring in profits. There may be a better method to bet on sports, but this is my winning strategy. 1. Manage your money properly. I personally flat bet 1% of my bankroll per play. I only bet singles. I will bet any price as long as it contains +EV. (positive expected value). After a 25% increase in my bankroll, I change my unit size. I never lower it. This method was introduced to me by Miller, and it's never failed me. 2. Track EVERY play you make and record your results. Record your wins and losses, your unit losses, your winning %, the price, etc... every piece of data. Once you track all your plays, you can see exactly where your strengths are. I love football, but I don't make profit at football. I hate basketball, but I make profit at basketball. So obviously, despite loving football, I bet a lot of basketball. You bet your edges, not your heart. 3. Don't get lazy. See why you lost, and why you won. Handicapping a game, using a starting pitcher emphasis lets say, but having the opponents bullpen give you the game after your starting pitcher throws meatballs gives you a false positive on a winning system. Make sure your wins are because you correctly handicapped the game. A loss is NOT a loss. Losing by 1 run or 9 makes a big different. Find out why so you can tweak and modify your handicapping skills to give you a more accurate assessment model. 4. Don't check the scores. Just review the data after the games if your a night hawk or the next day. Watch the accelerated game replays. You don't need the swings to affect your emotional health. You don't need to piss off your gf or wife during a movie because you are checking scores. It will seep into your personal life if you let it. Cap your games, and check the results later. Don't let it control your life. It is a job, not a life. 5. Reward yourself and be proud. Many people lose, so if you do manage to win and be successful be proud of yourself. Treat yourself to a nice vacation and take a break as you would with any other job. These are my basic rules. I stick to them and I make profit. You may do things different, and still be successful, but this works for me. Good luck everybody. This all relates to how you play has nothing to do with actually finding winners. Whats your methods towards breaking down games? I personally look at the umpire first bps 2nd bats 3rd and starting pitchers last and i am very selective 1 sometimes none a day! If you dont mind sharing would like to how you break games down? View Post \| View Thread	GeneralSharp	12	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to IS KC TOMORROW ANOTHER GIFT FROM THE GODS?? in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Dangleman88: Public was all over st louis detroit brewers rays all over 70 percent all won LMAO KC GAME THOUGHTS OPINIONS??? Thats why i made this thread!! View Post \| View Thread	Th3Goat	22	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Feartheweb Thursday in MLB Betting Guys cant we all just get along??? View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	89	August 15, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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