Thats why im proposing we pick 4 to 5 sites. 2 Vegas and 2 online and we Avg out the % and line movement on all 4 to come up with our final numbers. I would do it but Im in Italy right now and for some reason can't get to those sites.
I think it would be more efficient and we would have more success
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Kapono,
Thats why im proposing we pick 4 to 5 sites. 2 Vegas and 2 online and we Avg out the % and line movement on all 4 to come up with our final numbers. I would do it but Im in Italy right now and for some reason can't get to those sites.
I think it would be more efficient and we would have more success
Geno see now the thread is doing what I wanted getting you guys involved. We're all gonna have own interpretations of course but I think we can work together to get this right.
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Geno see now the thread is doing what I wanted getting you guys involved. We're all gonna have own interpretations of course but I think we can work together to get this right.
Man that Lakers total is tanking talk about a line move. I'm inclined to like the under myself. This is NOT a system play obviously but it's hard to ignore a steam move like this down 3 full points now.
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Man that Lakers total is tanking talk about a line move. I'm inclined to like the under myself. This is NOT a system play obviously but it's hard to ignore a steam move like this down 3 full points now.
This is why we have Rule #2 though. The late line action steamed on the Boston over, and it's tracking under. My theory is that if Vegas sees all the B's coming in for the over like it's free chicken night then they'll raise this line for them so it's that much harder to hit. Could very well be the same thing on the Lakers game.
Rule #2 is just as important as Rule #1. It's how they work TOGETHER that makes the system successful.
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This is why we have Rule #2 though. The late line action steamed on the Boston over, and it's tracking under. My theory is that if Vegas sees all the B's coming in for the over like it's free chicken night then they'll raise this line for them so it's that much harder to hit. Could very well be the same thing on the Lakers game.
Rule #2 is just as important as Rule #1. It's how they work TOGETHER that makes the system successful.
I completely agree. Were finding the Sharp bet, and the Sharps don't lose money or else wouldnt be Sharps. And Vegas has to adjust line to the Sharps so they profit, and were reading that. I just want to use more books to be completely sure of the numbers and movement.
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I completely agree. Were finding the Sharp bet, and the Sharps don't lose money or else wouldnt be Sharps. And Vegas has to adjust line to the Sharps so they profit, and were reading that. I just want to use more books to be completely sure of the numbers and movement.
What's funny is you'd expect to see this on the sides also, and sometimes you do, but when you don't it tells us something.
If the Lakers game is REALLY supposed to go under, then why? Is it because Lakers are gonna shut Denver down? With EVERYONE on Lakers if this line move was so good on the total then we should see Lakers going UP, not down.
The fact that Denver is sitting at 5.5 right now looks sharp. Even at 6 you'd think it looks good since everyone is pounding the Lakers but instead it went down 1/2 a point.
I don't want to oversell it because even at 60% it still has a 40% chance of losing, but so far my play is Denver. No opinion on the total. Wow down to 196.5 now.
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What's funny is you'd expect to see this on the sides also, and sometimes you do, but when you don't it tells us something.
If the Lakers game is REALLY supposed to go under, then why? Is it because Lakers are gonna shut Denver down? With EVERYONE on Lakers if this line move was so good on the total then we should see Lakers going UP, not down.
The fact that Denver is sitting at 5.5 right now looks sharp. Even at 6 you'd think it looks good since everyone is pounding the Lakers but instead it went down 1/2 a point.
I don't want to oversell it because even at 60% it still has a 40% chance of losing, but so far my play is Denver. No opinion on the total. Wow down to 196.5 now.
I never posted this earlier, since I said I wasn't betting any overs right now, but look at indi as an example.
Every buster out there took the under tonight, yet the line went from 179 to 179.5 and STAYED THERE.
Total is at 143 with the whole 4th quarter to go, so I'd say over was the play.
So (Rule 1) was satisfied with line movement, even though there was a clear majority on the under (Rule 2). The line movement was only 1/2 a point but it never wavered.
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I never posted this earlier, since I said I wasn't betting any overs right now, but look at indi as an example.
