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A conference a day (NCAAF results using Morrison's NFL system)

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:

Don't believe so
Up to you if you want to take the hook
I usually do on spreads to get that extra edge

Thanks Mon
GL
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:

No problem man.......
Thanks for the insight and having all of us prosper from your mistakes and hard work

  LOL, not my mistakes.  Just those bad teams have cost a lot of people some units over the past 24 years.  I only backtracked the JM system for NCAA earlier this summer and that is what I discovered.  I accepted your friend request.  Please send me the info.  Thanks!

BTW, FLORIDA STATE won another game for us.... 

Series is now 8-0. 
 
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Posted: #103

yet another win... did anyone bet on UTEP last night?

 

rich allen gave us a play.... and it paid off!!

 

good luck this weekend!

 
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Posted: #104

Max,

you playing all of those games you listed there?

 
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Posted: #105

What have you got for Sunday's games. 

 Looks like the Jets - ML to me.  Any thoughts or reasons not to?

 
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Posted: #106
Assphalt, I one buy up to a full point in your favor.  Most times, college games do not matter.  For large spreads, don't buy them.  For small ones, like +2, +2.5, +6.5, buy upward.  If you have a +1, you can play the ML for more.  If playing the favorites, if you can afford the juice, play the ML for anything less than -10...  Otherwise, if you have -3.5, -7.5, type numbers, buy down. 
 
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Posted: #107
Haha...... Find the flaws while on the sidelines and then attack learning from others F'ups.......... Smart.........

That's a good answer Kangy
Key #'s are keen to buy the hook but larger spreads don't have as much value but that doesn't guarantee us losing by a .5 of a point.
   I'll be so mad (when not if) that happens

As long as the rest of the chase doesn't fail it would be cool




Kmang......
Yes I look to now - was on the sidelines before
Missed that Fla St. play last night -
Up to Kangy if he wants to add those other plays each week that I posted earlier for this week
He's going to work on them to make sure they fit his standards
I stand by them from where I got them from but again this is his show
I though I just add some sprinkles to the icing



Kohler..........
Yes Nyj is a ML play.............
Watch out though I lost 40 units on Phi ML last week alone against Oak
This isn't a strong match up for Nyj - could go either way
There are other plays but from what I see the NFL version isn't as strong in my opinion as the college version.
Don't want to disrespect Kangy in his thread by posting other plays following similar parameters - unethical


 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Assphalt, I one buy up to a full point in your favor.  Most times, college games do not matter.  For large spreads, don't buy them.  For small ones, like +2, +2.5, +6.5, buy upward.  If you have a +1, you can play the ML for more.  If playing the favorites, if you can afford the juice, play the ML for anything less than -10...  Otherwise, if you have -3.5, -7.5, type numbers, buy down. 

Thanks Kangy, did you guys win Fl. St. bet or did it go to B bet? I didn't know they played collage FB on Thur. nights so I missed that one.
my book is showing OFF for UNLV on the money line, does that mean there not offering that or has it not came out with the odds yet.

Thanks Deb
 
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Posted: #109
Week 7 wrap....

Florida State +2.5 [A] - WIN
Hawai'i +24 [A] - LOSS
Illinois +10.5 [B] - WIN
Nevada-Las Vegas ML [A] - WIN

Totals so far this year
Individual.... 10-5
Series........ 10-0 (1 pending)


Assphalt, yes, the Florida State game was a winner.
 
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Posted: #110
Great stuff Kangy with your card.............
Were you able to follow up with that info I have sent you?
Below here are the results from what I posted earlier following somebody else elsewhere

FINAL RESULTS

PLAY THE LOSERS (5-2)
GAME 2 -- 2.3* Illinois +10.5 vs Purdue -- WINNER
GAME 2 -- 2.1* Eastern Michigan +3.5 vs Ball State -- WINNER
GAME 2 -- 2.1* UNLV ML (-115) vs New Mexico -- WINNER
GAME 1 -- 1* Florida State +2.5 vs North Carolina -- WINNER
GAME 1 -- 1* UCLA +9 vs Arizona -- LOSER
GAME 1 -- 1* Vanderbilt +12 vs South Carolina -- WINNER
GAME 1 -- 1* Hawaii +24 vs Boise State -- LOSER

