International Futbol Picks

Starting a thread to contribute picks and good vibes to the forum. My only live wager before starting this thread is Portugal +600 to win Euros 2024; you can still get that +550 so I'll count it towards my units PnL going forward. Euros, Copa, Olympics. I often make my plays within an hour of kickoff due to lineups and also my schedule; is what it is. 

I wish everyone a profitable summer of soccer!

Chile v Argentina:

Lots of work in the engine room tonight. Chile will likely park the bus and look to use quick counters to alleviate pressure. 1) Mourinho, Italy, etc style gameplan is the only path forward for Chile's personnel; 2) Canada has already shown that as a viable strategy this tourney; 3) Argentina (and Brazil) have been building patient offensive possessions largely due to lack of time spent on the pitch together, its natural to want to rely on natural abilities vs inferior opponents; and 4) Chile have a good solid core of defensive-minded players that know how to play this style and will be up for a fight. 

Instead of laying juice Chile +1 or other spread variation, or an under that is also juicy, I like 2 other angles at plus money each. Expect the CM/CDM's on both squads to dish and receive a lot of contact, and thus a good amount of tackles. Cards give discretion to refs, tackles are more simple. I think both Enzo and Eccheveria register 2+ tackles this game. I also think Argie will be forced into Chile's pace for at least 45-60 mins of this match. 

Adding:

Enzo o1.5 tackles / Eccheveria o1.5 tackles parlay +100 (1 unit)

1H u0.5 +160 (1 unit)

Pending: 

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +600 (2 units)

1H u0.5 +160 (1 unit) 

1-0 (+1.6u)

Adding:

Argie o5.5 corners *live* +130 (1 unit)

Pending:

Enzo o1.5 tackles / Eccheveria o1.5 tackles parlay +100 (1 unit)

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +600 (2 units)

1H u0.5 +160 (1 unit) 

Argie o5.5 corners *live* +130 (1 unit) 

Enzo o1.5 tackles / Eccheveria o1.5 tackles parlay +100 (1 unit) 

Argie corners goes over and Enzo gets subbed with only 1 statistical tackle (somehow).

Best of luck to Argie backers -- where's GARNACHO??? 

2-1 (+1.9u)

Pending:

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +600 (2 units)

more corners still coming 

2-1 (+1.9u)

Pending:

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +600 (2 units)

Slovakia v Romania:

I love draws but this narrative has become much too consensus; it'll prob go out even money, vs typically markets for draws +180-280 sweet spot. I see the logic but not the value. Too much can go wrong on the big stage even when playing safe. Draws are gut plays and I just dont have it today. Both teams are old, Slovakia more experienced than Romania, but I like the spirit of the Romanian squad and think they can generate more chances and maybe a key set piece or 2 down the stretch. 

Romania pk +120 (1 unit)

Under 1.5 +130 (1 unit)

Ukraine v Belgium:

Expect lots of bravery from Ukraine today - i think they go for it, attempting to set the game speed at a higher more disruptive pace and use their very talented midfield to generate opportunities for Dovbyk who by the way scored 27 goals in 32 games for Girona in La Liga this season. Sudakov is on everyone's radar and I think the 21yo Shakhtar kid will ball today. Meanwhile, I dont think Belgium is that good of a team, but they have good players and will be able to get their chances when Ukraine gets stretched or makes mistakes. But Lukaku is gonna have to finish. This game should have goals. And a goal in Slovakia/Romania which everyone thinks will be snoozer draw could shake up the Belgians, too. 

Over 2.5 -120 (1 unit)

The idea that you would play for a draw that would give you 4 points and 2nd place or 3rd place to advance and play the most in-form teams, instead of trying to WIN the group and play less- or not-in-form teams that happen to have higher FIFA rankings, is insane to me. 

Carry on.

Adding:

Georgia v Portugal over 2.5 -125 (1 unit)

Ecuador should take care of biz but I don’t like heavy juice or -1 pushes; pairing w in-form offensive threat to put 1 on-frame.

Ecuador ML + Sarmiento over 0.5 SoG +110 (1 unit)

VEN/MEX draw +225 and dropping fast (1 unit)

draw + 1H under 0.5 +500 (1/2 unit)

-5.05 units 

Took a few days off and applied the tornaquet after 4-5 match losing streak. Here we go:

England v Slovakia:

England are playing tight; I’ve never seen a presser like Southgate trying to convince the English fans to fully support their team. Self deprecation and self doubt creeping in? Narrative of growing in confidence but that speaks more to looking past Slovakia and to easier bracket than anything else. Dangerous. Dogfight, but too much value on Slovakia. I do like England to apply pressure, using total corners as anchor 2 unit bet w under 1H, Mainoo tackles over 2.5 and Slovakia +0.5 plus EV butterfly wings. LFG. 

Slovakia +0.5 +190 (1 unit)

England v Slovakia 1H under 0.5 +160 (1 unit)

Mainoo tackles over 2.5 +190 (1 unit)

Total corners over 8.5 -125 (2 units) 

England to win PK +175 (1 unit)

-4.15 units

Spain clean sheet / Spain TT over 1.5 parlay +115 (3 units)

Spain over 2.5 goals / Spain over 6.5 corners +215 (1 unit)

Spain 3-0 +550 (1/2 unit)

-5.45 units

Ecuador v Mexico:

Draw +210 (2 units)

Total corners over 9.5 -105 (2 units)

1-1 correct score +500 (1/2 unit)

Venezuela v Jamaica:

BTTS +100 (2 units)

I see 1-1 in the Mexico match as well. That'll be the one I watch this evening.

GL man

@Im_Chasing

Added live:

Ecuador v Mexico total corners over 9.5 +120 (1 unit)

Gluck bro. Hope everyone kill it tonight. We are all on the same page.  

And that is the scary part. I sat out this match. Line was moving towards no BTTS 

A lot of time left tho

I need to clean up my PnL (and my gambling) … mistakenly put 2 unit Ven/Jam corners over next to the Ecuador game which won, then did add Ecuador corners over which lost, sigh … eked out small gains Copa last night. 

France v Belgium: 

Wont repeat what others have already pointed out … keep it simple, go w best team, throw in some sort of hedge / +EV to CYA.

France ML -105 (4 units)

France to keep clean sheet +145 (1 unit)

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +800 (1 unit) ... now 3 units (2 @ +600, 1 @ +800)

Portugal ML / Portugal over 6.5 corners -110 (2 units)

Ok, some updated accounting after my posting errors re: Copa games last night ... my original Ecuador/Mexico corners wager was supposed to be filed under Jamaica/Venezuela

Here are my wagers ... 

+0.6 units for June 30 Copa: 

Mexico/Ecuador draw +210 (2 units) 

Mexico/Ecuador 1-1 draw +500 (1/2 unit) 

Mexico/Ecuador over 9.5 corners -105 (2 units) 

Jamaica/Venezuela BTTS +100 (2 units) 

Jamaica/Venezuela over 9.5 corners +120 (1 unit) 

Updated PnL after these edits and France match:

+0.6 units

Pending:

Portugal to win Euro 2024 +666 (ew) blended price (3 units)

Portugal ML / Portugal corners over 6.5 -110 (2 units)