Thursday 5/16 system plays: REVISED (removed Colo as a play as they are a solid fave now
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
YTD 30-24, +25.88 units
All 2 units
Boston 127
System Plays
YTD 104-104, +25.29 units
Boston 127
Mil 134
ChiSox 124
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110
Thursday 5/16 system plays: REVISED (removed Colo as a play as they are a solid fave now
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
YTD 30-24, +25.88 units
All 2 units
Boston 127
System Plays
YTD 104-104, +25.29 units
Boston 127
Mil 134
ChiSox 124
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110
Seems like the Consensus number is often quite different than what you can get at Stations or William Hill. If I had my choice I'd pick Stations because that's where I bet (I'm selfish like that), but using any I think is fine versus Consensus. Too bad Cantor is not available. Or is it?
Seems like the Consensus number is often quite different than what you can get at Stations or William Hill. If I had my choice I'd pick Stations because that's where I bet (I'm selfish like that), but using any I think is fine versus Consensus. Too bad Cantor is not available. Or is it?
I agree we should keep it as true top starters in Tier A. I just wanted to confirm. Doesn't make sense to eliminate a play if a spot starter or reliever turned starter is going.
Thanks for the revised sheet with Station odds.
This has been a fun experiment so far. This thread has made me realize there is a lot of Sabermetric handicapping I must learn.
I agree we should keep it as true top starters in Tier A. I just wanted to confirm. Doesn't make sense to eliminate a play if a spot starter or reliever turned starter is going.
Thanks for the revised sheet with Station odds.
This has been a fun experiment so far. This thread has made me realize there is a lot of Sabermetric handicapping I must learn.
This has been a fun experiment so far. This thread has made me realize there is a lot of Sabermetric handicapping I must learn.
This has been a fun experiment so far. This thread has made me realize there is a lot of Sabermetric handicapping I must learn.
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still
some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my
attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6
Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the
following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays
(DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that
already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the
two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying
system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score
(DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two
columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a
positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except
those two columns.
RRL Effective %
(>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage –
it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs
or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50%
of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want
to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s
65% or higher.
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still
some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my
attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6
Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the
following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays
(DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that
already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the
two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying
system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score
(DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two
columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a
positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except
those two columns.
RRL Effective %
(>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage –
it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs
or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50%
of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want
to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s
65% or higher.
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6 Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays (DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score (DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except those two columns.
RRL Effective % (>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage – it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50% of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s 65% or higher.
That was much better than my attempt.
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6 Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays (DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score (DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except those two columns.
RRL Effective % (>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage – it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50% of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s 65% or higher.
That was much better than my attempt.
RRL Effective %
(>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage –
it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs
or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50%
of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want
to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s
65% or higher.
RRL Effective %
(>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage –
it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs
or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50%
of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want
to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s
65% or higher.
Thursday 5/16 results
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
1-0, +2.54 units
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Boston 127 WIN
System Plays
