World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

congratulations to the winner of the 2014 FIFA World Cup!

Germany

Sure hope the Dutch come to play!! 4 years is a long time for redemption!!

They have this !!

Actually - they got rid of the golden goal - because they found that nobody would go for the golden goal.

When there was sudden death - there was a such a risk to go forward that teams would just defend and pass it around in the defense.  They wanted to discourage that - so they made it a full 30 minutes which encourages riskier play.

Thanks everyone for the comments - been travelling for the last couple of days and just getting back to the thread...

Working on write-ups now.

Updated Record after the Quarterfinals....

Game Bets:

22.5 - 27.5

-8.84 units

Futures:

-6.5 units

The WC has not been very good to me.  Thanks for those that have commented that my analysis has helped in some way - but losing money intelligently isn't as good as winning money like a moron.  That being said - sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.  This WC is clearly going to be a loser for me.  But its only 2 more years until the Euros....

Germany / Brazil - Germany to advance -110 (3 units) - Germany came out and surprised me against France.  When I saw their line up an hour before kick off - I was nervous.  They benched Mertesacker and moved Lahm back to defense from midfield where he had been playing - and started Klose - who in the end had little impact but drew away defenders from the real problem which is the rotating German midfield.  And pretty much - that is where Germany beat France - although I have to say after watching the game 3 full times I am confused and disappointed with the French effort - and most of all - the inability to come up with a plan B.  I feel ripped off - like I didn't get my money's worth from a team that I really thought could pull it off apparently more than they did.

So by now - these lines and these games become more and more predictable.  Kind of like the NFL playoffs - by the Championship games and SB - you kind of know what you are going to get and what the line should be - so its tough to get real value in the line - I look more for tactical edges.  And for all of the known over-publicized over-hyped reasons - I like Germany - and acknowledge that it is not very insightful to say that Neymar and Thiago Silva being out is a huge deal, and that Brazil has looked lost, and Germany pretty much the opposite.  But that is the truth, and I just don't see how overanalyzing this game does any good.

Brazil still has been tough to break down - but the chances have been there - and against Colombia I saw panic in the last 20 minutes.  A brazil collapse with a 2 goal lead would be unheard of - but they almost pulled it off - not because of talent or anything else physical - but they was an instant panic and the smell of death after the 70th minute.  I am convinced that if the game were 10 minutes longer - we would have seen a Colombia goal.  And Brazil have not played well with the lead all tournament - they never have looked comfortable.  This for me is the exact opposite in Germany - who against the US and against France just never broke form - yes they had issues with Ghana but I look at these two teams and there is no question who I would rather have with a lead.

Dante will come in for Thiago - which in all honesty is not a big dropoff - the guy starts for Bayern and would probably start on the other 31 teams in the WC.  But the Neymar thing is a big deal.  We have seen over an over WC sides that lack a creative midfield presence - like a basketball team without a point guard who can dribble and dish - who just pass around the perimeter until the shot clock winds down and launch a shot.  France against Germany, Belgium against Argentina - just to name a few recent examples.  Who takes over this role for Brazil?  Neymar led the WC is setting up quality chances for teammates - and he himself had 18 shots on goal and 4 goals.  Does Oscar suddenly become this guy?  I don't know.  But I do see this as a major tactical issue - Brazil is not a long ball type of team - and I just see the Germans playing with the same defense they played against France and clogging the middle and daring Brazil to beat them wide and with dribbling.

On the other hand Germany have plenty of playmakers - and most surprisingly for me - has been the importance of their fullbacks in the offense.  Hummels has been really solid - and Lahm gets up and makes a difference in the offense.  But Germany just aren't going to change much - because they think (and rightfully so) that they can beat just about anyone playing with seemingly everyone at the same position in the same mold - it really looks like there are 8 midfielders out there at any given time with an open pass or two men making a defender have to make a decision on which to cover.  It just happens over and over with this team.

You can argue home field - or ref bias (which is ironic that the ref allowing the game to get totally out of control is the reason Neymar is out) - but when you review the 5 games each of these teams have played so far - I find it very hard to make a case for Brazil.  Predicted final score Germany 2 Brazil 0.

Great write-up and analysis as usual, Van... I'm with you on Germany.     I liked the earlier move to put Klose as the striker in the French game,  and hope Loew puts the pressure on again..

Let's end this WC on a positive note.. We have four more games to get some cash.