Tennis(Miami)

I see Fed having trouble with Simon, and Djokovic having issues with Ferrer or Fish.
Just can't see Novak winning back to back titles.

Probably jumped the gun on the future, rolling Nadal thrice might have been the better option(completely spaced out on this idea)

baker I think Nadal could be as high as -180 on this surface

Probably did, but hopefully it's one of those that pay off either way.

Good luck with Rafa, there's no doubt he's motivated.

*1 Federer not to win 2-0 +143

BOL Today N3gative

I spliced Simon's ML and Fed 2 for the same basic bet so gl.

and I also see Nadal taking this tournament. I will just watch him play Fed if Fed gets there but if Rafa makes it to the finals and plays Novak at dog odds I will make a medium sized wager on him. I assume that despite fatigue and letdown concerns that Djoker would enter that match as the fave given his current ironclad rep as the true number one on hardcourts.

nice plays n3...i'm on the same.

why not ends in 3 sets +201?

For the scenario where Federer packs his bag after dropping the 1st set, like Clijsters yesterday

I think everyone is overvaluing Simon here

how is +500 overvaluing simon?

People are overvaluing the AO match... Roger dominated that match until he lost focus.  Do you think he loses focus today or overlooks him? my guess is no

And come on Sims... breaking Covers rules for three bucks?

But he led 2-0 h2h before that match as well so how can you say people are overvaluing that match when there is more evidence? I doubt people would be as enthused about him if the AO this year were their first meeting.

And it is not just about whether or not Roger overlooks him. Has Roger been overlooking Djoker these last few times? Hell no, but he just cannot beat him regularly anymore.... in other words, this age related decline is causing him to lose matches he would not have before. I expect this to accelerate. He is going to start losing to people outside the top 5 at some point this year.

And not just that..s is a game of matchups. Even the best players ever have lesser players they match up poorly with. So it is with Simon and Llodra, for example. Here Simon has many matchup issues he can pose to Fed when on his game as has been explained above.

Giles has beaten Fed in his prime, and pushed Fed this year. The conditions on this court are very similar to the last one he challenged on. Fed's form can go off quickly these days despite his great record in 2011. On paper and from having seen their matches there is no way people are overvaluing Simon at +500.

I know you would not want to feel left out if everyone hit this dog and you stayed on the sidelines but it feels like you are just trying to be unique without offering any compelling reason with such a huge payout should not be incentive enough for at least some sort of investment.

My only concern is that this dog is so public and usually public dogs get slaughtered. Especially ones that have huge payouts like this. But then again Hidalgo was in this range vs Mannarino and everyone was on him and he cashed, so perhaps hope remains.

H2h, last match and surface are all critical factors and all are pointing toward Simon in a big way at this line. To me Simon +500 is a criticism proof pick regardless of what happens because no one can be blamed for betting him given the plethora of compelling evidence in his favor.

BP,    Its all about whether Roger looks past him. Roger isn't super Fed anymore...but he is still one of the best in the game today. Djoker is playing amazing tennis right now... I don't subscribe to the notion that because Roger has lost to Djokovic that he is on some sort of downward spiral. Nobody has beaten Novak this year   Keep in mind Novak is the only player to beat Roger this year

I have Roger as 35-1 against players outside the top 10 the past calendar year on hards. His only loss was to Berdych at this tourney last year.

Simon is 1-3 against top 10 players only beating Roddick

Roger hasn't won any major titles lately which has impacted his public perception...he is however still winning matches..esepcially against the players he should beat.  Simon is certainly capable if Roger plays poor...but if Roger plays well...this can only end in disaster for Simon

if Roger plays like he did against Oliver this will be a beat down.

Rafa survives Berdych

Fed hasn't played tennis all week, Rafa is fist pumping his way to the final one way or another

Almost there.

Thinking of buying any back from what you've seen in the SF from either? What do you think of the odds?

Odds didn't come out being that much better (around +270 if you were to roll over -700 vs. Berdych, -140 vs. Federer, and -110 over Djokovic (early line)

depressed they opened Nadal as the dog? what book? I was checking oddsoddsodds.com religiously and the first time I found lines up Nadal was already favored at all five, but there were also arrows showing the line moving toward him so perhaps it had already, but goddamn that is one quick move.