FADE THE WINNERS (4-4)
GAME 3 -- 2.65* Nevada ML (-625) vs Idaho -- WINNER
GAME 2 -- 2.6* Virginia +4.5 vs Georgia Tech -- LOSER
GAME 2 -- 2.1* North Texas +20.5 vs Troy -- LOSER
GAME 2 -- 2.1* Washington +7.5 vs Oregon -- LOSER
GAME 1 -- 1* Clemson +6.5 vs Miami-FL -- WINNER
GAME 1 -- 1* Kent State +10 vs Ohio -- WINNER
GAME 1 -- 1* Michigan +4.5 vs Penn State -- LOSER
GAME 1 -- 1* Kentucky ML (-600) vs La-Monroe -- WINNER
-------------------------------------------------
PLAY THE LOSERS RECORD (13-0, +13.0)
GM 1 -- 7-7 (Hawaii pending)
GM 2 -- 6-0
GM 3

FADE THE WINNERS RECORD (18-0, +18.0)
GM 1 -- 15-6
GM 2 -- 2-3-1
GM 3 -- 1-0


 
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Posted: #111
10/31 [B] Hawaii over Nevada Wolf Pack [Lines not out]
 
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Posted: #112

kangy, is this what u have for this week?

hawaii  (b)

auburn (a)

mizzu (a)

n.c. state (a)

tulane (a)

ucla (a)

western kentucky (a)

??????

 
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Posted: #113
I don't want to answer for Kangy but I know hes a busy Guy according to my records they are all A bet plays and Hawaii is our only B bets play.

7 NCAA Bets
 
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Posted: #114
Crane, you are close.  I am filtering out Tulane due to the 75-point SU losses rule and that team is not a progression team this week.  I have also filtered out Rice for the same reason, and also due to it being 5 games below .500 SU.  See the section in my blog for details on the filtering criteria.  I just do not like these teams at this time. 

So I have the following for week 9 (Sorry, somehow I got my week numbers mixed up).....


Hawai'i (no line yet) [B]

Auburn +3.5 [A] - Progression team + no filters = larger play

Missouri ML [A] - No filters, straight play

North Carolina State +9.5 [A] - Idle last week, no filters, straight play.  Try to grab it at 10 or 10.5

UCLA +10 [A] - Filtered last week, unfiltered this week, ATS margin in last game warrants this being a play this week.  Try to get it at 10.5

Western Kentucky +11 [A] -  No filters, straight play.  No points necessary unless you wish to wait to see what the line does.



Filtered teams to watch for next week:

Rice - Meets the 5 game below .500 and 75-point SU losses criteria.  Non-progression team.  Will need to watch for next week.

Tulane - Meets the 75-point SU losses criteria.  Non-progression team.  Will need to watch for next week.


Previously filtered teams (Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt) are taken off the board.  They both covered last week, but we lose that opportunity.  C'est la vie.  It happens.  If I had a dollar for every time I didn't play a game that ended up winning, I'd be a millionaire. 

 
 
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Posted: #115

Thanks Kangy....love this system and appreciate all of the hard work you are doing here by researching the filters. 

Unfortunately, I cancelled out my winnings last week by throwing some money on the "Fade the Winners" plays too.  Its amazing how when you get too cute you can turn a winning week into a losing one....I am thinking for this week at least, I am going to remain monogamous. 

 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Crane, you are close.  I am filtering out Tulane due to the 75-point SU losses rule and that team is not a progression team this week.  I have also filtered out Rice for the same reason, and also due to it being 5 games below .500 SU.  See the section in my blog for details on the filtering criteria.  I just do not like these teams at this time. 

So I have the following for week 9 (Sorry, somehow I got my week numbers mixed up).....


Hawai'i (no line yet) [B]

Auburn +3.5 [A] - Progression team + no filters = larger play

Missouri ML [A] - No filters, straight play

North Carolina State +9.5 [A] - Idle last week, no filters, straight play.  Try to grab it at 10 or 10.5

UCLA +10 [A] - Filtered last week, unfiltered this week, ATS margin in last game warrants this being a play this week.  Try to get it at 10.5

Western Kentucky +11 [A] -  No filters, straight play.  No points necessary unless you wish to wait to see what the line does.



Filtered teams to watch for next week:

Rice - Meets the 5 game below .500 and 75-point SU losses criteria.  Non-progression team.  Will need to watch for next week.

