Tennis(Miami)

n3gative, is the Del Potro play based on assuming the Soderling injury might still be affecting him? How big of a factor was that for you to put two units on DelPo laying juice in this spot? I think based on form this year there is no question Soderling should be the favorite and a decent sized one to boot, but the injury situation throws me off a bit.

I have an extremely hard time seeing Del Potro and his shaky serve making it past a healthy Soderling without a big letdown from the Swede.

im thinking the same thing...paying the juice on Del Potro vs a top 5 player is a no-no imho.

If Soda plays decent ( that is, if injury is not troubling him ) he will be able to roll here

gl

Soderling isn't healthy.... https://www.sportsinjuryclinic.net/knee-injuries/robin-soderling-out-of-monte-carlo-with-knee-injury/458064138/

I suspect he will try his hardest to get points here but will be a tough ask against Del Po

That article is dated 2010. I think it's referring to an injury fom last year. I believe he is bothered by his foot at the moment.

A post from last week: "Soderling admitted that he’d injured his left foot last weekend and had been bedridden with a fever upon his arrival in Indian Wells."

Linked wrong article ... sorry guys

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/tennis-indian-men-idUKN1418425520110314

I watched him play Kohls and he could barely move. No way he beats an in form and decent Dodig if he was that abd off still. He only kept close to Kohls due to his serve and Kohls being a huge choker. Him surviving a three setter there alone indicates he has improved, and I have read from Swedish fasn that he is said to be claiming he is back to 100%, but as of yet I cannot find a source on that unless you want a link to the message board poster's post on it.

And I have also read that Del Potro took a medical timeout in the third set vs Kohls in his last match here. Claims are he is exhausted. He is less fit than Soderling notwithstanding the foot, no doubt about that, and he will also not exploit Soderlin's movement like some will nor do I expect a great many long rallies. It that ankle is 70% I love his odds vs a weakened foe.

Last time they met was the 2009 YEC/WTF semifinals and DelPo won in a super tight three setter. I know Soderling will want revenge because that was the semis and in the wtf finals awaited his bitch davydenko. so to him delpo stole the trophy.

delpo was the fave before that match and the one prior to him winning the uso where soderling pulled out with a wrist injury. both similar lines to where it stands now. so i think while the injury influenced this line a bit that it is there more because people think del potro is the better player and pretty much back. we will see.

also i doubt soderling limps around and takes it up the ass like the did vs kohls. if you have a book that needs matches completed to be graded then i think he is a safe bet because if he is as bad off as some insinuate then he will surely retire. after his last match vs kohlschreiber he in the press conference afterward  regretted taking the court at all!

I have sen many guys limp around like Robin and be fine the next week btw, and if the injury were truly serious he would either not be here or not be able to even hobble around because if it were serious that would only exacerbate it. i think it was more of a severe tweak that got right in the time off as they usually do.

His quote after the match with Kohls:

“I think I lost the match even before that.  I think I lost the match when I decided to go on court, because today I shouldn’t have done that… Sitting here after the match, it feels like I couldn’t give 100 per cent.”

Now you tell me, does this sound like a man who will subject himself to the very same humiliation one week later? He stayed on that court because Kohls was so crazy he thought he could beat him injured, then perhaps recuperate before the next round in the time off. He will know early vs DelPo whether his body will give him the prper chance and I think judging from his reaction to last week pull the plug if his body is not good enough to go.

Then back Soderling ...good luck to you

Why would Delpo be a favorite versus a top 5 player on a court that suits him if he was 100% ? Makes no sense to me

sry this is the full quote:



“I think I lost the match even before that.  I think I lost the match when I decided to go on court, because today I shouldn’t have done that. It was pretty stupid to play. Sitting here after the match, it feels like I couldn’t give 100 per cent.”

sry left out the sentence that helped my point of view out the most! lol, it is early for me, just woke up.

look around the few tennis forums and check out public perception. it is that soderling has struggled for awhile and delpo is on fire. delpo was also favored vs verdasco and lost in two sets then despite that the very next good player he played, roddick, he was favored against as well.

sometimes lines dont make sense to you and that is when you should fade them esp if getting plus money. especially with the angle of having a book that requires match completion. last week IMHO was the most embarrassing thing I have seen Soderling go through since losing to Granollers in the AO last year.

No rule you cannot bet it too if you agree the line does not make sense. But I guess I think they can fuck up huge and you seem to think that if a line is way off to your perception that it is you in the wrong and not the market (is public they cater to) that set it.

i think the line looks off and that it is not just there due to the injury. i think name value and the fact that delpo is younger/a slam champion, and WIDELY thought of as a better player "at his peak" than soderling, and this bs perception of soderling having been struggling "for awhile now", is outweighing the injury concerns, though i agree they are influening it at least 20 points, but to me it is off by more than that.

ill make a thread about it once i download internet explorer so the bing engine doesnt load up like when i try to start threads on this browser. i think i can make a case and dont wanna disrespect n3gative by posting any more here, just was wondering if that was his reasoning for taking the play.

meant to write: is outweighing the ranking discrepancy. I know it is weird for someone ranked so low to be favored but I think his name value/hot streak/history/perception of him being better/perception of soderling struggling not only with injury but moreso form all conspire to make him the favorite.

and as for "how could that be if delpo is unhealthy?" just because I have read a few match reports stating that DelPo looked tired as hell vs Kohls (makes sense looking at how things went on the scoreboard) and took a MTO does not mean that the general public is aware of this same information. this is a very public tournament and about as popular as non slams get...

I believe Soderling is 19-2 on the season...he is arguably the 2nd hottest player on tour behind Joker. He has won 3 titles already this season. His only losses were to Dolgo at the AO and the match versus Kohly.  So I think its reaching to say people would consider Del Po as the form player.

 

Delpo is the very small favorite because he's the better player on this particular surface. End of story.

1-1 -0.18

(60-72 -7.19 YTD)

2* Almagro -125
2* Tipsarevic -2 +100

I think this is it. I lost two units on that guy. Nice call n3gative and whoever else had DelPo. Brutal beatdown.

I know Soderling has a bit of a history of being upset in humidity and on slow surfaces and should have factored that in more. He was obviously not plagued by the foot in that match but slow hard and humidity is a deadly combination for him historically and it held true again today. My bad, but at least hopefully I can adapt next time they tempt me with an appealing line on him in similar circumstances in the future.

Almagro line is a steal on this surface IMO. I think you will hit that one.

Nice hit on Tips hopefully Almagro takes it in 3

1-1 -0.5

(61-73 -7.69 YTD)

Tuesday

2* Isner/Ferrer -113
1* Fish +305

1-1 +0.79

(62-74 -6.9 YTD)

2* Nadal to win Miami +223
Slower courts than IW, more matches under his belt to regain form, and his tremendous work ethic and coaching will have hammered out the service yips that cost him the finals last week. An out of form Berdych up next and an erratic Fed possibly in the semis, really like Nadal's chances here.

what do you think the line would be for Nadal-Fed?

I looked at that future and think it might just be better to take Nadal the whole way through if the odds against Fed are not too bad

Do you think something happens to Djokovic (and Federer for that matter against Simon) before then? I'm pretty sure you'd get better odds rolling Nadal over 3 times