Every buster out there took the under tonight, yet the line went from 179 to 179.5 and STAYED THERE.
Total is at 143 with the whole 4th quarter to go, so I'd say over was the play.
So (Rule 1) was satisfied with line movement, even though there was a clear majority on the under (Rule 2). The line movement was only 1/2 a point but it never wavered.
What's funny is you'd expect to see this on the sides also, and sometimes you do, but when you don't it tells us something.
If the Lakers game is REALLY supposed to go under, then why? Is it because Lakers are gonna shut Denver down? With EVERYONE on Lakers if this line move was so good on the total then we should see Lakers going UP, not down.
The fact that Denver is sitting at 5.5 right now looks sharp. Even at 6 you'd think it looks good since everyone is pounding the Lakers but instead it went down 1/2 a point.
I don't want to oversell it because even at 60% it still has a 40% chance of losing, but so far my play is Denver. No opinion on the total. Wow down to 196.5 now.
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Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
What's funny is you'd expect to see this on the sides also, and sometimes you do, but when you don't it tells us something.
If the Lakers game is REALLY supposed to go under, then why? Is it because Lakers are gonna shut Denver down? With EVERYONE on Lakers if this line move was so good on the total then we should see Lakers going UP, not down.
The fact that Denver is sitting at 5.5 right now looks sharp. Even at 6 you'd think it looks good since everyone is pounding the Lakers but instead it went down 1/2 a point.
I don't want to oversell it because even at 60% it still has a 40% chance of losing, but so far my play is Denver. No opinion on the total. Wow down to 196.5 now.
Everywhere I'm looking is showing a huge majority on the under (Lakers). I just don't trust moves that follow the public, because we don't know if they're sharp or not. It may hit, or it may not. I don't know. If Denver covers tonight the game could easily go over.
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Everywhere I'm looking is showing a huge majority on the under (Lakers). I just don't trust moves that follow the public, because we don't know if they're sharp or not. It may hit, or it may not. I don't know. If Denver covers tonight the game could easily go over.
Covers had 48% on the under, which doesn't fit. A couple other sites had the number a lot higher, but I can't speak to their validity.
Also, keep in mind you have to look at a decent size sample, not one game. Whether it wins or loses doesn't tell you much until you track it over a decent size sample.
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Geno,
Covers had 48% on the under, which doesn't fit. A couple other sites had the number a lot higher, but I can't speak to their validity.
Also, keep in mind you have to look at a decent size sample, not one game. Whether it wins or loses doesn't tell you much until you track it over a decent size sample.
The only site I've ever used in the past (and it worked quite well) for consensus data is Covers.
The reason I don't think the bet % stats on the other sites are useful, is because even if they're accurate, you don't know what % of those percentages are sharp vs square.
The same could be true of Covers data, of course, but since there's no money on the line, I feel that people pick honestly, meaning according to what they like and what they would/will bet with real money.
If anyone has anything to add about this theory then let's discuss it.
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The only site I've ever used in the past (and it worked quite well) for consensus data is Covers.
The reason I don't think the bet % stats on the other sites are useful, is because even if they're accurate, you don't know what % of those percentages are sharp vs square.
The same could be true of Covers data, of course, but since there's no money on the line, I feel that people pick honestly, meaning according to what they like and what they would/will bet with real money.
If anyone has anything to add about this theory then let's discuss it.
Let's look at the Indi game again for an example, because I almost did call this one, although it disqualified late due to line movement.
Indi -10. Everywhere I looked today people were ALL OVER Orlando tonight, and everyone thought the line was way too high. Okay fine. But then the line went to -10.5, indicating a potential sharp play.
So I watched this line sit at -10.5 all day, and was kinda hoping it went to -11 so we could call it, but it just sat there, and then finally late when I was gonna post something on it I refreshed and it went back to -10.
It's important to note that I'm not looking back and saying this was a system play. The line ended at -10 and I disqualified it. But this is where we need to dig a little deeper I think.
Everyone and their moms were on Orl, yet we had line movement on Indi. It did go back down 1/2 pt late, but how could it not?
