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World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

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Posted: #301
Quote Originally Posted by LONKJON:

sweet pakalolo ...

everyone seems on Germany ...




 
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Posted: #302
I think Brassiere finds a way.
 
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Posted: #303
Thank you for your write ups and for all the time and effort you put into them. Very much appreciated, good Sir. 
 
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Posted: #304
Vanzack what do you think of my draw, 0-0 mini system.  Did you see the thread?  Up over 50 units for the tourney
 
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Posted: #305
Great write-up, vanzack. I think your completely right. Germany has simply more quality and they seem ready in this tournament. In my opinion, this match against france was deciding. I expected Germany to travel back home. But löw made adjustments and they looked so good against france.
If you go down with this pick, I will go down with you. But I think you will win this one. GL and thanks for the time you put in your write-ups.

 
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Posted: #306
Thanks Van ... Good Luck!

 
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Posted: #307
Wow Wow Wow
 
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Posted: #308
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Let me say why I like Germany and Argentina.

Germany is playing a team that had a lot of heart but little chemistry. They barely beat Chile and then hung on against Colombia only to lose two of their stars in the process. Now that Brazil is depleted are we to believe that they will magically rally around each other, find the chemistry they were lacking and play their best ball against a German team that is better than any team they have faced thus far? Being a slight underdog might take some of the pressure off of this Brazil team, but not much. This is still Brazil and they will be expected to win. Hence, the injury and the suspension are not so much a rallying cry as they are the straw that broke the camel's back. From this vantage point, Germany to qualify is better than a 50/50 proposition.  

 
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Posted: #309
 
Captain
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Posted: #310
I'm not watching (work), but took a flier on over 9.5 (-10000) bought the hook.

What's the score? 
 
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Posted: #311
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

I'm not watching (work), but took a flier on over 9.5 (-10000) bought the hook.

What's the score? 

Sorry, that's (+10000).
 
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Posted: #312

Well, that was strange...

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Posted: #313

Quote Originally Posted by LuckyLuke:

Vanzack what do you think of my draw, 0-0 mini system.  Did you see the thread?  Up over 50 units for the tourney

I have been watching it.

I always do this analysis for the major European leagues - because it makes sense to me that draws should be underpriced - just because betting a draw goes against human nature to take a side.  But I have found that the draw has been pretty fairly priced - and last season in England would have lost money because there were a lower number of draws than usual.

But I would think for WC you are really on to something...

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Posted: #314

Thanks everyone else for the comments. 

Hopefully the write-ups and analysis have helped in some way.

 

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Posted: #315
So Van, do you still think Argentina still have some tricks up their sleeves to win against germany?
 
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Posted: #316
I literally had to look at my ipad twice immediately after seeing the score at the 30th minute. I guess Neymar would help them hold the ball for longer stretches and Tiago Silva to have some speed on defense. Without either they looked like Cameroon.
 
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Posted: #317

Argentina / Netherlands - Netherlands to advance +128 (1 unit) - Just a small play on the Netherlands here as I cant really come up with a reason to see why either of these sides are favored.  Just see it as a dead PK - with one or two big plays deciding it.

Whoever wins this will have a real tough time with Germany and should consider themselves lucky to have been on this side of the bracket.

Predicted final score 1-1 after 90, and from then who knows.

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Posted: #318
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Argentina / Netherlands - Netherlands to advance +128 (1 unit) - Just a small play on the Netherlands here as I cant really come up with a reason to see why either of these sides are favored.  Just see it as a dead PK - with one or two big plays deciding it.

Whoever wins this will have a real tough time with Germany and should consider themselves lucky to have been on this side of the bracket.

Predicted final score 1-1 after 90, and from then who knows.


Vanz, your write-ups have been helpful, even when they lost. They gave the rest of us an understanding of why someone might back team A, as opposed to team B. They did this by presenting a powerful, cogent argument based on tactics, lineups, a team's current form, etc... In other words, reading your posts helped us clarify our own positions (either by bolstering them) or by helping us form a counter argument based on factors you may have overlooked or not considered in formulating your argument. I'm going to use your argument above (though it is not much of an argument, which is itself telling) to illustrate my point. Although you picked Argentina to win this thing, you have, over the past two weeks continually faded them. First against the Swiss, then against Belgium, and now against the Dutch. In your "write-up" you say you don't even understand why Argentina is favored here. All this leads me to conclude that there is some psychological bias here against Argentina. Perhaps you were disappointed, even disgusted, by this team's play for most of the tournament; all the talent in the world and yet they were barely scraping by, all the while looking for Messi to save them (I don't blame you). But if you were being truly objective here you could easily rattle off 3 or 4 reasons why Argentina are favored:

