New YPPT Method

Roughshod,

Awesome thing you're doing here, I added you as a friend, I'd like to contribute as well.

Recon

• To account for HFA, instead of using the teams overall rush/pass per game, I averaged the away team's overall yrds and its away off/def yrds to get its initial rush/pass yrds(before the SOS adjustment). vice versa for the home team. In other words, if a team is away, i'm placing twice as much weight on its away off/def stats than its overall stats.
  
• As VGPOP mentioned, i think one of the flaws of this system is that it places too much weight on the SOS, especially when there's a big disparity between the two teams SOS. Based on the original system, each team's SOS ratio = (its own SOS)/(avg SOS of the two teams). In order to mitigate the effect of SOS on the final prediction, I took the square root(aka geometric avg) of original SOS ratio to be the new SOS ratio(sqrt((team's SOS)/(avg SOS))). Let me know what you guys think of this.

• Are we still using the Sagarin SOS, someone mentioned something about using the Sagarin rating instead of the SOS now? Confirmation needed on this.
• Much like capping a basketball game, I would like to incorporate the # plays per game into this system because I think the pace of hte game is very important. Anyone got any ideas for this?

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Quote Originally Posted by hard8:



How do you use the pm feature?

How to use PM

Double click on the User name.

Scroll down, bottom left there is a function called Private message AKA PM.

Great works guys.... thanks for all your hard effort.

If so do your homework!

The Eagles have big problems on the O-Line, if they have this fixed go ahead....if not move cautiously.....The Raiders game may not have been that big of a FLUKE as everyone thinks.

Crash

I ran the numbers on the NFL games yesterday using the exact formula Rough used in post # 41 but made adjustments to numbers for example if the defense gives up less than the opp. it is a plus instead of a minus because the are better against the league . (ex. Dolphins 61 Opp 89.1) Dolphins are a +28.1 and on the YPPT if the OFF is higher than the opp it is a negitive for instance the opp score a pt every 15.4 yds where the Jets take 16.1 yds so the become a -.7 So it goes like this on OFF higher than opp  allow a positive and lower a negitive. ON YPPT OFF if it is higer than OPP it is a negitive. AS for DEF if R+P is lower than OPP allow it is a Positive. And on DEF if  YPPT  is higher it is a positive. I KNOW WTF! Anyway these are the scores from yesterday w/hfa

INDY 30 STL 18      (42-6)

SF 18 HOU 21        (21-24)

SD 24 KC 13           (37-7)

NE 40 TB 10 no/hfa  (35-7)

MIN 17 PIT 23          (17-27)

GB 17 CLE 20          (31-3)

BUF 23 CAR 17        (20-9)

NYJ 20 OAK 12         (38-0)

ATL 21 DAL 24           (21-37)

NO 20 MIA 24            (46-34)

CHI 20 CIN 23             (10-45)

ARI 24 NYG 17           (24-17)

PHI 24 WAS 17           (  ? )

THANKS ROUGH AND VG FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK!!

So what about tonights game. Will Philly cover? Not for sure which to go with!!

I've run 2 different sets of SOS with these being the projected outcomes for each. ( Adjusted to realistic scores.)

Philadelphia    27        30

Washington     10        10

Both projections are very similar in Total Yds & YPPT .

(Philly 360-379 Yds. /  12.8 - 13.3 YPPT)

(Wash. 209-223 Yds. / 24.3 - 25.2 YPPT)

GL

So from VGPOP's previous message, this weeks plays were:

The plays that differ at least +/- 7 points from Vegas line:

• San Diego -5.5 Win
• Indianapolis -14.5 Win
• Minnesota +6 Loss - tough one with Def TD return
• New England -15.5 Win
• San Francisco +3 Push
• Buffalo +7 Win - Outright by dog
• Atlanta +5 LOSS - Only bad one
• Arizona +7 (Sunday Night) Win - Outright by dog
  
• Philadelphia -7 (Monday Night) -TBD

Let's see how they do.

So there was only really one "bad" predicted outcome in the group - Atlanta vs Dallas...I was thinking about this earlier today and was wondering if some sort of adjustment needs to be made for the fact that the Cowboys were coming off a bye...I think that is a critically important element since the rest and 2 weeks of prep by the coaching staff usually helps out a ton...not sure if it was previously mentioned but just struck me as something to consider...great work guys, appreciate all your efforts...by the way, I'm pretty good with Excel if you ever need assistance... 

VGPOP, I think I got all my numbers straight now. I re-ran last week's to make sure they were exactly what you had. Can you run tomorrow's college game so I can check?

With the junk games removed from stats, I projected East Carolina 32, Memphis 18 without HFA. With the standard 3.5 HFA that Rough was using, it came down to East Carolina 30, Memphis 20. Line is East Carolina -4.

SF and INDY were coming off byes too.

Best of Luck

Good point, but they were both teams to play on, not against...my thought was to exclude times when the system said to play against someone who was coming off a bye...

mskimike709

There are no situational references as to not playing a team off a bye, not by me anyways.

GL

Tuesday - Friday College Games

Same method as Monday Night Game 2 sets of SOS.

East Carolina                    27           30

Memphis  (+4.0 )               24           20

North Carolina                  10           13

Virginia Tech  (- 16.5 )       44           31

West Virginia                    27            24

South Florida  ( +3.5 )        20            21

Based on these projections all of these are NO PLAYS.

GL