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Euro 2012....

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Posted: #1276
wow, Klose for Gomez is basically a push but why bench Podolski and Meuller? Did they break some team rules or something? 
 
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Posted: #1277
Van, you're still going with the under 2.5?

 
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Posted: #1278
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I understand - but you are taking out a working combination that has had several weeks of playing together.

To me - the potential risks outweigh the rewards here....

imo, germany didnt dominate in any of their group matches (except against holland)...if they r to make a lineup change, this is the time to do it, against a depleted greece squad.

 
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Posted: #1279
this benching does make me like 0-0 halftime score even more now. 

will take some time for the team to gel in game action. 
 
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Posted: #1280
i like the change on germany. Reus, and Schurle should be better combined with Klose. Low noticed the problem with Gomez up front supported by Muller. it is too similar with Munchen system but without the support of Robben and Ribery in flank. If Low really wants to use Munchen system he should take ozil out and bring kroos in, the problem is Low didn't really like kroos, so with this new formation, he tweak the system and build it around ozil rather than build it around munchen system. This is a gamble and i think Loew use it now because this is the best time to use it (Greece is on paper the worst opposition that Germany faced in Euro 2012 up til now, and too much risk to employ the new system facing Denmark because Germany can be eliminated if Denmark wins). He still have 2nd half to do tweaking if anything goes wrong in 1st half.
 
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Posted: #1281
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Here are the first two....

Sorry about the lack of writeups - I wanted to get them up and I have just been busy with betting and other shit....

My other two games are bigger - one 5 unit play and one 2.5 unit play - just getting those finalized before I post and write them up.

So here they are:

1.  Czech +.5 +115 1 unit.
2.  Greece / Germany under 2.5 -110 2 units.

GL - I will be around to discuss tomorrow - but didnt want to wait that long to post....



Do you like Germany? Not gonna lay -300 or worse, but Germany to win 1-0 +600 and 2-0 +500 interest me. Thoughts? I dont think Greece even sniffs an opportunity to score today and they will be way more concerned with defense.

Strong work thus far Van
 
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Posted: #1282

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



Do you like Germany? Not gonna lay -300 or worse, but Germany to win 1-0 +600 and 2-0 +500 interest me. Thoughts? I dont think Greece even sniffs an opportunity to score today and they will be way more concerned with defense.

Strong work thus far Van

 

Greece TT Under 0.5 is -144, if you are looking for a more affordable alternative to Germany ML.  I think this is likely what I'll be playing.

All of Greece's goals thus far in the tourney have come off of defensive mistakes, which I do not expect Germany to make.  It also helps having a top 3 goalkeeper back there too!

 

 
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Posted: #1283
I love the switch, this is a big advantage for Germany IMO. Podolski lacks the talent and can't perform in big games. Klose is a closer and has played in spectacular in these pressure games for years, it's a strange move since Gomez has played great during their run but I'm sure he'll be a factor late in the game as well.
Muller
 
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Posted: #1284
What really worries me, is that Greece elimanated Russia which of course was a big favorite in EURO. So the question here is, it will happen again with Germany?
 
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Posted: #1285
Mullers played well but Reus and Schurle will add a faster dynamic and a deadly counter attack should Greece try to put pressure on Germany early. I really like this squad and have hoped Schurle started over Podolski all tournament.
I wouldn't be surprised to see ze Germans up 2-0 at HF
 
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Posted: #1286
Also great job van, your thread and insights been nothing but world class. Cheers and ty for your knowledge on this beautiful game
 
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Posted: #1287
Quote Originally Posted by ChiliDogs_3:

 

Greece TT Under 0.5 is -144, if you are looking for a more affordable alternative to Germany ML.  I think this is likely what I'll be playing.

All of Greece's goals thus far in the tourney have come off of defensive mistakes, which I do not expect Germany to make.  It also helps having a top 3 goalkeeper back there too!

 

I played this, albeit at a better price. There's also the "Germany win to nil" bet which basically parlays the 2 outcomes. I don't think anyone's interested in laying the -300 or more on Germany to win in 90, but there's plenty of viable alternatives.

 
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Posted: #1288

Quote Originally Posted by Guaji:

What really worries me, is that Greece elimanated Russia which of course was a big favorite in EURO. So the question here is, it will happen again with Germany?

To compare Germany and Russia is laughable. It's not to say that Greece couldn't pull the stunner today as they always seem to make it further in these tournaments than they look like they should, but Germany >>>>>>>>>>> Russia.

 
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Posted: #1289

90mins + Injury time only for Totals/ML's/spread.

ONLY "To Advance" lines have action beyond the standard 90 mins.

 

 
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Posted: #1290

Quote Originally Posted by ionlywingames:

newbie question, when playing an under in the knockout stage, if the game is 1-1 After regulation is that what the Under goes off, or does the bet continue into the penalty kicks/extra time.

here

 
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Posted: #1291

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



Do you like Germany? Not gonna lay -300 or worse, but Germany to win 1-0 +600 and 2-0 +500 interest me. Thoughts? I dont think Greece even sniffs an opportunity to score today and they will be way more concerned with defense.

Strong work thus far Van

I do think 1-0 or 2-0 is the most likely results.

Dont want to see an early goal for sure - but I cant see the Greeks having much of the ball, or many chances.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1292
Prime rib for everyone after the under hits 
 
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Posted: #1293
step into a slim jim 
 
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Posted: #1294
Van, Vegas Snitch is going opposite of you today. 
 
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Posted: #1295
I have 3% of my bankroll invested on a future bet on France to win the tourney at +840. Should hedging be an option here or should I ride tomorrow out?

Thanks.
 
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Posted: #1296
Quote Originally Posted by DetroitSlappy:

I have 3% of my bankroll invested on a future bet on France to win the tourney at +840. Should hedging be an option here or should I ride tomorrow out?

Thanks.


France is currently +1300 to win the tournament. At this point hedging would mean taking a significant loss. Can't really hedge a bet that's current price is higher than the one you got.
 
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Posted: #1297
This should be 5-0 already lol
 
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Posted: #1298
***I should say you can't hedge for PROFIT. If you want to hedge and buy out that can definitely be done.
 
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Posted: #1299

Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:

This should be 5-0 already lol

You are right, but you could really say this any time you bet a Greece game.

Im thinking I should just go see a movie or something - watching this while having the under is torture.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #1300
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

You are right, but you could really say this any time you bet a Greece game.

Im thinking I should just go see a movie or something - watching this while having the under is torture.


The exact reason I didn't go bigger than I did.  I know (or maybe I think) that it's the right side but my heart couldn't take it.  I foresaw this exact type of game.  Let's hope it starts to die out late in the second half if it gets to 2-0...
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