World Cup Bets

Well Iceland is the obvious garbage we knew they were. Couldn’t hold a draw against a b squad. 

Ruins my perfect day, ruins my big pay day. 

Thanks so much!! 

3-1 + 1100 I think. At work can’t add. 

GERMANY -2 +110 

**GERMANY -2/BRAZIL ML +217 $1000 to win $2170**

• Germany have had a huge weight lifted off their shoulders with their shock last minute win over Sweden and will be full of confidence to run through a Korea team that are now eliminated
• Korea have been convincingly beaten by Sweden and Mexico in their opening two games 
• Germany have to win by a convincing margin to guarantee themselves a place in the last 16
• In qualification we seen Germany rack up 9 wins by two or more goals from 10 
• Germany will want to answer critics of their opening two games here against a lesser opponent, Expect Die mannschaft to get their World Cup campaign rolling now with a convincing win

BRAZIL -1 (DEPENDING ON GERMANY -2/SWEDEN+0.5 parlay, this will be the play)

• Brazil come into this game a lot more relaxed after their difficult 2-0 victory over Costa Rica, They will know a convincing win here will almost certainly guarantee them first place in the group
• That is their goal here despite what people have been saying about a R16 meeting with Germany.
• Serbia do have to win this game as well so there are some factors to consider, as the game progresses we see them becoming increasingly desperate and losing their discipline as they did against the Swiss. The earlier Brazil score the better for us
• The weakest part of the Serbs game is their defence in my opinion, in every other position that have a lot of talent, but their GK and entire back 4 are liabilities against this pacey Brazil side.
• Tosic(CB), Ivanovic (RB), and Kolarov (LB) have a combined age of 99
• Looking at the xG (Expected Goals) for Serbia's games against Costa Rica and Switzerland we can see they gave up a lot of good scoring opportunities to both teams, we can only expect that number to rise here against a far more clinical Brazil side.
• Brazil have won 18 of 24 games under Tite and are averaging 2.2 goals per game, expect Brazil to return to their best here as they run out comfortable winners.

Vaas, may I know why you love sweden +0.5

My analysis for Sweden game is totally different from the expert cappers, I just think it’s very rare when both teams haven’t secured to lock in the next stage and one team to get 9 pts, more on the psychological factor, it didn’t happen in 2014 and 2010 

so far we have 2 9 pts group leaders and we see something in common, both teams have qualified , which means they can focus to get the win and a bit more relaxed playing into the 3rd match, and i expect there will be a winner for England vs Belgium as well, let’s see

Shocking day to say the least. 

I like Columbia but taking a couple days off. Regroup for knockouts 

3 WRITE UPS FOR TODAY! 

Columbia ML $800

• Colombia need a win here to secure their qualification and likely tie up 1st place in the group depending on results in Japan v Poland
• Colombia are coming off a morale boost 3-0 thrashing of Poland which makes up for the freak Japanese defeat
• As has been evident through the first two games, Senegal have world class talent in a handful of players but the rest are a huge liability. The biggest being their GK Khadim N'Diaye
• Colombia have found the net 2+ times in 5 of their last 7 games at the World Cup
• Senegal know that a draw is enough to send them through to the knockout round but unfortunately for them we don’t think they have discipline or personel to hold Colombia at bay. Expect the South Americans to get the job done here in what looks like a huge mismatch

Poland ML $700 (might play lew to score here too)

• Although it's true that Japan will likely only need a draw to progress we don't see this one finishing 0-0, Poland have nothing to play for but pride and nothing less than a win will do for them.
• Generally teams that get eliminated don’t completely give up in their last group game, they’ll want to give their fans at home and travelling support something to cheer for and they'll have no reason to play a conservative game.
• Japan have a poor record against European sides losing their last 4 (Bosnia, Ukraine, Belgium, and Switzerland)
• Japan have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 15 games and as we've seen from the opening two games in this tournament their defence and particularly Eiji Kawashima (GK) are liabilities.
• Japan have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 games, the game against 10 man Colombia was the one game they didn't
• Poland are the more talented side, expect them to end their dissapointing campaign with a W

Tunisia ML $900

• This match is about national pride with both teams getting beaten convincingly by both England and Belgium but we must take in consideration the quality of these two teams and the North Africans are the more talented bunch who play their domestic football at a much higher level.
  
• Tunisia going home with their first World Cup win since the 1970’s will be a huge victory for them so don’t expect them to take this game lightly
• Panama will be without the suspended Armando Cooper (starting CM) and and Murillo (starting RB) - Between the two of them they have 124 caps for the National team.
• 37 year old Felipe Baloy (plays in Guatemalan league) should slot into the back four for Panama while 21 year old Avila who plays in Panamanian League should stand in for the experienced Cooper
• Tunisia will be weakened in defence with Bronn and Ben Youssef both out injured but have a lot more depth than this Panama side so shouldn’t be as affected by their absentees
• The last three matches Tunisia have competed in have all been against teams ranked in the Top 12 of the FIFA World Rankings (Belgium, England, and Spain) so perhaps some recency bias is giving us a better price than would have been expected pre-tournament.
• Prior to those games against the European heavy weights Tunisia went unbeaten in 9 and put in impressive performances against Egypt (1-0) Iran (1-0) and Portugal (2-2) Panama represent a big step down in quality in comparison to who they’ve been playing this year
• Panama have conceded a goal on average every 20 minutes at this World Cup and now winless in 8 of their last 9 games

what does that mean? 

gl tomorrow bollox 

poland isn't my biggest buy here....its a sheer value play with a high ml. 

****UPDATE***** 

COLUMBIA ML SWITCHED TO OVER 2.5

• Colombia need a win here to secure their qualification and likely tie up 1st place in the group depending on results in Japan v Poland
• Colombia are coming off a morale boost 3-0 thrashing of Poland which makes up for the freak Japanese defeat
• As has been evident through the first two games, Senegal have world class talent in a handful of players but the rest are a huge liability. The biggest being their GK Khadim N'Diaye
• Colombia have found the net 2+ times in 5 of their last 7 games at the World Cup
• Senegal know that a draw is enough to send them through to the knockout round but unfortunately for them we don’t think they have discipline or personel to hold Colombia at bay. Expect the South Americans to get the job done here in what looks like a huge mismatch

this was my initial analysis of the game....but honestly, Ive looked more into things going forward in the tourney, Sengal play fearless. They'd be a much worse match up for England than Colombia would be, or Japan. Theres so much value on the Senegal ML and I see so much steam on Colombia ML, rightfully so. But these games are so tough. Im siding with GOALS in this match. BTTS but somebody is going to win. 

Good luck vaas, with you on poland

maybe you’re right, Tunisia is the game that nobody cares and little volume involve in this game so far, so maybe I will add thag later on , let’s see

For fun.... 

lewandowski FIRST GS +387

Lewandowski still sucks lol. 

Poland up. Need over 2.5. Parlay

Just noticed we're on the same side with Poland and Tunisia, lets get it Vaas

Thanks guys. Good day today. Shouldn’t have buckled on the Colombia ml. First time I’ve switched this tournament and it bit me.

already have a play for Russia/Spain. Will wait to post my reasoning but it’s BTTS. May go back to the well on spain win and BTTS