Wow guys 37,400 hits+ and counting. And only a few haters. That's really not so bad.
I've already fixed the system parameters, and I have it right. It's really great actually, and I didn't just mold it to fit tonight's games.
I've had this stuff for a while actually, but didn't want to make it any more complicated on paper then it already was. I had no idea there'd be such a response to this thread, and didn't know if it was worth the effort of trying to explain every detail.
That's dumb though. It actually looks better now, even though it's more complicated. It's more comprehensive too though. It's still the same concept as before, of course, but it's a totally revamped version, and fixes the glitches we saw tonight, keeping us from our rightful 4-0.
We'll call it…(lol)
Czech's Road to Riches System 2.0
I knew Chi was sharp tonight, and Denver, and Indi also, and the Indi over. Under the new parameters all 4 of those would have been plays. Chi under would not have, even though I liked that one also.
The key is accepting this concept: not all plays are created equal. I think I posted before that I used to think all plays were equal, meaning they were either sharp, or not. No in between. This is retarded though.
Even according to my previous system, that looks at line movement vs buster consensus only, and under very loose definition, it's immediately obvious that not all plays are equal. One game moves 1/2 point, with 57% on favorite, and another 2 points, with 65%? How is that equal?
The truth is there are degrees of "sharpness", if you will. Some plays we have every indicator to X degree, and some to Y degree, and some we have all but one thing and some everything lines up perfectly.
I wanted everything to line up perfect before, on every single play, and the truth is if you wait for those, my system is SICK. But this isn't always feasible. I missed posting 4-0 tonight because I tried to keep it too tight.
That doesn't mean I'm looking to loosen it up too much and sacrifice quality. I mean, that is a necessary evil with the more plays you try and add. But I'm taking care to make sure this is not what we're doing. I just don't want to keep missing sharp plays just because of a last second 1/2 pt move, and/or because the line doesn't move at all, even though 70% are on one side.
There have to be exceptions to the rules sometimes, but only when the other factors are present to an even greater degree then normal. We're not gonna take a borderline pick and qualify it after a late line move. But when we have something as sharp as Denver tonight, we're not gonna disqualify it either because of that last second 1/2 point move.
Also, there really does have to be a grading system for the system plays.
I've seen how some guys try and do it, 1u play, 2u play, etc. I never wanted to do this with mine, but I think it's necessary to an extent. I'm not sure if I want to get into units, but there has to be a way to differentiate a little bit between play-strength.
Similar to how people post "leans". Meaning, "I kinda like it but don't hold me to it!"
Anyways enough for tonight. Hope I didn't ramble too much. Hope you guys enjoy the thread. Hope someone rode Chi and Denver tonight. I cashed a nice 2-teamer off of them myself.
Okay tomorrow we