1) Home field/crowd (which is, or can be, huge in these types of games, even if it wasn't for an undermanned Brazil)

2) Fatigue. The Dutch just won a game on penalty kicks, and until Brazil beat Colombia, no team had won their next game after winning on penalty kicks. Brazil had 5-6 days of rest while the Dutch have 3-4.

3) Messi. Argentina has the best player in the world, at the prime of his career, trying to cement his name in the history/record books, while winning a WC for his country. 

4) Argentina might get the better of the officiating as the only South American team left standing.

Only if this game was being played at a neutral site should Argentina not be favored, though I might even disagree with that (because of reasons 2 and 3). 

Anyway, just wanted to put that out there. Best of luck, but I'm hopping for an Argentina/Germany final: or the greatness of man/Messi against the greatness of team/machine, Germany.
 
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Posted: #319
My oh my, what we saw today will live in World Cup infamy for all time.

I had to check a few times to make sure my playstation wasn't on.

I love the Dutch to advance. As we were shown today, at this level teams that play as a unit tend to win. I think Holland is the more cohesive side and the bulk of this team knows what it takes to get to the final.

Good luck all, and thanks for the writeups, Van.
 
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Posted: #320
netherlands to advance good luck van
 
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Posted: #321
Great points BB, with us NBA cappers leaning heavily on #4.

This is the biggest sporting event on the biggest stage in the world. To not have a South American team in the final would be salt on the wound after the unforgettable disgrace yesterday.

I believe Germany had to win by 2/3 goals to ensure Brazil would not get favorable late officiating (as they got in previous games). Germany clearly understood this and crushed them as early as anyone thought possible, disallowing a late penalty kick or R/Y card to derail them.

But not only is #4 on your side if you take Argentina, but #1, #2, #3 bolster that side more than sufficiently, especially at these odds.

Argentina to advance for me at what is somewhat disappointing -140 negative money but I am paying the public premium for the megastar and overall talent (and yes psychological bias is an astute observation as well). I think Van's ARG futures bet makes it another round.
 
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Posted: #322
Scal now that you are here I'd love to get your thoughts on my mother of national embarrassments angle regarding the third place game for Brazil. The same goes for you Vanz would love to hear your thoughts. I created a thread about it but have not given all my thoughts yet. In short though I don't think the Brazilian people want to see one more goal scored on them, its like reliving a rape, even in an exhibition type game. And they certainly can't quit, for fear of opening the door to another embarrassment and bringing back memories of the semi.
 
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Posted: #323
Like you would think BB, I'd absolutely take Brazil straight up vs. either team, no questions asked. They are likely to possibly be positive money +.5 goals after that incredible debacle which avoids the draw and that is a good price for a host nation (if they are negative money, I'll eat some of that price).

They gave up at the 25th minute yesterday. Are they going to give up another entire game too, as a host nation?

Are they good enough to beat either prospective team in general before the Germany game? No.

But this was the ultimate LawONE, which occurred, not only on their home turf, but in front of....BILLIONS....

Give me Brazil all day, every day and let LawONE reign supreme.
 
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Posted: #324
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Like you would think BB, I'd absolutely take Brazil straight up vs. either team, no questions asked. They are likely to possibly be positive money +.5 goals after that incredible debacle which avoids the draw and that is a good price for a host nation (if they are negative money, I'll eat some of that price).

They gave up at the 25th minute yesterday. Are they going to give up another entire game too, as a host nation?

Are they good enough to beat either prospective team in general before the Germany game? No.

But this was the ultimate LawONE, which occurred, not only on their home turf, but in front of....BILLIONS....

Give me Brazil all day, every day and let LawONE reign supreme.

I'm no soccer expert by any stretch, but I don't think there's a chance in hell they'd be +0.5 at plus odds. That would put them as a gigantic straight up dog. Not possible. 

If I'm wrong I will absolutely be back to admit it, but 7-1 or not, can't fathom it. 
 
 
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Posted: #325
If you are that far off on a line, you probably shouldn't be betting on the sport.
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