Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by n3gative:
yea, it worked out in the end. I will not be hedging, rather doing the opposite...asinine or not.
3* Nadal -104
The title is his to lose. He's corrected his serve from the previous tournament's mishaps and aside from a slight scare in the quarterfinals here, he had a strange sensation in his shoulder and lost concentration in the 2nd set and early 3rd, he's shown a tunnel vision mentality. He survived vs a gamy Berdych and demolished Federer in the semis, showing no signs of trouble in his shoulder. The courts are absolutely perfect for him, they take the bite out of most groundstrokes and big serves allowing him to comfortably apply himself in a clay court style with his usual unrelenting attitude.
The finals will be played Sunday in the hottest conditions for the day, approaching 33 Celcius. This will quicken the courts up slightly but not enough to seriously change their naturally slow appearance. The forecast includes decent heat under sunny skies with swirling winds up to 25 km/h, something Nadal is comfortable with as his heavy spin shots can negotiate practically any conditions as they cut through the air. Due to his spin, he's able to acclimate himself to any amount of wind quicker than other players who have to rely on finding the right amount of power in their groundstrokes. Nadal can simply turn up the RPM on his shots to dictate where they go and not worry about over hitting.
Djokovic began his match vs Fish in hot, humid circumstances and did not look his usual self showing troubles catching his breath. He was pushed in every early service game and looked to be struggling before the clouds covered the courts and opened up with a rain delay, allowing him to cool off and strategize to counter Fish's opening tactics. The remainder of the match was played under cooler, cloud cover with the occasional sun break towards the end of the match but that was all he needed to dispose of his frustrated opponent.
He allowed Fish to dictate a lot of rallies, relying on his own defense before attacking at the last moment, something Nadal will not allow him to switch up so easily due to the depth of his shots. Djokovic has shown signs of coming back down from his lofty god-like form, giving up plenty of break opportunities and a slight increase in his unforced errors over his last two matches.
I expect an absolute slugfest from the baseline and because of this I favour Nadal's warrior mentality to eventually wear down Djokovic with the help of the weather. The Serb has shown he's extremely focused, saving every breakpoint against him, but the odds are not in his favour for him to finish the tournament perfect in this category. He'll generate chances with his fantastic return of serve and all court game, but outlasting a focused Nadal in these conditions will be quite a feat.
The Spainard to raise the title in Miami.
yea, it worked out in the end. I will not be hedging, rather doing the opposite...asinine or not.
3* Nadal -104
The title is his to lose. He's corrected his serve from the previous tournament's mishaps and aside from a slight scare in the quarterfinals here, he had a strange sensation in his shoulder and lost concentration in the 2nd set and early 3rd, he's shown a tunnel vision mentality. He survived vs a gamy Berdych and demolished Federer in the semis, showing no signs of trouble in his shoulder. The courts are absolutely perfect for him, they take the bite out of most groundstrokes and big serves allowing him to comfortably apply himself in a clay court style with his usual unrelenting attitude.
The finals will be played Sunday in the hottest conditions for the day, approaching 33 Celcius. This will quicken the courts up slightly but not enough to seriously change their naturally slow appearance. The forecast includes decent heat under sunny skies with swirling winds up to 25 km/h, something Nadal is comfortable with as his heavy spin shots can negotiate practically any conditions as they cut through the air. Due to his spin, he's able to acclimate himself to any amount of wind quicker than other players who have to rely on finding the right amount of power in their groundstrokes. Nadal can simply turn up the RPM on his shots to dictate where they go and not worry about over hitting.
Djokovic began his match vs Fish in hot, humid circumstances and did not look his usual self showing troubles catching his breath. He was pushed in every early service game and looked to be struggling before the clouds covered the courts and opened up with a rain delay, allowing him to cool off and strategize to counter Fish's opening tactics. The remainder of the match was played under cooler, cloud cover with the occasional sun break towards the end of the match but that was all he needed to dispose of his frustrated opponent.
He allowed Fish to dictate a lot of rallies, relying on his own defense before attacking at the last moment, something Nadal will not allow him to switch up so easily due to the depth of his shots. Djokovic has shown signs of coming back down from his lofty god-like form, giving up plenty of break opportunities and a slight increase in his unforced errors over his last two matches.
I expect an absolute slugfest from the baseline and because of this I favour Nadal's warrior mentality to eventually wear down Djokovic with the help of the weather. The Serb has shown he's extremely focused, saving every breakpoint against him, but the odds are not in his favour for him to finish the tournament perfect in this category. He'll generate chances with his fantastic return of serve and all court game, but outlasting a focused Nadal in these conditions will be quite a feat.
The Spainard to raise the title in Miami.
excellent writeup, you summed up the major selling points nicely, thought of some stuff I did not and articulated it all very clearly. I was strong on the play already but this greatly increases my comfort level with it.
I am glad you made me think so hard about the heat before the Mardy match so that I was paying even more attention to Djokovic's histrionics before the rain delay. Was a stark reminder of his historic weakness still being a factor. And then you reminded me of the AO cold summer, because one might assume based on his success there that his heat/allergy issue was not as severe as before when that is not the case at all.
I am going to put three to four units on it as well.
gl and I think you are right to increase the stakes. Opportunities like these are what the unit system is about. nice to feel strong about the same play as you. gl and bring your popcorn. 0
up, 2 to go 
Hot Forum Topics
