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MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Posted: #176
I haven't really have been following the Dog Eff and the newest stuff until today.  I have the gist of it but...
Question:  Is Tampa a favorite play only because Toronto is a system play or would be a favorite play anyway (if Toronto wasn't a play).

Two, I ran the update about 130pm (EST) today and got the same plays as DanRules.  However, I just hit the refresh odds button and Arizona came up under the MLB Underdog play (the odds went from -110 when I bet them to now +100 on the sheet).  Looking at the 4 columns on the right, am I right when I say that AZ is not a Dog Eff play, but is a Dog Eff Score play?  Current numbers under Dog Eff are .455 and .286 and under Dog Eff Score AZ is a 3 (Dog Rank) and Los Angeles is a -1 (Fav Rank)
 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I haven't really have been following the Dog Eff and the newest stuff until today.  I have the gist of it but...
Question:  Is Tampa a favorite play only because Toronto is a system play or would be a favorite play anyway (if Toronto wasn't a play).

Two, I ran the update about 130pm (EST) today and got the same plays as DanRules.  However, I just hit the refresh odds button and Arizona came up under the MLB Underdog play (the odds went from -110 when I bet them to now +100 on the sheet).  Looking at the 4 columns on the right, am I right when I say that AZ is not a Dog Eff play, but is a Dog Eff Score play?  Current numbers under Dog Eff are .455 and .286 and under Dog Eff Score AZ is a 3 (Dog Rank) and Los Angeles is a -1 (Fav Rank)

Tampa is a fav play based on EFF Score only, has nothing to do with Tor qualifying under a different dog system. Compare The Fave Eff Score and the Dog EFF score. If the fave is a + score and dog a neg, then it is a Fave EFF Score play. If the dog is + and the Fave is -, then it's a Dog EFF Score play. So for TB we have +4 and the dog Tor is -50, so TB is the FAVE Score play.

I'm still showing AZ as a - odds. If AZ moved to a dog (+ ods or even), then they would qualify as a Dog EFF Score play as they would be at 3 and the LAD at -24 as a fave. They would not be a Dog EFF play since both columns need to be at .400 or better.

 

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Posted: #178
Oops...read Az favorite instead of La's, and thanx for the info on Tbay

Checked a site that has the line shifts and in the last hour AZ has gone from +100 to -102 to +102, +103, back to +100!  Not sure what site this tails...Pinnacle, I think.

 
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Posted: #179

Dog EFF Score

YTD 3-2, +1.82 units

No plays

Fave -1 EFF Score

0-1, -1 unit

YTD 6-5, -.12 units 

Tampa 120(after making them -1) Loss

Dog EFF

0-1, -2 units

YTD 15-11, +16.1 units

Oak 103, 2 units Loss

System Plays

1-2, -.83 units

YTD 79-78, +19.41 units

Oak 103 Loss

Tor 130 WIN

Phil/SF Under 6 -110 Loss

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Posted: #180

another vg  hit on the Dog EFF

[Toronto+135 ML WIN]

take note: the Fav -1 needs to be detached from this thread, and given attention on a different platform, it is in total contrast to the originality of the Dog EFF system...your dealing exclusively with 'dogs' not -1 favorites (which happens to be an asinine wager connected to MLB betting; playing the push will get a capper nowhere on this seldom used if at all -1 why not 1.5 and go for the WIN other than a push? theirs no debate to this, a perfect example> TOR | TAM two systems in total contrast, one taking TOR to win on the dog side, the other taking TAM on the -1 LINE,

documenting a WIN for TOR, and a LOSS for TAM makes no sense, to the nature of the proposed thread, which is strictly "dog play" stay with it your results are consistent. If interest is in the -1 favorite, good! start a separate thread, and continue, I would highly recommend -1.5 other than -1

Miami +170

Toronto +130

last two days- excellent, "that's precisely what this thread is about; dogs"

 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

another vg  hit on the Dog EFF

[Toronto+135 ML WIN]

take note: the Fav -1 needs to be detached from this thread, and given attention on a different platform, it is in total contrast to the originality of the Dog EFF system...your dealing exclusively with 'dogs' not -1 favorites (which happens to be an asinine wager connected to MLB betting; playing the push will get a capper nowhere on this seldom used if at all -1 why not 1.5 and go for the WIN other than a push? theirs no debate to this, a perfect example> TOR | TAM two systems in total contrast, one taking TOR to win on the dog side, the other taking TAM on the -1 LINE,

documenting a WIN for TOR, and a LOSS for TAM makes no sense, to the nature of the proposed thread, which is strictly "dog play" stay with it your results are consistent. If interest is in the -1 favorite, good! start a separate thread, and continue, I would highly recommend -1.5 other than -1

Miami +170

Toronto +130

last two days- excellent, "that's precisely what this thread is about; dogs"

I'm in total agreement on this. I have no problem keeping this thread to the original intent of Dogs.

