vegasjack2

Well, you can’t use the location as a factor. Okay, lets go to Vegas. Say Caesars Palace has 51% on New Orleans, does that mean that the MGM, Mirage, and Palms all have to as well?

If you think that Covers.com or VegasInsider or Sports Insights has a true number on each book combined, you’re a fucking idiot too. All of those numbers are generated from FREE pickem contests and public polls. The numbers mean NOTHING.

Most important out of all of this, these are tallying the percentage of BETS not MONEY. What the hell difference does it make to me as a bookmaker if I have 100 clients who each bet $1 on New Orleans and 1 that bets $50,000 on San Francisco? I have a 99.1% consensus on New Orleans, but that 0.09% will put me on the street.

How do you really know which side is which? You don’t. How do you really know who ALL the books need? You don’t.

This is just a prime example of how POWERFUL and INFLUENTIAL the media is today especially when it comes to sports gambling. Another prime example of such is the New Orleans Saints.

I will start off by pointing out the clear over compensation for the Saints in this game. My lines that I released reflected the true value of this game, PK. Vegas and offshore released NO -3 and now NO -4. Here is why I consider this line to be highly inflated. Typical home field in the playoffs reflects 5-6 points in the line meaning according to Vegas if this game was played in the Superdome, the Saints would be a 9.5 to 10.5 point favorite just like they were last week. In other words, this line is saying that the Lions and 49ers are equal teams.

I am not sure there is one person that could agree with that last statement. This raises the question, What is SF really worth in this game? The true line of a game played in NO would be NO -6.5 or -7 meaning the Saints are dead even with the 49ers on an even field. Going to play on the road the Saints are all of the sudden 3 points better than the 49ers. The Saints are 3 points BETTER than on a Neutral Field even though everyone including the Saints players admittedly state that the Saints are worse on the road? This line is inflated by 4 points and your telling me there is value in taking the Saints!? Not a chance in hell. I get a free 4 points along with a better defense, better special teams and more familiarity with the surface and almost a better match-up in 9 of the 11 positions either side of the ball. This

line should be a PK certainly not -4.

New Orleans has been on National TV four times since their winning streak both SU and ATS began. They hung 49 on the Giants, 31 on the Lions, 45 on the Falcons and 45 on the Lions again. Each game was played at home in the Superdome, each game was over the total. The betting audience has a false view on what the Saints really are. Just like the first time you meet a girl. You hang out at her place alone or with a couple friends for the first little while, then you finally go out to a bar and she turns out to be a complete person and fucks you over by banging every guy in sight.

The betting audience has a good thing going with the Saints and they have yet to be proven otherwise. No one betting this game has a valid argument to back the Saints besides, they are explosive offensively, they have Drew Brees and Alex Smith sucks.

This is not a quarterback vs. quarterback game guys. This is a game of match-ups. New Orleans is able to expose and capitalize on almost every team because of their speed. Sure they have quick players, but they are built to play in the dome. First of all, going into New Orleans and playing in the Superdome is not an easy thing to do for any team, period. You put any team up against a flurry of offense and speed on the carpet and you have a recipe for a beat down. Exactly what has happened in six of the past eight weeks.

The Saints now go to Candlestick to play the best defense in the Conference and most importantly play on grass. Here is info I love see and have in my corner. The grounds crew at Candlestick fertilized on Sunday and have watered the absolute PISS out of the field since. The crew also negated giving the grass a final cut on Friday and will not cut on Saturday before the game. This grass is going to be long, this grass is going to be thick and it is going to be SLOW. Forget the fact that the 49ers tallied 48 sacks in the regular season and have a phenomenal pass rush, they are going to be playing on a surface they are familiar with vs. a team that is out of their element.

The 49ers had an incredible +28 turnover margin in the regular season. The Saints are not terrific at holding on to the ball. Even in games where they dominate fumbles are frequent and there are often numerous chances for interceptions. When a player has a slight doubt in his feet, it makes a world of difference for ball control. The Saints also capitalize on numerous opponent turnovers because teams are consistently coming from behind and forced to pass more than usual. This is not part of the Niners plan. San Francisco is going to be all about clock management and ball control. This offense makes NO mistakes what so ever and has proven that over the 16 games they played this season. Ball control is number one for this Niners team today.

The Saints were the likely opponent for San Francisco which means the 49ers more or less had two weeks to prepare as well as one full game of scouting. I find that in the playoffs especially, all the players rather than just the harder working ones come COMPLETELY prepared for their match-up. Every player for the Niners watched last weeks game and they all have a head start on their match-ups rather than simply trying to beef up all you can in the four days prior to a regular season game.

Don’t let the fact that many people are picking the upset fool you here, it should happen. Four points, way to many.

This San Francisco New Orleans game is referred to as the classic “Sharp vs. Public” side game. Honestly though, what does that really mean? Neither team is exclusive to one an other. Just because you bet $10 a game for fun every Sunday means you can’t bet on the 49ers? Just because you play $10,000 a game and are highly respected means you can’t bet on the Saints? Everyone is so hell bent on trying to figure out which side the sharps are on or which side the books need its getting out of hand. It also disgusts me to see how stupid some people are by thinking what applies at one book applies to every other one.

Some dumbass sent me a message on Twitter, “I am seeing websites posting that New Orleans is getting only 51% of the betting action, that means the books don’t need either side.”

I never realized people could be this fucking stupid. A, that is 99% likely not true. For those of you who have never read my truth on consensus numbers, do so now. B, if that is true, do you honestly think that applies to all other sportsbooks? So maybe one book in Boston has 51% of the bets on New Orleans, what about a bookie in San Francisco? Think he has 51% on the Saints?