2-2, +.41 units
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Boston 127 WIN
Mil 134 Loss
ChiSox 124 WIN
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110 Loss
Thursday 5/16 results
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
1-0, +2.54 units
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Boston 127 WIN
System Plays
2-2, +.41 units
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Boston 127 WIN
Mil 134 Loss
ChiSox 124 WIN
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110 Loss
Thursday 5/16 results
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
1-0, +2.54 units
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Boston 127 WIN
System Plays
2-2, +.41 units
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Boston 127 WIN
Mil 134 Loss
<CHW +124 WIN | CWS +202 RRL LOSS>
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110 Loss
Thursday 5/16 results
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
1-0, +2.54 units
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Boston 127 WIN
System Plays
2-2, +.41 units
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Boston 127 WIN
Mil 134 Loss
<CHW +124 WIN | CWS +202 RRL LOSS>
Det/Tex Under 7.5 -110 Loss
DG, Danrules24,
Yes! as you can see a 'troll' has entered the thread with clear intentions of "disruptive behaviour" to seek the recognition he so rightly does not deserve. nothing new, their transparent commentary is based soley on their inexperience to comprehend the thread (which clearly speaks for itself amongs those who are contrubuting on a daily basis, and have the understanding of the daily leans it produces, and the winning edge it has brought to dog play) I will continue to track the Dog EFF/RRL and post the results as presribed. btw don't the result come "after the fac"t, I thought so, we'll continue to pursue the attachment of the RRL connected to the production of the Dog EFF system, you reprimand a self imposed 'troll' by putting them in their place, and exposing them for what they really are; their intentions are recognized by having absolutely no contribution to the thread itself, other than making whim commentary to gain attention and create negative controversey,based on their own shortcomings, and immaturity to sports betting in general..any further commentary by RCD will simply be ignored, and subsquently sent to the trash bin; case closed..the thread is working on all cylinders, let keep it thant way..good work Danrules24,I agree this thread is fun, lets keep that way, DG have you yet to compile the data on season RRL % and the attached variables, this will give you the cut, bringing the capp into situational play, and the final step. my best
DG, Danrules24,
Yes! as you can see a 'troll' has entered the thread with clear intentions of "disruptive behaviour" to seek the recognition he so rightly does not deserve. nothing new, their transparent commentary is based soley on their inexperience to comprehend the thread (which clearly speaks for itself amongs those who are contrubuting on a daily basis, and have the understanding of the daily leans it produces, and the winning edge it has brought to dog play) I will continue to track the Dog EFF/RRL and post the results as presribed. btw don't the result come "after the fac"t, I thought so, we'll continue to pursue the attachment of the RRL connected to the production of the Dog EFF system, you reprimand a self imposed 'troll' by putting them in their place, and exposing them for what they really are; their intentions are recognized by having absolutely no contribution to the thread itself, other than making whim commentary to gain attention and create negative controversey,based on their own shortcomings, and immaturity to sports betting in general..any further commentary by RCD will simply be ignored, and subsquently sent to the trash bin; case closed..the thread is working on all cylinders, let keep it thant way..good work Danrules24,I agree this thread is fun, lets keep that way, DG have you yet to compile the data on season RRL % and the attached variables, this will give you the cut, bringing the capp into situational play, and the final step. my best
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6 Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays (DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score (DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except those two columns.
RRL Effective % (>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage – it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50% of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s 65% or higher.
I know DanRules already summarized this but there is still some confusion on what systems are being tracked in this thread – so here is my attempt at clarification.
System Plays:
Low Scoring Underdog, Divisional Underdog, Underdogs <= 6 Hits, MLB Underdog System, and Under Bet System
These plays are based off of the systems outlined on the following website: https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/
And are displayed in columns K through R
Dog Efficiency Plays (DOG EFF):
The DOG EFF system looks at those dogs that already qualify for a System Play as described above. The added filter is the two columns marked as Overall Dog Eff and Using Odds Dog Eff. If a qualifying system play has a score of .400 or better in BOTH columns then it is a DOG EFF system play.
Dog Effective Score (DOG EFF SCR):
The DOG EFF SCORE system only looks at the last two columns. We look at ALL games for the day and are looking for a dog with a positve score playing a fave with a negative score. Nothing else matters for this system except those two columns.
RRL Effective % (>=2 RRL)
This is just a percentage – it looks at all the times that team WON as a DOG- it’s the % of time that the team won by 2 runs or more – so if .500 means that of all the times this team WON as a DOG – 50% of the time they won by 2 runs or more.
You can use this as a decision maker to DECIDE if YOU want to bet the RRL instead of betting the ML. Personally, I consider a RRL wager if it’s 65% or higher.