Bookmaker came out with Nadal -120 but they are later releasing lines than the best books, usually waiting for movement at other places before releasing the updated line.

The only reason I find Rafa -110 more appealing than -120 is superstition. But it is nice to know I was at least right that they would open him as a dog. Maybe I will just think of him as a dog that I got in late on and had to pay 10 points for the mistake, ha.

GL n3gative. I would think the semis were encouraging. A bit murkier since both opponents capitulated, though.

The fact that this is in the day encourages me. In the semis before the rain delay Novak looked like he was suffering bigtime out there, and he has yet to play in extreme heat this year if I remember correctly. (n3gative was just posting about the historic cold aussie summer they had this year). Many factors in play for me here* but I find that angle the most compelling.

*--Letdown, potential mental fatigue, Djokovic struggling more this week than before (as in from superman to a more human level), revenge factor for Nadal, Novak getting tight (dominating old Fed is one thing but prime Nadal would mean more and he knows it), the fact that IMO Nadal choked their last match away, the form of Nadal being impressive this week other than one set and of course the fact that this surface is about as close to clay as you can get on hard. whew.

yea, it worked out in the end. I will not be hedging, rather doing the opposite...asinine or not.

3* Nadal -104
The title is his to lose. He's corrected his serve from the previous tournament's mishaps and aside from a slight scare in the quarterfinals here, he had a strange sensation in his shoulder and lost concentration in the 2nd set and early 3rd, he's shown a tunnel vision mentality. He survived vs a gamy Berdych and demolished Federer in the semis, showing no signs of trouble in his shoulder. The courts are absolutely perfect for him, they take the bite out of most groundstrokes and big serves allowing him to comfortably apply himself in a clay court style with his usual unrelenting attitude.
The finals will be played Sunday in the hottest conditions for the day, approaching 33 Celcius. This will quicken the courts up slightly but not enough to seriously change their naturally slow appearance. The forecast includes decent heat under sunny skies with swirling winds up to 25 km/h, something Nadal is comfortable with as his heavy spin shots can negotiate practically any conditions as they cut through the air. Due to his spin, he's able to acclimate himself to any amount of wind quicker than other players who have to rely on finding the right amount of power in their groundstrokes. Nadal can simply turn up the RPM on his shots to dictate where they go and not worry about over hitting.
Djokovic began his match vs Fish in hot, humid circumstances and did not look his usual self showing troubles catching his breath. He was pushed in every early service game and looked to be struggling before the clouds covered the courts and opened up with a rain delay, allowing him to cool off and strategize to counter Fish's opening tactics. The remainder of the match was played under cooler, cloud cover with the occasional sun break towards the end of the match but that was all he needed to dispose of his frustrated opponent.
He allowed Fish to dictate a lot of rallies, relying on his own defense before attacking at the last moment, something Nadal will not allow him to switch up so easily due to the depth of his shots. Djokovic has shown signs of coming back down from his lofty god-like form, giving up plenty of break opportunities and a slight increase in his unforced errors over his last two matches.
I expect an absolute slugfest from the baseline and because of this I favour Nadal's warrior mentality to eventually wear down Djokovic with the help of the weather. The Serb has shown he's extremely focused, saving every breakpoint against him, but the odds are not in his favour for him to finish the tournament perfect in this category. He'll generate chances with his fantastic return of serve and all court game, but outlasting a focused Nadal in these conditions will be quite a feat.
The Spainard to raise the title in Miami.

Still following that superstition stuff. Don't you hate reloading every week?

Rafa opened -120, it was -110 (or a pick) when I posted...

Nadal+Azarenka=

My strategy has actually changed pretty dramatically, not sure what that first comment from you was about. superstition has kept me from reloading in awhile asshole. It was not superstition that caused me to lay juice so many times but what I thought was logic. and while it is superstition when it comes to any single instance to be scared by a fave it is not superstitious at all to say that longterm foregoing faves is the only way I can even break even.

You could have just answered the question. Now go take your medication.

This one I want to bet pretty badly because I believe strongly in it and it feels like pure value to me. As long as I am not laying more than 10 points more than Djoker is I will do it. Waiting for Nadal to turn -110 or so at my book so I can say I stuck in principle to the notion of only betting dog odds.