This is where I make my money. The opposite factor plays big into early portions of big games. Remember last year? Scoreless first quarter. Wow! Did that just happen? Two big defensive stops early and all of the sudden all the players wake up, they are a little scared. This game today is going to start with a big play. As much as I want to say Trent Richardson breaks a run, I have a feeling it will come courtesy of an Alabama touchdown, 20-30 yards off a play action pass, something up the middle between the zones. This is going to scare LSU a little bit. I can see them answering with a field goal. Something like 7-3 or 10-3 at the end of the first quarter in favor of Alabama. The second quarter is always to the strengths. Things will slow down a little bit. Teams switch side, take a breath, okay, national championship. I don’t see a ton of scoring this quarter, Ill give each team a field goal. 13-6 Alabama at halftime. Third quarter is going to be average. Typically this is when the team trailing pulls back. Look for LSU to tie things up in the 3^rd, 13-13. Alabama then gets the ball back and will be shooting for a clock draining drive. I expect them to have a drive that starts late in the third and finishes early in the 4^th, 20-13 Alabama. LSU will be back against the wall and forced to drive via the pass. This is where a big defensive play turns things around. Alabama gets the ball and will score again with a minute or two remaining. 23-13. LSU will get the late touchdown to put this over the total and be unable to score again, Alabama 23-20 is the most likely final score.

Other ways this could go are all changed late in the game. The defensive play in the fourth could result in a touchdown, 27-20 final, perhaps a 27-13 putting it right on the total. If this game sticks on the 7’s which I do not believe it will due to superior red zone play, you could see a 28-14 Bama win.

To me all of those make sense, putting the total right around 42 (for me) and Alabama at least -2.5 (for me) if not -3. To flip things around does not make sense. Assuming this game is played out at the rate I expect, LSU will be unable to hold off the Alabama comeback. Following my game flow, this means that the best player on the field (Trent Richardson) and the better passing attack will be held scoreless in the first half, along with garbage time in the fourth while the Tigers are in prevent defense. It also means that the Alabama offense will have to make 1 more mistake then the Tigers. Do you honestly expect Richardson to fumble one more time then either Lee or Jefferson will throw an INT. I can’t see it happening.

The only logical prediction that you can make for LSU will be if once the score is tied in the third quarter, the Tide kick a FG and LSU answers with a TD putting them up four points. This sets up for the 20-19 one point LSU win, keeping the game short of most posted totals. To say LSU can win 24-14 or 24-17 or 28-14 or 24-21 is outrageous in my mind. To honestly predict an LSU victory, you will have to step out and hope for a vastly different game flow then likely projected while Alabama victories fit any logical game flow.

For those of you thinking that this is just a favorite based medium, your wrong. When projecting a game flow I ask myself, what will have to happen for this team to cover or who will exceed their expectations in order to affect the betting line. Often times it generates a dog out playing their expected rate, not this time.

Considering that Alabama has the bigger bets, goes against the bullshit perception found on the internet, fits all logical game flows and is at the number I opened with and projected, they are without a doubt the team you should be betting on tonight.

Enjoy the big game. Hopefully you all had a great NCAA Season, I look forward to discussing the game all day with your guys and seeing how things play out after.

ALABAMA BY 4+.

3 in the last 30 days. I try play about 5-6 a month on average for $800-$1400 a game and make $3000-4000 profit. Make a solid stress free living. Started blogging and posting on Covers this season, sorry if I offended you by not playing this game.

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Yesterday went a little bit long, going to keep today a little bit shorter for those of you who don’t have tons of time to be reading all of this.

This line opened up at -11 at nearly every location. I opened up with TCU -8.5 as I was sure the number was going to move down. Sure enough, it hit 8.5 at numerous locations last night and currently sits at 9 offshore and 8.5 at all my locations. I had to move the line up to 9 earlier in the week because many people were hitting TCU as the bargain was out there in a big way.

A ton of people are over estimating the public money on this game. Almost every website on the internet has a conflicting report. If you want to know the truth about these websites and their consensus numbers, look back in my previous write-ups.

The truth is, the consensus numbers in this game are no where near what is posted online. This game had considerable LAT money early on driving the line down, but most of that has been bought back. There is just over $1.75 on TCU per $1 of LAT tonight at my 12 locations . Depending on where the line is, anywhere from 11 to 8, I estimate that even LAT could have more money on them then the Horned Frogs do.

This is a game where the consensus simply does not matter. The matchups determine the game, and they all sway heavily to TCU’s favor.

Anytime you are betting a big favorite in bowl season, you can be confident when they have two things. Strong offensive and defensive lines, and the ability to put up points. TCU is not a team that will get the cover tonight by slowing the other team down. They are a team that will get the cover going away. Rather than saying, can TCU do enough to get the cover, you can say will Louisiana Tech do enough to make this a game. I believe the answer is no.

TCU has a significant advantage at QB, RB, Oline, Dline, LB and through coaching. TCU is phenomenal on third down which is a must have when laying this many points. They ranked second in the nation only behind GT on third down efficiency. LAT, ranked 97^th. The Bulldogs will not be able to keep up at the pace TCU will be hanging points on the board. This is the one time in bowl season you can be comfortable laying this many points. Right team, right match-up right scenario.

Once again I will not be betting on the game, I have only played three games in the past 30 days, but if you are I would be comfortable that TCU wins by double digits and covers the 9 point spread.