World Cup Bets

3-0 day

+2100.

made a lot back today. 

you got Balls Vass, i won 2-1 out of 3 games too, lost the Iceland small, but won big on Brazil, made some pretty good profit today, let's hope for another good day tomorrow. Lean: Germany -1, Mexico -3/4 

FIRST PLAY BELGIUM/TUNISIA OVER 2.5 -102 $918 TO WIN $900

• As we seen in their opener with Panama, Belgium are now a tactically astute side under Martinez and will be able to break down most stubborn defences
• That being said we don't think we'll see an uber-defensive display from the Tunisians, they will likely have to take something from this game if they want to qualify
• Belgium still have question marks in defence with Boyayta at the heart of their defence. Tunisia moved the ball quite well against England, and we expect the same here
• Tunisia will be without their starting GK who was injured in the opening game which should favour Belgium's chances or finding the net
• Belgium will want to keep the pressure on England so we don't expect them to take their foot off the accelerator even if they take an early lead
• Belgium have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 11 of their last 14 games in all competitions
• Tunisia looked in disarray particularly during set pieces against England, expect Belgium's physically imposing squad to have a reasonable amount of success in this department too

PLAY TWO GERMANY/SWEDEN UNDER 2.5 -101 $909 TO WIN $900

• Sweden’s game plan here will be obvious, avoid defeat as they put themselves in an excellent chance to qualify for the knockout rounds. 
• Sweden have all the tools to frustrate Germany’s offence who had no answer for Mexico’s set up in their last game.
• Germany who gave up an embarrassing amount 3 v 2 situations against Mexico will be playing a lot more cautious. 
• Despite Germany having a ton of shots in their first game they created very few decent scoring chances with an xG (Expected goals) total of only 1.4
• Sweden have seen a total of 2 goals scored in their last 4 matches (includes 3 warm up friendlies)
• Excluding Germany's 7-1 drubbing of Brazil their last 5 games at the World Cup have seen Under 2.5 Goals
• Sweden played top level opposition 3 times in qualification (France, Holland, and Italy) a total of 6 times with 4 of those games having under 2.5 goals. (Average 1.8 goals per game)

PLAY THREE 

ROMELU LUKAKU TO SCORE ANYTIME -111 $666 TO WIN $600

write up not as detailed here....but play is simple.....he has score I think 11 times in last 9 games. He's their main striker. Man in the box. Clinical finisher when he has proper distribution, which he does from KDB, unlike in Man U lazy system at times. 

I liked the odds heavily on KDB to score anytime, but obviously a much less likelihood than Lukaku to score.

That was too easy. Lol 

LOOKING AT A FEW THINGS....2-0 SO FAR +$1500

LEANING MEXICO/S KOREA DRAW (most likely score is 1-1) BUT THERE IS ENOUGH VALUE TO TAKE THE OVER 2.5

Wow vaas, what happened to the over/under line for Germany??? Are we missing sth here??? I’m with you on under but line movement said they’re going to play a wide open game !!!!

Wow. I just saw that. Shitty odds. Whatever. Line movement doesn’t bother me that much to be honest. Stats back the under play. Game still has to be played. No idea why it would move live that. Maybe it’s a good thing? Because that’s very drastic. 

You know how many times I’ve seen heavy juice total plays loose. Whatever we’ll see, play is in. I’m not backing down. My other system that I follow only predicts 2-1 as the most likely score. 

well yes I see hummels is out. Line up will change. System accounts for over in the game actually but my write up is what I’m following. I think they’ll play more conservative here being wounded. 

I’m waiting for line ups and hammering a goal scorer. They want to fuck with my lines for the under, I’ll fuck with them. 

DONT HAVE TIME TO WRITE UP ANALYSIS.

ADDED PLAY MEXICO/SOUTH KOREA DRAW +277 $500

******on the Mexico/SK draw play****

i do think Mexico should win here, my play is A sheer long term value play. Do not play this as analysis. This is just a value play. 

Well 1-2 today. 

Mexico draw was a bad play. Jumped off my discipline. 

Germany amazing set piece. Bad beat on the under. Nothing you can do sometimes...I think I was on the right side. A sweat for any pick you made in that game. 

-500 today. Onto tomorrow. 

PLAY ONE: TUNISIA +1.5 $1000 to win $1100

• So in England's opening game it was clear that Tunisia got their tactics wrong at the start of the game and were completely overrun for about 25 mins of the game. Tunisia also looked a mess in set-pieces. This is something we shouldn’t expect from Panama.
• Panama’s game play is simple, they will foul England for 90 mins and attempt to hit them on the counter attack, like they did against Belgium, they will try slow the game down as much as possible with persistent fouling.
• England tend not to blow teams away which is why we like this bet so much, Only one of England's last 10 games has been a victory by more than 1 goal
• In qualification England won only 4 of their 10 games by more than one goal (v Malta, Lithuania, and Scotland)
• Only three of Panama’s last 17 competitive games have been loses by more than two goals
• Panama are more than capable of turning this into a very ugly game with persistent fouling and a deep line.
• It's likely that Sterling and Alli will be replaced in this game. Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Rashford are expected to stand in.

PLAY TWO: SENEGAL +128...may wait, see where this line goes though

• Japan who we stated at the start of the tournament may still be one of the weakest teams at the tournament. Not only did Japan beat a 10 man Colombia, Colombia’s performance with 10 men on the pitch was still poor
• Excluding Japan’s win over a 10 man Colombia and a Paraguay “B” team they’ve failed to win their last 5
• Japan have failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their last 14 games in all competitions. The one clean sheet came at home against North Korea.
• Senegal have a very respectable defensive record coming into this game. In qualification they kept 5 clean sheets in 8 games. They also kept 3 clean sheets in their 4 WC warm up games.
• Senegal’s job is easy here, secure a win against the weakest team in the group and progress to the R16, they will be playing for the win.
• Considering Japan’s inability to create that many problems for a 10 man Colombia we think Senegal will be very difficult to break down. 
• Both teams will be unchanged from their opening games
• We have no reason to believe this Japanese squad isn’t the weak side we seen in qualification and in the warm up games. Providing Senegal don’t shoot themselves in the foot like Colombia they should have a comfortable path to victory.

Okay I don't know what I was writing. I just finished a 14 hour shift at work,.....exhausted....LOL

PLAY ONE: PANAMA +1.5 $1000 to win $1100 

GL Vaas, with you on Senegal game, i go big on this one 

i wish i have better book to get this Parlay, love it ALOTS, i use local book so there are none parlay option : ( , solid play, GL my man