Starting a thread to contribute picks and good vibes to the forum. My only live wager before starting this thread is Portugal +600 to win Euros 2024; you can still get that +550 so I'll count it towards my units PnL going forward. Euros, Copa, Olympics. I often make my plays within an hour of kickoff due to lineups and also my schedule; is what it is.
I wish everyone a profitable summer of soccer!
Chile v Argentina:
Lots of work in the engine room tonight. Chile will likely park the bus and look to use quick counters to alleviate pressure. 1) Mourinho, Italy, etc style gameplan is the only path forward for Chile's personnel; 2) Canada has already shown that as a viable strategy this tourney; 3) Argentina (and Brazil) have been building patient offensive possessions largely due to lack of time spent on the pitch together, its natural to want to rely on natural abilities vs inferior opponents; and 4) Chile have a good solid core of defensive-minded players that know how to play this style and will be up for a fight.
Instead of laying juice Chile +1 or other spread variation, or an under that is also juicy, I like 2 other angles at plus money each. Expect the CM/CDM's on both squads to dish and receive a lot of contact, and thus a good amount of tackles. Cards give discretion to refs, tackles are more simple. I think both Enzo and Eccheveria register 2+ tackles this game. I also think Argie will be forced into Chile's pace for at least 45-60 mins of this match.
Starting a thread to contribute picks and good vibes to the forum. My only live wager before starting this thread is Portugal +600 to win Euros 2024; you can still get that +550 so I'll count it towards my units PnL going forward. Euros, Copa, Olympics. I often make my plays within an hour of kickoff due to lineups and also my schedule; is what it is.
I wish everyone a profitable summer of soccer!
Chile v Argentina:
Lots of work in the engine room tonight. Chile will likely park the bus and look to use quick counters to alleviate pressure. 1) Mourinho, Italy, etc style gameplan is the only path forward for Chile's personnel; 2) Canada has already shown that as a viable strategy this tourney; 3) Argentina (and Brazil) have been building patient offensive possessions largely due to lack of time spent on the pitch together, its natural to want to rely on natural abilities vs inferior opponents; and 4) Chile have a good solid core of defensive-minded players that know how to play this style and will be up for a fight.
Instead of laying juice Chile +1 or other spread variation, or an under that is also juicy, I like 2 other angles at plus money each. Expect the CM/CDM's on both squads to dish and receive a lot of contact, and thus a good amount of tackles. Cards give discretion to refs, tackles are more simple. I think both Enzo and Eccheveria register 2+ tackles this game. I also think Argie will be forced into Chile's pace for at least 45-60 mins of this match.
I love draws but this narrative has become much too consensus; it'll prob go out even money, vs typically markets for draws +180-280 sweet spot. I see the logic but not the value. Too much can go wrong on the big stage even when playing safe. Draws are gut plays and I just dont have it today. Both teams are old, Slovakia more experienced than Romania, but I like the spirit of the Romanian squad and think they can generate more chances and maybe a key set piece or 2 down the stretch.
Romania pk +120 (1 unit)
Under 1.5 +130 (1 unit)
Ukraine v Belgium:
Expect lots of bravery from Ukraine today - i think they go for it, attempting to set the game speed at a higher more disruptive pace and use their very talented midfield to generate opportunities for Dovbyk who by the way scored 27 goals in 32 games for Girona in La Liga this season. Sudakov is on everyone's radar and I think the 21yo Shakhtar kid will ball today. Meanwhile, I dont think Belgium is that good of a team, but they have good players and will be able to get their chances when Ukraine gets stretched or makes mistakes. But Lukaku is gonna have to finish. This game should have goals. And a goal in Slovakia/Romania which everyone thinks will be snoozer draw could shake up the Belgians, too.
I love draws but this narrative has become much too consensus; it'll prob go out even money, vs typically markets for draws +180-280 sweet spot. I see the logic but not the value. Too much can go wrong on the big stage even when playing safe. Draws are gut plays and I just dont have it today. Both teams are old, Slovakia more experienced than Romania, but I like the spirit of the Romanian squad and think they can generate more chances and maybe a key set piece or 2 down the stretch.
Romania pk +120 (1 unit)
Under 1.5 +130 (1 unit)
Ukraine v Belgium:
Expect lots of bravery from Ukraine today - i think they go for it, attempting to set the game speed at a higher more disruptive pace and use their very talented midfield to generate opportunities for Dovbyk who by the way scored 27 goals in 32 games for Girona in La Liga this season. Sudakov is on everyone's radar and I think the 21yo Shakhtar kid will ball today. Meanwhile, I dont think Belgium is that good of a team, but they have good players and will be able to get their chances when Ukraine gets stretched or makes mistakes. But Lukaku is gonna have to finish. This game should have goals. And a goal in Slovakia/Romania which everyone thinks will be snoozer draw could shake up the Belgians, too.
The idea that you would play for a draw that would give you 4 points and 2nd place or 3rd place to advance and play the most in-form teams, instead of trying to WIN the group and play less- or not-in-form teams that happen to have higher FIFA rankings, is insane to me.
The idea that you would play for a draw that would give you 4 points and 2nd place or 3rd place to advance and play the most in-form teams, instead of trying to WIN the group and play less- or not-in-form teams that happen to have higher FIFA rankings, is insane to me.
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