twozerosix

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replied to Hedging advice? in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Deathace: Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :) I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes. I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds). Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors. 1st Scenario - Either let it ride or guarantee yourself ~$100 in profit betting PIT ML using the hedge calculator. 2nd Scenario - I'm in the same boat as you and you can hedge this because the colts game is SNF. Depending on your thinking...an example on the very left of the spectrum (if you are confident the Jags could win but want to hedge) - you could bet Texans ML $495 to win $165. IF Texans win... profit = $0 IF Texans lose... your future bet placed turns into a straight Colts ML ticket at $165 to win $2239 From here you could use the hedge calculator to guarantee profit of ~$1,200. I will be choosing to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and am expecting a Texans win so I will be betting a large sum on Texans ML... and then if that loses leaving just enough wiggle room to breakeven with a TEN ML ticket. Let me know if you have questions - I am using https://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php as my calculator. View Post \| View Thread	Deathace	7	December 27, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to suuma's wildcard round 2015 in NFL Betting With you here got it early at -4. My only worry is the weather. 10am start for Seattle plus forecast of 1 degree at gametime. I think I like MIN TT Under better but a D/ST score and you probably lose that. All that said I see SEA winning by 7+. View Post \| View Thread	suuma	89	January 06, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The proof of 2015: Why you will have longterm success when capping the fundamentals of this game in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101: The NFL is a business. They will fix a game to heighten interest of a playoff chase and there are fixes in nationally televised games. Stop thinking there is no way it can be fixed. Open your eyes. People who think/know its fixed still will bet the games and the NFL knows that. My eyes are open. Tell me the most obvious fixed game this year and I'll watch on gamepass. View Post \| View Thread	suuma	89	January 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The proof of 2015: Why you will have longterm success when capping the fundamentals of this game in NFL Betting Yeah I think William Hill said that 86% of the money was on the Jets. There is no way that is correct. View Post \| View Thread	suuma	89	January 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The proof of 2015: Why you will have longterm success when capping the fundamentals of this game in NFL Betting There was nothing that said the Bills would win. LOL. You can't think of any?? This line was not "fishy at all". Jets giving 3 points on the road equals giving 9 points at home. If the line in NY was Jets -9 wouldn't everyone be on Buffalo??? You have to take into account the 3 points you get for HFA. This was one of the best motivational spots of the year!!!!! Rex Ryan, known as one of the biggest players/ motivational coaches in the league going against the team that fired him for a chance to keep them from going to the playoffs??? What more could you want?? AND you get 3 points at home. Not to mention they had already beat them IN NY earlier in the year. Not to mention this is a divisional rivalry with or without Rex. Not to mention the Jets played like garbage in the previous two games and were fortunate to win both. My guess is some books actually needed the Jets in this game due to all the big money coming in on the Bills. The Jets couldn't cover 3 on the road against DAL. Now giving 3 points on the road to BUF against one the best motivational spots all year is a "fishy line". lol If it helps you win to think there is a fix go ahead. It's much easier to cap games using things that are true imo View Post \| View Thread	suuma	89	January 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to So who thinks they know the story line for this years Super Bowl? in NFL Betting You realize there is a storyline no matter what teams make it... View Post \| View Thread	bpickin	57	January 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Saints +6 tomorrow? Drew Brees vs Falcons in NFL Betting And Falcons have a let down after winning their Super Bowl View Post \| View Thread	Gumerk	13	January 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic this is the week to ML Parlay the big favorites. in NFL Betting Past 5 years, favorites of -7 or more in Week 17 of the NFL are 33-1 Straight up. CAR/NE/PIT/CIN/KC/DEN ML Parlay View Post \| View Thread	twozerosix	7	January 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to TCU-Oregon was a classic Vegas trap in College Football This guy actually thinks he was on the right side lol.... I cashed but UO was clearly the right side View Post \| View Thread	DannyStacks	26	January 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic IF THE NFL IS FIXED..... in Penalty Box then they wouldnt possibly let the Steelers miss the playoffs right??? So bet the house on BUF... Am I doing this right ??? View Post \| View Thread	twozerosix	19	January 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Who's got Seahawks in NFL Betting GB probably the first team Seattle wants to play... View Post \| View Thread	kd29	13	January 03, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Seahawks @ Cardinals: Does anyone know why AZ jumped from -3.5 to -7? in NFL Betting Carroll has said repeatedly that he won't rest players and its not in his DNA. The Seahawks are not scared of anyone and would not lose a game on purpose to play a certain team. I guarantee that. This is a classic overreaction to last week. ARI beat up a team thought to be good, GB, while SEA lost to a bad team in STL. View Post \| View Thread	hustle_man	14	December 30, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Seahawks @ Cardinals: Does anyone know why AZ jumped from -3.5 to -7? in NFL Betting This line is crazy. Gotta take the points View Post \| View Thread	hustle_man	14	December 30, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Has a Monday night home team covered this year? in NFL Betting Nvm not that game. View Post \| View Thread	bpickin	10	December 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Has a Monday night home team covered this year? in NFL Betting Broncos vs Chiefs View Post \| View Thread	bpickin	10	December 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to don't know why nfl teams dont attempt an onside kick after accepting a personal foul in NFL Betting You're right. At least one team should be doing this. I hate how on defense at the end of the half, teams don't just grab every defender, get a defensive holding call, waste time, and make em kick a FG. View Post \| View Thread	HighScore	3	December 22, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to SNF - Dallas Jets IN GAME in NFL Betting dallas still gonna cover with moore ?? LOL View Post \| View Thread	dopeman	77	December 19, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to SB 50 prediction with 3 games left in the regular season in NFL Betting Pats/Hawks rematch View Post \| View Thread	NeverMind	28	December 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL underdogs of 7-plus points are 28-17 ATS (62.2 percent) this year. SIX GAMES WEEK 14 in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight: I mean if you're going to follow the pattern aren't you relying on it to continue at a 62%+ (or close) winrate? If so it seems you should take them all instead of potentially messing it up with your own judgement. So San Diego and Baltimore would be in play. I'd rather take note of a pattern and use it to my advantage in certain spots then blindly follow it and hope it continues. I think the favorites go 3-3 ATS in these games this week. Balt is unplayable with Clausen. See Week 3 Bears @ Seahawks. SD is unplayable because looks like they have nothing to play for. Not gonna be in SD next year, Mccoy will be fired, and their injury report is terrible. We will see what happens tomorrow. View Post \| View Thread	twozerosix	9	December 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic NFL underdogs of 7-plus points are 28-17 ATS (62.2 percent) this year. SIX GAMES WEEK 14 in NFL Betting ATL +8 TEN +7 SD +10 BAL +13 DAL +7 OAK +7 Let's see how this continues to play out. SD & BAL are unplayable imo. I like ATL & TEN to cover. OAK & GB have moved to 6.5 or a juiced 7. Will possibly live bet these. View Post \| View Thread	twozerosix	9	December 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread

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