Don't chase system for MLB

All pairs were winners, we cleared out that nasty line and even made $10 to boot!  Bank = 2207.75

This is a good example of not hitting the % we should hit in a series and still come out with no damage. This little stretch the pairs were 10-3 for a win % of 77. Historically the % is 85. We had been on a streak of a higher win % so this just brings the overall % back in line.  Line resets to:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10 and tomorrow's bets are 20.

Let's recap what's happened since we started:

We're up 10% on our bank in 15 days.  We are 56-7 in our matched pairs running at a 89% win rate which is higher than the norm. It remains to be seen if we are going to revert to the mean or if we can continue to avoid some of the land mines.

All playable matched pairs from 4/25 to date are 141-28 or an 83% win rate so we are doing something right by having a better win %. Now if I can only figure out what it is. Any ideas?

I'm going to do something different today.

I can get a RL on both PHI and COL at different books so I'm going to take it. Coors Field produces a lot of runs.

PHI RL +150  20/30   COL RL +175  20/35

WAS +135  20/27  NYM RL +145  20/29

MIL +105  30/31.5     ATL RL parlayed to the over 8.5 +100  20/72

TOR  +165 20/33  BOS RL +105  20/21 

3 winners and a loser so the line goes to:

20-10-10-10-10-10-10-20   Bets for tomorrow are 40.

Bank = 2226.75

6 plays today:

TOR +150  40/60   BOS RL +125  40/50

NYY RL +115  40/46   DET +130  40/52

SD  +140  40/56   SF RL +145  40/58

LAD  +145  40/58  AZ RL +125  40/50

CIN RL +125  40/50  PIT  +120  40/48

Again I'm able to get two RL on the same game on the two teams so I'm going to take it..  CLE RL +150  40/60  KC RL +175 40/70

We swept the board tonite (5-0) so line resets.

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

Bank = 2300.75

Need to get this one in early, a little different

PIT RL +170 parlayed to the over +100  20/88   CIN +105  40/42

Deviated a little from the norm but both pitchers put runners on base so good chance if the RL covers it will go over. Early game, back with more.

Other early games:

WAS +160  20/32  NYM RL +115  20/23

HOU +165   20/33  STL RL + 115  20/23

TOR RL +150  20/30  BOS RL +170  20/34  different books have different RL's. I love these when they're split especially in the AL.

Game #1   NYY  RL +110  20/22     DET +135  20/27    (Vazquez vs. Porcello)

Tough loss on that TOR/BOS game.  Going to kick up the bet on next games because of that loss.

OAK +130  40/52   TEX RL +145  40/58

5-1 today on the pairs. Too bad BOS had to score 2 meaningless runs in the 9th.

Line has been reduced to:

10-10-10-10    

Small card tomorrow.  Bank = 2332.75

Early game:

SEA RL +130  20/26   BAL +120  20/24

3 more:

WAS +170  20/34   COL RL +105  25/26.25

HOU  +280 10/28  STL RL -160  25/15.60

OAK +180  20/36   TEX RL +105  25/26.25

3-1 today with the potential for a bonus. The WAS/COL game was cut short to 8 innings. We won the ML w/WAS and it's possible that the RL bet may be a no action and refunded as they are usually required to go the full game unlike the ML bet. We'll see. For bank purposes I'm not going to count it so we lost $29.  The line was cleared except for today's loss so the line looks like:

20-25   Bank = 2303.75

I'm going to make a matched pair to take care of this remnant and then the rest of the card will be on a new line of:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10