Tulane - Meets the 75-point SU losses criteria.  Non-progression team.  Will need to watch for next week.


Previously filtered teams (Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt) are taken off the board.  They both covered last week, but we lose that opportunity.  C'est la vie.  It happens.  If I had a dollar for every time I didn't play a game that ended up winning, I'd be a millionaire. 

 



 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:

Thanks Kangy....love this system and appreciate all of the hard work you are doing here by researching the filters. 

Unfortunately, I cancelled out my winnings last week by throwing some money on the "Fade the Winners" plays too.  Its amazing how when you get too cute you can turn a winning week into a losing one....I am thinking for this week at least, I am going to remain monogamous. 





Bummer yo........
That by itself seems solid so if you still feel queasy just chase out whatever you lost.
You'll get it back its cool - then you're caught up
Up to Kangy if he wants me to throw those other plays in too
Don't want to diss his thread
I'll PM you with where you can find those plays
 
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Posted: #118

kangy, thanks for the input

i dont post alot (due to work) but read your thread everyday and really appreciate all the effort you put into helping others like me. lord knows i can use all the help i can get lol!!! . also Kevin2565 thanks for your responce too . now lets make some more cash.   

 
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Posted: #119
Hey Montana, if you wouldn't mind, could you start an additional thread with that system?  Not saying anything is bad, plus it will give me another thread to follow.  Just that I know from back testing the "play the losers" scenario that there could be some losses in there.  I would also think there would be more losers in the "fade the winners" depending on who you play. 

Last year playing the "play the losers" went 23-2....  I am cautious about the "fade the winners" because usually great teams, continue to win.  If you could backtest the "fade the winners" system for last year, that would be cool.  Haven't had the time to do that yet. 

Also, looks fishy when you fade a winner and the winner is a dog... Seems like the ML can get a little out of whack (See Nevada and Kentucky in your example).  However, I believe we get more value by betting a loser to win on the ML than betting against a winner to lose on the ML. 

Oh and yes, you are welcome in my thread anytime. 
 
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Posted: #120

Kangy, what's going on? I 've been following the past couple of weeks and I too appreciate the work you put into this.

It seems the system is doing pretty well w/ the NFL as well except for the Titans which I think get it done this week.

 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Hey Montana, if you wouldn't mind, could you start an additional thread with that system?  Not saying anything is bad, plus it will give me another thread to follow.  Just that I know from back testing the "play the losers" scenario that there could be some losses in there.  I would also think there would be more losers in the "fade the winners" depending on who you play. 

Last year playing the "play the losers" went 23-2....  I am cautious about the "fade the winners" because usually great teams, continue to win.  If you could backtest the "fade the winners" system for last year, that would be cool.  Haven't had the time to do that yet. 

Also, looks fishy when you fade a winner and the winner is a dog... Seems like the ML can get a little out of whack (See Nevada and Kentucky in your example).  However, I believe we get more value by betting a loser to win on the ML than betting against a winner to lose on the ML. 

Oh and yes, you are welcome in my thread anytime. 





Don't have the accessibility or time to back test the Fade The Winners version
Don't mind doing a separate thread with it but it would be just copying from another thread elsewhere and I kind of feel that would be cheap and unethical to do from the other guy putting in the work
Well at least we know where to find it
I will continue to play them
If anyone is interested just PM me and I show ya where
 
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Posted: #122
Kinda shaky about making that Nevada B bet. There quarterback is pretty sick and against a team like Hawaii. 

But then again the systems been rock solid so far why question it now.
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by kevin2565:

Kinda shaky about making that Nevada B bet. There quarterback is pretty sick and against a team like Hawaii. 

But then again the systems been rock solid so far why question it now.
?? Am I wrong, I thought the bet is Hawaii,not Nevada? Or am I not understanding this?
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by ketut:

?? Am I wrong, I thought the bet is Hawaii,not Nevada? Or am I not understanding this?

That's what I got, Hawaii is bet B, one of my books is offering +27.5 and one is offering +28 if I got it right I go with +27.5 and don't buy any points
 
 
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Posted: #125

Awesome day for the system so far. I count 3-0:

NC State +10 (WINNER!)

Auburn +5.5 (WINNER!)

Mizzou ML (WINNER!)

UCLA +10 (Pending)

Western Kentucky +13.5 (Pending)

Hawaii +29 (Pending)

Thanks Kangy.

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