I'm doing plenty of other tracking on faves (RPI system for one) so I will not continue with the Fave EFF Score. If someone else wants to track and run that on a different thread, have at it.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #182

Tuesday 5/7 system plays: I removed the Fave plays as noted above. The Unders system is 12-6 on the year.

Dog EFF Score

YTD 3-2, +1.82 units

Sea 122

AZ 107

Dog EFF

YTD 15-11, +16.1 units

KC 115, 2 units

Oak 101, 2 units

Sea 122, 2 units

Atl 108, 2 units

NYY 107, 2 units

Phil 128, 2 units

System Plays

YTD 79-78, +19.41 units

KC 115

Oak 101

Sea 122

Atl 108

NYY 107

Phil 128

Tor 121

AZ 107

Det/Wash Under 7 -110

STL/Cubs Under 7.5 -120

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #183

Tuesday 5/7 results:

Dog EFF Score

1-1, +.07 units

YTD 4-3, +1.89 units

Sea 122 Loss

AZ 107 WIN

Dog EFF

1-5, -7.44 units

YTD 16-16, +8.66 units

KC 115, 2 units Loss

Oak 101, 2 units Loss

Sea 122, 2 units Loss

Atl 108, 2 units Loss

NYY 107, 2 units Loss

Phil 128, 2 units WIN

System Plays

4-5,-.44 units

YTD 83-83, +18.97 units

KC 115 Loss

Oak 101 Loss

Sea 122 Loss

Atl 108 Loss

NYY 107 Loss

Phil 128 WIN

Tor 121 WIN

AZ 107 WIN

Det/Wash Under 7 -110 rain

STL/Cubs Under 7.5 -120 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #184

the system is over-powering LOSS based on the value of the RRL dog play:

Last nights winning action

Arizona D'Backs +265 RRL  WIN

Philadelphia Phillies +288 RRL  WIN

Toronto BlueJays +285 RRL  WIN

O/U are showing a WIN consistency of 72%

St Louis | Cubs UNDER-7.5  WIN  ( vg capp,playing at Wrigley)

good sheet DG...it's clear, it produces winning 'value'

 

 
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

the system is over-powering LOSS based on the value of the RRL dog play:

Last nights winning action

Arizona D'Backs +265 RRL  WIN

Philadelphia Phillies +288 RRL  WIN

Toronto BlueJays +285 RRL  WIN

O/U are showing a WIN consistency of 72%

St Louis | Cubs UNDER-7.5  WIN  ( vg capp,playing at Wrigley)

good sheet DG...it's clear, it produces winning 'value'

 

SN, what is RRL?

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Posted: #186

Wed 5/8 system plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 4-3, +1.89 units

AZ 163

Dog EFF

YTD 16-16, +8.66 units

Atl 103, 2 units

Oak 104, 2 units

Tex 106, 2 units

System Plays

YTD 83-83, +18.97 units

 Atl 103

Oak 104

Tex 106

Cubs 105

Phil 141

Mets 104

Tor 165

Hou 126

NYY 121

AZ 163

Sea/Pitt Under 6.5 -120

Det/Was Under 7 -110

 

 

 

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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

SN, what is RRL?

Nevermind, I have it. Dumb question.

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Posted: #188
I have a guess, but...okay Dan, what's RRL?
 
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Posted: #189
I'm "chaser" may be 2 units for UNDER system?
 
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Posted: #190

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I have a guess, but...okay Dan, what's RRL?

reverse Run Line. Take the Dog -1.5 runs for huge + odds.

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Posted: #191

Wed 5/8 results

Dog EFF Score

1-0, +1.63 units

YTD 5-3, +3.52 units

AZ 163 WIN

Dog EFF

2-1, +2.18 units

YTD 18-17, +10.84 units

Atl 103, 2 units WIN

Oak 104, 2 units Loss

Tex 106, 2 units WIN

System Plays

7-5, +3.19 units

YTD 83-83, +22.16 units

Atl 103 WIN

Oak 104 Loss

Tex 106 WIN

Cubs 105 Loss

Phil 141 Loss

Mets 104 Loss

Tor 165 Loss

Hou 126 WIN

NYY 121 WIN

AZ 163 WIN

Sea/Pitt Under 6.5 -120 WIN

Det/Was Under 7 -110 WIN

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #192

Dog EFF [RRL]

