Tha_Commish77

4Q UNDER 13.5 (+100)

In all of KC’s 20 games this season, not one went over 13. The combined average total in the 20 games was 7 points.

In 7 of 19 SF games the total went over 13.5. 

There’s a million measurable stats and data points but this trend (especially on the KC side) looks to be valuable and not discussed much.

The Beavs are using their 3rd string QB (although he was 7-1 as a starter last year), he barely played this season. They’re also w/o their stud RB Martinez, their top 2 WR’s and their TE. Also their kicker which could be key in a close game. ND is w/o Hartman but they have their Defense in tact which will be the difference today. 

This game was only close due to OU defense causing some havoc at times and the no holding calls on the OU O line. They called 6 holding penalties and it should’ve been 16. It seemed like that was the strategy going in. I’m at the game and even OU fans acknowledged it. Zona D line is legit so them not getting much pressure until the end was suspect all along. The best team won tonight. 

@RLeith35

 Thanks for All the great info you provide in multiple sports. 

Can you explain how you describe these NRFI plays?

As in, what do you mean by “WON” followed by a number? 

Thanks!

Overall W/L 5-3; +3.05 units

1st 5 RL: 1-0; +1.05 units

Full game ML: 1-1; +0.85 units

O/U: 2-0; +2.00 units

1st 5 O/U: 0-1; -1.00 units 

Player Props: 1-1; +0.15 units

Today:

Lance Lynn U17.5 outs recorded (-105)

Lance Lynn O2.5 ER (+120)

Lynn is a very serviceable, solid SP. However, this group of HOU players are hitting .338 & slugging .978 against him. Lynn didn’t face HOU last year but in his last 3 starts against them (all in HOU) he went 3.2, 4 & 5.2 innings and gave up 5, 6 & 9 ER in those starts. You have to go back to May 2019 when he last had a quality start against the ‘stros. He also hasn’t exactly been great in his first start of the season. Barring coming back from an injury, his last 3 season opening starts have gone 4.2, 5.2 & 4 innings and given up 12 ER’s. 

Houston lost their opener and will be primed for a little revenge and the trends against Lynn make these solid bets. 

CLE/SEA U 6.5 

5-3

+3.05 units for the day

CLE/SEA U6.5 

4-3

Adding:

CLE/SEA U6.5 (+100)

Two really good pitchers who should go at least 6 inn and both teams with solid pens I like this to be 3-2, 4-2 type of game.

Adding:

COL ML +185

I like the pitching matchup with Marquez. He’s been good on opening days and I don’t like Snell to hold down the Rockies.

MIA ML 

Nick Gordon O1.5 hits 

3-3

CIN/PIT U4 1st 5 

3-1

H. Greene O7.5 K 

3-0

Adding:

Nick Gordon O1.5 hits (+190)

Grienke is old as dirt and even though it’s a small sample size, Gordon is 7 for 11 against him. I like his chances to get a multi-hit game today.

NYY/SF U6.5 

2-0

Adding:

CIN/PIT U4 1st 5 (-110)

H. Greene O7.5 K (+115)

These are bad teams, however, Greene’s last 5 starts were 8 K’s or more, including 10 vs PIT in 6 innings.

Mitch Keller had a rough start to the 2022 season but in his last 8 starts he only had 1 game where he gave up 3 ER’s. 

I’m going with a low scoring affair in the early part of the game before the pens get involved. 

Nailed the Judge HR 

@Fuse

nothing like getting the first W on the first bet of the season

@Tha_Commish77

 NYY RL 1st 5 -0.5 

1-0 +105

NYY RL -0.5 (+105) 1st 5

NYY/SF U6.5 (+100)

MIA ML (+105)

Cole will take advantage of a weaker SF lineup but Webb is a ground ball pitcher so I believe the Yanks get out to a lead and hold in a Lower scoring game.

I’m going with the best SP in the NL at home on opening day with plus money.

GL all 

@jezhead

I love your perspectives and appreciate the advanced stats.

I had the Blues on Tuesday night as I thought the wrong team was favored. 

Tonight, the only difference is the back up goalies are in net.

Vladar has been a pretty decent back up with a 2.76 GAA where only 3 of his 14 starts he’s given up 4 or more goals.

Greiss hasn’t been that great with a 3.23 GAA. In his previous 5 starts, he’s given up 14 goals but he’s coming off a shutout 4 days ago. He also was in net when these teams played a month ago stopping 41 shots, giving up 2 goals.

I don’t see value in laying -160 on Calgary (I agree if you’re going to take them, take the regulation line) but these teams have gone over the total in 5 of the last 6 and the Blues have been an over machine so to me that’s the play if any. 

Those are my thoughts.

BOL 

A case can be made that’s it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a row and I get that can be a thing.