DG, Danrules24,
Yes! as you can see a 'troll' has entered the thread with clear intentions of "disruptive behaviour" to seek the recognition he so rightly does not deserve. nothing new, their transparent commentary is based soley on their inexperience to comprehend the thread (which clearly speaks for itself amongs those who are contrubuting on a daily basis, and have the understanding of the daily leans it produces, and the winning edge it has brought to dog play) I will continue to track the Dog EFF/RRL and post the results as presribed. btw don't the result come "after the fac"t, I thought so, we'll continue to pursue the attachment of the RRL connected to the production of the Dog EFF system, you reprimand a self imposed 'troll' by putting them in their place, and exposing them for what they really are; their intentions are recognized by having absolutely no contribution to the thread itself, other than making whim commentary to gain attention and create negative controversey,based on their own shortcomings, and immaturity to sports betting in general..any further commentary by RCD will simply be ignored, and subsquently sent to the trash bin; case closed..the thread is working on all cylinders, let keep it thant way..good work Danrules24,I agree this thread is fun, lets keep that way, DG have you yet to compile the data on season RRL % and the attached variables, this will give you the cut, bringing the capp into situational play, and the final step. my best
DG, Danrules24,
Yes! as you can see a 'troll' has entered the thread with clear intentions of "disruptive behaviour" to seek the recognition he so rightly does not deserve. nothing new, their transparent commentary is based soley on their inexperience to comprehend the thread (which clearly speaks for itself amongs those who are contrubuting on a daily basis, and have the understanding of the daily leans it produces, and the winning edge it has brought to dog play) I will continue to track the Dog EFF/RRL and post the results as presribed. btw don't the result come "after the fac"t, I thought so, we'll continue to pursue the attachment of the RRL connected to the production of the Dog EFF system, you reprimand a self imposed 'troll' by putting them in their place, and exposing them for what they really are; their intentions are recognized by having absolutely no contribution to the thread itself, other than making whim commentary to gain attention and create negative controversey,based on their own shortcomings, and immaturity to sports betting in general..any further commentary by RCD will simply be ignored, and subsquently sent to the trash bin; case closed..the thread is working on all cylinders, let keep it thant way..good work Danrules24,I agree this thread is fun, lets keep that way, DG have you yet to compile the data on season RRL % and the attached variables, this will give you the cut, bringing the capp into situational play, and the final step. my best
Friday 5/17 system plays:
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Sea 145
System Plays
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Sea 145
TB 100
Tor 145
ChiSox 105
LAD 130
SF/Colo Under 9.5 -110
Friday 5/17 system plays:
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
YTD 31-24, +28.42 units
All 2 units
Sea 145
System Plays
YTD 106-106, +25.70 units
Sea 145
TB 100
Tor 145
ChiSox 105
LAD 130
SF/Colo Under 9.5 -110
Just a side note. Let's try and keep this thread on topic of picking dog winners, please. This will be my last comment on the matter...
Now, I don't personally know S_N, but I can tell you guys this, I've seen his posts on picks for both football and baseball and he handicaps games in a way that hurts my head thinking about it. From what I can tell, he does so by looking at numerous data points and then carefully makes his picks. I've seen him post toward the latter parts of the season once there has been a wealth of data. His picks have been fantastic and I do not question his handicapping. If we are fortunate enough to see him post picks later in the season, I would suggest playing them using your own money management system.
As far as the RRL, I have no idea how he determines his picks. He has his methods that he has every right not to share. I believe he is posting his results to let everyone know that there is something there as far as finding value in the RRL picks. Do I wish he would post his plays prior to the games? Well of course, he has a great win rate. As mentioned, I think he is simply letting us know that there is something good here.
Using the spreadsheet Degen has come up with, there is a column on RRL which he has described in an earlier post. If a system play is .500 or better, that will be something to consider. Until I can figure out how to correctly determine how to pick RRL plays, I'm leaving it alone, not even going to speculate on the criteria used.
Ok, I'm done. Let's move on and please keep it civil.
Just a side note. Let's try and keep this thread on topic of picking dog winners, please. This will be my last comment on the matter...
Now, I don't personally know S_N, but I can tell you guys this, I've seen his posts on picks for both football and baseball and he handicaps games in a way that hurts my head thinking about it. From what I can tell, he does so by looking at numerous data points and then carefully makes his picks. I've seen him post toward the latter parts of the season once there has been a wealth of data. His picks have been fantastic and I do not question his handicapping. If we are fortunate enough to see him post picks later in the season, I would suggest playing them using your own money management system.
As far as the RRL, I have no idea how he determines his picks. He has his methods that he has every right not to share. I believe he is posting his results to let everyone know that there is something there as far as finding value in the RRL picks. Do I wish he would post his plays prior to the games? Well of course, he has a great win rate. As mentioned, I think he is simply letting us know that there is something good here.
Using the spreadsheet Degen has come up with, there is a column on RRL which he has described in an earlier post. If a system play is .500 or better, that will be something to consider. Until I can figure out how to correctly determine how to pick RRL plays, I'm leaving it alone, not even going to speculate on the criteria used.
Ok, I'm done. Let's move on and please keep it civil.