I think Vegas often moves the line 1/2 pt or so late for the busters. They knew the busters were coming in hot and heavy on Orl late, so they dropped it back to -10. Indi was still a sharp play, whether it was a "system play" or not.
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Let's look at the Indi game again for an example, because I almost did call this one, although it disqualified late due to line movement.
Indi -10. Everywhere I looked today people were ALL OVER Orlando tonight, and everyone thought the line was way too high. Okay fine. But then the line went to -10.5, indicating a potential sharp play.
So I watched this line sit at -10.5 all day, and was kinda hoping it went to -11 so we could call it, but it just sat there, and then finally late when I was gonna post something on it I refreshed and it went back to -10.
It's important to note that I'm not looking back and saying this was a system play. The line ended at -10 and I disqualified it. But this is where we need to dig a little deeper I think.
Everyone and their moms were on Orl, yet we had line movement on Indi. It did go back down 1/2 pt late, but how could it not?
I think Vegas often moves the line 1/2 pt or so late for the busters. They knew the busters were coming in hot and heavy on Orl late, so they dropped it back to -10. Indi was still a sharp play, whether it was a "system play" or not.
Guys, I've said it before that I don't trust those little 1/2 pt late line moves, specifically because you see it so often for the busters. Once in a while it may be sharp, fine, but usually it's for the busters, when it's toward what the public is betting.
It makes me think back to last night. I called the Utah over, and it didn't come close, and a couple people in here said it went down 1/2 pt late and maybe this should have disqualified it.
I wanted to agree, since this would have bailed me out I guess on the bad play, but it's not true. First off I never saw it drop on my book, and second we had all the indicators to make it a play. It just didn't hit.
Sometimes the system plays are gonna lose. I've spelled out my program and my goal is 60%+. If I call 10 games in the next few days, 4 should lose. It's gonna suck, but losing is part of the game.
If we follow the script though I KNOW 60% is doable.
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Guys, I've said it before that I don't trust those little 1/2 pt late line moves, specifically because you see it so often for the busters. Once in a while it may be sharp, fine, but usually it's for the busters, when it's toward what the public is betting.
It makes me think back to last night. I called the Utah over, and it didn't come close, and a couple people in here said it went down 1/2 pt late and maybe this should have disqualified it.
I wanted to agree, since this would have bailed me out I guess on the bad play, but it's not true. First off I never saw it drop on my book, and second we had all the indicators to make it a play. It just didn't hit.
Sometimes the system plays are gonna lose. I've spelled out my program and my goal is 60%+. If I call 10 games in the next few days, 4 should lose. It's gonna suck, but losing is part of the game.
If we follow the script though I KNOW 60% is doable.
O/U is 3 months that we won't hear from Czech_Razor. What are you going to do when NBA playoffs is over? Look at line movements for baseball? Good luck with that.
Three months?! How bout an O/U of three days? For sure this comedian won't make Sunday!
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Quote Originally Posted by vision23x:
O/U is 3 months that we won't hear from Czech_Razor. What are you going to do when NBA playoffs is over? Look at line movements for baseball? Good luck with that.
Three months?! How bout an O/U of three days? For sure this comedian won't make Sunday!
u know..even with news that joakim noah not playing today you would expect line to go phillies way but it has stayed on -5 all day..going -5 and also 2h..
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u know..even with news that joakim noah not playing today you would expect line to go phillies way but it has stayed on -5 all day..going -5 and also 2h..
Three months?! How bout an O/U of three days? For sure this comedian won't make Sunday!
Hey Rod, buster, in the last 3 days we have 35,000 views and counting, almost as much as the Covers Team thread. I'd say this thread is a success so far and we're working on something special here. Don't be a hater dude why don't you try joining in maybe it will help you too.
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Quote Originally Posted by RodWoman:
Three months?! How bout an O/U of three days? For sure this comedian won't make Sunday!
Hey Rod, buster, in the last 3 days we have 35,000 views and counting, almost as much as the Covers Team thread. I'd say this thread is a success so far and we're working on something special here. Don't be a hater dude why don't you try joining in maybe it will help you too.
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