New YPPT Method

I am starting work on this now. I will need 8-10 games of stats before testing begins.

GL

I ran the numbers on the NFL games yesterday using the exact formula Rough used in post # 41 but made adjustments to numbers for example if the defense gives up less than the opp. it is a plus instead of a minus because the are better against the league . (ex. Dolphins 61 Opp 89.1) Dolphins are a +28.1 and on the YPPT if the OFF is higher than the opp it is a negitive for instance the opp score a pt every 15.4 yds where the Jets take 16.1 yds so the become a -.7 So it goes like this on OFF higher than opp  allow a positive and lower a negitive. ON YPPT OFF if it is higer than OPP it is a negitive. AS for DEF if R+P is lower than OPP allow it is a Positive. And on DEF if  YPPT  is higher it is a positive. I KNOW WTF! Anyway these are the scores from yesterday w/hfa

INDY 30 STL 18      (42-6)

SF 18 HOU 21        (21-24)

SD 24 KC 13           (37-7)

NE 40 TB 10 no/hfa  (35-7)

MIN 17 PIT 23          (17-27)

GB 17 CLE 20          (31-3)

BUF 23 CAR 17        (20-9)

NYJ 20 OAK 12         (38-0)

ATL 21 DAL 24           (21-37)

NO 20 MIA 24            (46-34)

CHI 20 CIN 23             (10-45)

ARI 24 NYG 17           (24-17)

PHI 24 WAS 17           (  ? ) (27-17) Not Bad, Plus my Teaser was a Winner

THANKS ROUGH AND VG FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK!!

I've run 2 different sets of SOS with these being the projected outcomes for each. ( Adjusted to realistic scores.)

Philadelphia    27        30

Washington     10        10

Both projections are very similar in Total Yds & YPPT .

(Philly 360-379 Yds. /  12.8 - 13.3 YPPT)

(Wash. 209-223 Yds. / 24.3 - 25.2 YPPT)

GL

I did not read this whole tread because it is 1000 posts but i did read the first few.  Unless something has changed Is this not the Dudley method??

The dudley was effective throughout the 80's maby early 90's but then it just got cought up with.  Books cought up with it and the public widley used and I guess still uses it.  Adding mass used saragin rating is not going to be enough to give you a long term edge over the books.  Im not saying this doesn't give a good steping stone or a good place to start handicapping your game.  But this is just not enough to get an edge on the books. 

You want to know the best way to check if this will be a profitable system??  Write down the wagers over the next 200 bets.  If you can beat the closing line by on average just 1 point i will stand corrected

NBA TEST FORMULA

This is a test formula using last seasons stats. Do not consider this a formula play in any way. System uses very similar principles as football system, using POINTS PER ATTEMPT in each shooting situation in place of YPPT.

Test Projection

                          2 PTA     PPA      3PTA    PPA    FTA     PPA

Boston                 57.83    .962       16.95    1.065    22.93   .821  

Cleveland            56.67     .961       19.56    1.067   26.08   .771   

Projected Score

Boston           92.47

Cleveland      95.44

Remember this is in the trial phase I need this years stats for more accurate results.  

GL