Systems & Strategies] Topic: Before you post your picks | |
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#1 Posted: 12/4/2009 6:20:39 AMThanks |
Systems & Strategies] Topic: Before you post your picks | |
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Covers Referee
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 38087
Location: Canada |
#1 Posted: 12/4/2009 6:20:39 AMThanks |
Friday 5/17 results:
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
0-1, - 2 units
YTD 31-25, +26.42 units
All 2 units
Sea 145 Loss
System Plays
2-4, -2.05 units
YTD 108-110, +23.65 units
Sea 145 Loss
TB 100 WIN
Tor 145 Loss
ChiSox 105 WIN
LAD 130 Loss
SF/Colo Under 9.5 -110 Loss
Friday 5/17 results:
Dog EFF Score
YTD 10-10, +2.34 units
No plays
Dog EFF
0-1, - 2 units
YTD 31-25, +26.42 units
All 2 units
Sea 145 Loss
System Plays
2-4, -2.05 units
YTD 108-110, +23.65 units
Sea 145 Loss
TB 100 WIN
Tor 145 Loss
ChiSox 105 WIN
LAD 130 Loss
SF/Colo Under 9.5 -110 Loss
Just a side note. Let's try and keep this thread on topic of picking dog winners, please. This will be my last comment on the matter...
Now, I don't personally know S_N, but I can tell you guys this, I've seen his posts on picks for both football and baseball and he handicaps games in a way that hurts my head thinking about it. From what I can tell, he does so by looking at numerous data points and then carefully makes his picks. I've seen him post toward the latter parts of the season once there has been a wealth of data. His picks have been fantastic and I do not question his handicapping. If we are fortunate enough to see him post picks later in the season, I would suggest playing them using your own money management system.
As far as the RRL, I have no idea how he determines his picks. He has his methods that he has every right not to share. I believe he is posting his results to let everyone know that there is something there as far as finding value in the RRL picks. Do I wish he would post his plays prior to the games? Well of course, he has a great win rate. As mentioned, I think he is simply letting us know that there is something good here.
Using the spreadsheet Degen has come up with, there is a column on RRL which he has described in an earlier post. If a system play is .500 or better, that will be something to consider. Until I can figure out how to correctly determine how to pick RRL plays, I'm leaving it alone, not even going to speculate on the criteria used.
Ok, I'm done. Let's move on and please keep it civil.
Danrules24 a filter is being manufactured to be placed on the final cut, pushing the -1.5 handicap forward, dedicated to dog play, further in formation on this would have to be obtained through DG through PM direct, although posting picks are not permitted we can confer with DG on the cut system, to where you will have the awareness of it's application in advance to put into form, we have the system, at this point, data and a 'cut' filter has to be incorporated into the sheet; connecting the RRL lean
Just a side note. Let's try and keep this thread on topic of picking dog winners, please. This will be my last comment on the matter...
Now, I don't personally know S_N, but I can tell you guys this, I've seen his posts on picks for both football and baseball and he handicaps games in a way that hurts my head thinking about it. From what I can tell, he does so by looking at numerous data points and then carefully makes his picks. I've seen him post toward the latter parts of the season once there has been a wealth of data. His picks have been fantastic and I do not question his handicapping. If we are fortunate enough to see him post picks later in the season, I would suggest playing them using your own money management system.
As far as the RRL, I have no idea how he determines his picks. He has his methods that he has every right not to share. I believe he is posting his results to let everyone know that there is something there as far as finding value in the RRL picks. Do I wish he would post his plays prior to the games? Well of course, he has a great win rate. As mentioned, I think he is simply letting us know that there is something good here.
Using the spreadsheet Degen has come up with, there is a column on RRL which he has described in an earlier post. If a system play is .500 or better, that will be something to consider. Until I can figure out how to correctly determine how to pick RRL plays, I'm leaving it alone, not even going to speculate on the criteria used.
Ok, I'm done. Let's move on and please keep it civil.
Danrules24 a filter is being manufactured to be placed on the final cut, pushing the -1.5 handicap forward, dedicated to dog play, further in formation on this would have to be obtained through DG through PM direct, although posting picks are not permitted we can confer with DG on the cut system, to where you will have the awareness of it's application in advance to put into form, we have the system, at this point, data and a 'cut' filter has to be incorporated into the sheet; connecting the RRL lean
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