Yesterday's [reverse RunLine] Results

Atlanta Braves +183 RRL  WIN

Houston Astros +240 RRL  WIN

Texas Rangers +186 RRL  WIN

previous Dog EFF [RRL]

 
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Posted: #193
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

Dog EFF [RRL]

Yesterday's [reverse RunLine] Results

Atlanta Braves +183 RRL  WIN

Houston Astros +240 RRL  WIN

Texas Rangers +186 RRL  WIN

'previous' Dog EFF [RRL] post's

Miami Marlins +365 RRL  WIN

Toronto BlueJays +285 RRL  WIN

vg work on the O/U system releases, after yesterday's 2-0 the system is at a 73% WIN ratio, with the consistency margin rising daily. well done-

DG, the focus of "fine tuning" comes by way of the RRL, it's consistency cannot be overlooked, nor can it's supreme value not be modified into the Dog EFF[RRL] formulated system. this would require variables, attached to the sheet, connected to RRL data base...another key factor are the O/U results, they're consistent (to say the least) that's what your looking for when producing an innovative system- my best

 
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Posted: #194

Thursday 5/9 system plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 5-3, +3.52 units

Philly 107

Dog EFF

YTD 18-17, +10.84 units

Minn 141, 2 units

Pitt 106, 2 units

Atl 106, 2 units

System Plays

YTD 83-83, +22.16 units

Clev 105

Colo 115

Minn 141

Pitt 106

Tor 133

Hou 138

Atl 106

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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Dog EFF [RRL]

Yesterday's [reverse RunLine] Results

Atlanta Braves +183 RRL  WIN

Houston Astros +240 RRL  WIN

Texas Rangers +186 RRL  WIN

'previous' Dog EFF [RRL] post's

Miami Marlins +365 RRL  WIN

Toronto BlueJays +285 RRL  WIN

vg work on the O/U system releases, after yesterday's 2-0 the system is at a 73% WIN ratio, with the consistency margin rising daily. well done-

DG, the focus of "fine tuning" comes by way of the RRL, it's consistency cannot be overlooked, nor can it's supreme value not be modified into the Dog EFF[RRL] formulated system. this would require variables, attached to the sheet, connected to RRL data base...another key factor are the O/U results, they're consistent (to say the least) that's what your looking for when producing an innovative system- my best

Excellent idea SN....maybe some DOGs have a very good efficiency not only winning as dogs, but winning by more than 1 ar dogs....the data is there in the spreadsheet - just need to add another column and pull it in.  I'll work on that.

So i'll create a DOG eff AND a DOG EFF SCR for DOGS that win by more than 1 - this may give us some opportunities to not only bet the dog ML - but instead bet the DOG on the RRL (reverse run line) - which could lead to more value.

I'll work on it.

 
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Posted: #196

For those that are interested - these plays for today have a decent DOG EFF score for RRL (reverse run line) - in other words of all the games that PIT were dogs they won by 2 or more .545 (54.5%) of the time.  Therefore - there is quite a bit of value on betting PIT on the RRL

MIN - .455

PIT - .545

ATL - .625

 
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Posted: #197

Quote Originally Posted by ClubChammp:

One more question- as I look for today's picks, some of the dogs have turned into favs- do I still bet them or readjust?

I just updated the lines and I didn't see any dog turn into a fave.

The 2 systems for Tony Stoffo alone would be profitable:

Unders are 15-6

MLB Dog System: All plays is 60-59, +12.16 units with flat betting (when combined with at least one other system: 23-18, 8.48 units) 

Actually all systems are profitable.

Low Scoring dog: 7-6, +3.55 units (when combined with at least one other system: 7-4, +5.55, 0-2 as a qualifying play under this system only)

Division Dog: 28-31, +5.41 units (with other systems:19-14, 9.54 units). 9-17, -4.13 units when it only qualifies under this system

6 Hit: 15-9, +10.43 units (with other systems:14-8, +10.19)

 

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Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

For those that are interested - these plays for today have a decent DOG EFF score for RRL (reverse run line) - in other words of all the games that PIT were dogs they won by 2 or more .545 (54.5%) of the time.  Therefore - there is quite a bit of value on betting PIT on the RRL

MIN - .455

PIT - .545

ATL - .625

Nice work!

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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by ClubChammp:




Thanks !! What do you think of Stoffos under system of when 2 top 20 pitchers are facing , take the under..

It's 15-6! I like it a lot so far.

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Posted: #200
I have been trying to upload V9 with the RRL Dog EFF but google docs is not letting me - it does nothing when I click upload - like I didn't click on anything no error message or anything any body else have this problem?
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