Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Czech -- I have a question about your system.
Your Rule #2 involves "Opposing the Busters", which means basically fading the public and popular plays. On Page 1 you reference looking at certain sides and totals and what percentage of the public is on what side/total as influencing your plays. My question to you: what if the numbers you are relying upon to determine public betting percentages are incorrect? What happens then?
That's not good if that happens kap, which if you read last few pages is why I'm asking other members about the reliability of the sites people suggest we use to look at these numbers.
When I first started using this method to pick games, I just used Covers consensus numbers. I've heard from many people that this doesn't mean anything, since it's not real money, but I disagree, because it worked very consistently.
I don't know for sure, but I think the Covers consensus numbers actually give us a pretty good idea of what the "public" is on. For example, me.
Dude, I'm no pro handicapper. My whole system is based on trying to follow sharp plays. You will never hear me talk about weather, refs, injuries, etc etc. My reasoning for this is because I know Vegas and sharps and even busters are aware of all this info before I am, and adjust accordingly.
I don't need to understand all of that stuff that traditional "cappers" use, and that so many think is so important. If you are a sharp and can cap your own games at 60% before seeing any movement then that's awesome, but I can't do that.
I'm admitting it right here: I am a buster and very new to sports betting. When I go on Covers contests I click away, and then later I look at the line action, etc and make my bets. You know what's funny is sometimes later I'll check the contests and see I got creamed and I'm like, "I picked that?"
I bet against what I pick on contests ALL THE TIME. Literally man it happens very often. But my point is most busters don't do this, they bet what they like and that's that. So I think the contests show us, maybe not exactly, but a pretty good idea of what the "public" likes.
The nice thing is none of the Covers data is skewed by $, it's just how many people like this side vs that side. It's all relative and those numbers have always worked just fine for me.
I'm fully aware that this is going to sound ridiculous to some people, but it has worked so far. If you think it would be better to use your favorite $ % site, then try it out and tell me how it works. As for me I'll keep what I know works for me, until someone shows me something better.