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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 8, 2012 - 9:47 PM ET #401

If nothing else you can stare at my profile pic over and over again, since I post so much lol

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CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 8, 2012 - 9:48 PM ET #402

Look at Atl second half so far. And Indi and the over second half.

The second half "system" that I was working before got torn down yesterday, but honestly it was working well before and it's going back up very soon. It needed revision but it's almost ready.

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kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: May. 8, 2012 - 9:48 PM ET #403

Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:

Kapono,

Thats why im proposing we pick 4 to 5 sites. 2 Vegas and 2 online and we Avg out the % and line movement on all 4 to come up with our final numbers. I would do it but Im in Italy right now and for some reason can't get to those sites.

I think it would be more efficient and we would have more success

Why would you believe the accuracy of any website for what percentage of bets are coming in on what side? The people who hold that information have zero incentive to publish it to the betting public. Zero.

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RodWoman

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 1472

Posted: May. 8, 2012 - 9:53 PM ET #404

Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

That's not good if that happens kap, which if you read last few pages is why I'm asking other members about the reliability of the sites people suggest we use to look at these numbers.

When I first started using this method to pick games, I just used Covers consensus numbers. I've heard from many people that this doesn't mean anything, since it's not real money, but I disagree, because it worked very consistently.

I don't know for sure, but I think the Covers consensus numbers actually give us a pretty good idea of what the "public" is on. For example, me.

Dude, I'm no pro handicapper. My whole system is based on trying to follow sharp plays. You will never hear me talk about weather, refs, injuries, etc etc. My reasoning for this is because I know Vegas and sharps and even busters are aware of all this info before I am, and adjust accordingly.

I don't need to understand all of that stuff that traditional "cappers" use, and that so many think is so important. If you are a sharp and can cap your own games at 60% before seeing any movement then that's awesome, but I can't do that.

I'm admitting it right here: I am a buster and very new to sports betting. When I go on Covers contests I click away, and then later I look at the line action, etc and make my bets. You know what's funny is sometimes later I'll check the contests and see I got creamed and I'm like, "I picked that?"

I bet against what I pick on contests ALL THE TIME. Literally man it happens very often. But my point is most busters don't do this, they bet what they like and that's that. So I think the contests show us, maybe not exactly, but a pretty good idea of what the "public" likes.

The nice thing is none of the Covers data is skewed by $, it's just how many people like this side vs that side. It's all relative and those numbers have always worked just fine for me.

I'm fully aware that this is going to sound ridiculous to some people, but it has worked so far. If you think it would be better to use your favorite $ % site, then try it out and tell me how it works. As for me I'll keep what I know works for me, until someone shows me something better.

Holy Shit! Here is a guy who is "a buster and very new to sports betting". So much to learn. Rule number 1: There are no systems! Kap, sounds like you've been around. Surprised you haven't mentioned that fact.