Public is all over LAC and the Over but the line is shifting in the opposite direction.
Czech - Systems aren't for me, but I am intrigued. To see if your system works, you're going to need a large sample size... possibly a whole NBA season. I'm not saying a Saudi Shiek is laying wood that's causing line movements. The whole point I was getting at is, how do you know if Vegas is just focused on getting their 10% (meaning 50/50 money) or if it's wiseguys that's causing the line movement?
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As of 6:15 PM Eastern:
Opening Line: Miami -11 O/U 183
Miami: - 11.5 (67%)
New York: +11.5 (33%)
Total 183: Over (58%) - Under (42%)
.....
Opening Line: Memphis -6 O/U 183.5
Los Angeles: +6.5 (67%)
Memphis: - 6.5 (33%)
Total 182.5: Over (70%) - Under (30%)
Public is all over LAC and the Over but the line is shifting in the opposite direction.
Czech - Systems aren't for me, but I am intrigued. To see if your system works, you're going to need a large sample size... possibly a whole NBA season. I'm not saying a Saudi Shiek is laying wood that's causing line movements. The whole point I was getting at is, how do you know if Vegas is just focused on getting their 10% (meaning 50/50 money) or if it's wiseguys that's causing the line movement?
MisterStats, If 67% are on Clippers and it opened at +6, moving the line to Clippers +6.5 would make more ppl bet on Clippers going away from 50%. But your right Vegas is trying to get 50/50, which means more ppl are on Clippers but the bigger bets(wise guys) are on Memphis. So they move it to 6.5 so more idiots bet the Clippers. Ppl who dont look into line movement and think "oh wow i got an extra half a point"
Where did you get your numbers from so i have another place to look for line movement and percentages?
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MisterStats, If 67% are on Clippers and it opened at +6, moving the line to Clippers +6.5 would make more ppl bet on Clippers going away from 50%. But your right Vegas is trying to get 50/50, which means more ppl are on Clippers but the bigger bets(wise guys) are on Memphis. So they move it to 6.5 so more idiots bet the Clippers. Ppl who dont look into line movement and think "oh wow i got an extra half a point"
Where did you get your numbers from so i have another place to look for line movement and percentages?
I know you wait til end to see final lines and to post your plays. But whats looking like it could be on track for the System as of now? I already took the Heat system or not, I just think their blowing the Knicks out tonight. But what about the 2nd game? Memphis and the Under in that game? And to get it straight, since a couple games moved back a half a point late last nite and they all hit. Its the initial or early movements you put more weight on is that correct?
Honestly ironing out the late moves has been one of the bigger challenges. The truth is not all line movements are equal, including late ones, and timing is important, as well as intensity of the move, also in relation to the open line, etc.
I've been doing a lot of work and research on all of this. The truth is those late line moves can be sharp sometimes, and almost always are when they are in accordance with Rule #2 going against the public.
It's the ones that go towards the public that have been the challenge. We saw that last night with the Bulls over, Boston over, Lakers under, Lakers, etc.
That's why I've worked to correct this problem. The simple answer is the line movement throughout the day is more reliable than the last minute "adjustments", as i call them, which are often adjusted towards the side that Vegas is anticipating the money to come in on from the public.
Think about it, Vegas knows that in the half hour before the Lakers game comes on, that most of the public bettors getting their bets in late are taking the Lakers. So they raise the price a little bit.
So we see the line go back up 1/2 pt towards Lakers, back to -6, but I think this is for the public and not reliable. It's hard to fit all of this into my initial simplified 1-2-3 version of the system though.
Czech's Road to Riches System 2.0 is addressing all of this.
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Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:
Czech,
I know you wait til end to see final lines and to post your plays. But whats looking like it could be on track for the System as of now? I already took the Heat system or not, I just think their blowing the Knicks out tonight. But what about the 2nd game? Memphis and the Under in that game? And to get it straight, since a couple games moved back a half a point late last nite and they all hit. Its the initial or early movements you put more weight on is that correct?
Honestly ironing out the late moves has been one of the bigger challenges. The truth is not all line movements are equal, including late ones, and timing is important, as well as intensity of the move, also in relation to the open line, etc.
I've been doing a lot of work and research on all of this. The truth is those late line moves can be sharp sometimes, and almost always are when they are in accordance with Rule #2 going against the public.
It's the ones that go towards the public that have been the challenge. We saw that last night with the Bulls over, Boston over, Lakers under, Lakers, etc.
That's why I've worked to correct this problem. The simple answer is the line movement throughout the day is more reliable than the last minute "adjustments", as i call them, which are often adjusted towards the side that Vegas is anticipating the money to come in on from the public.
Think about it, Vegas knows that in the half hour before the Lakers game comes on, that most of the public bettors getting their bets in late are taking the Lakers. So they raise the price a little bit.
So we see the line go back up 1/2 pt towards Lakers, back to -6, but I think this is for the public and not reliable. It's hard to fit all of this into my initial simplified 1-2-3 version of the system though.
Czech's Road to Riches System 2.0 is addressing all of this.
MisterStats, If 67% are on Clippers and it opened at +6, moving the line to Clippers +6.5 would make more ppl bet on Clippers going away from 50%. But your right Vegas is trying to get 50/50, which means more ppl are on Clippers but the bigger bets(wise guys) are on Memphis. So they move it to 6.5 so more idiots bet the Clippers. Ppl who dont look into line movement and think "oh wow i got an extra half a point"
Where did you get your numbers from so i have another place to look for line movement and percentages?
Guys I'm not gonna speak to your stats here, but let's pretend 67% really are on the Clips.
Let's imagine I sell hamburgers for $1 a piece, and I have a line out the door from people wanting to buy my hamburgers. Am I going to decide to put them on sale for .90 a piece? Of course not. I already have the business.
So if Vegas has 67% of money pouring in on the Clips +6, why would they decide to offer a better price of 6.5, making it easier for them to hit?
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Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:
MisterStats, If 67% are on Clippers and it opened at +6, moving the line to Clippers +6.5 would make more ppl bet on Clippers going away from 50%. But your right Vegas is trying to get 50/50, which means more ppl are on Clippers but the bigger bets(wise guys) are on Memphis. So they move it to 6.5 so more idiots bet the Clippers. Ppl who dont look into line movement and think "oh wow i got an extra half a point"
Where did you get your numbers from so i have another place to look for line movement and percentages?
Guys I'm not gonna speak to your stats here, but let's pretend 67% really are on the Clips.
Let's imagine I sell hamburgers for $1 a piece, and I have a line out the door from people wanting to buy my hamburgers. Am I going to decide to put them on sale for .90 a piece? Of course not. I already have the business.
So if Vegas has 67% of money pouring in on the Clips +6, why would they decide to offer a better price of 6.5, making it easier for them to hit?
Guys I posted last night that I was erasing my current 60%+ record, and starting from scratch. This is counter-intuitive but I don't care.
I am new to posting and caught a lot of shit for weeble-wobbling the last couple days. Even though I was dead-right on every game yesterday, save Atl by 1/2 a point, and that wasn't a system play anyways, I still had haters telling me I suck.
I've already given you guys the tools to work yourselves. I don't care if Mem loses tonight and the game goes over. I mean I do care, since I'm gonna lose $, but you guys need to take what you've got here and email me in a year from now, and tell me what you think. I GUARANTEE you you're gonna find over and over again that when the indicators add up, the play hits more often than not.
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Guys I posted last night that I was erasing my current 60%+ record, and starting from scratch. This is counter-intuitive but I don't care.
I am new to posting and caught a lot of shit for weeble-wobbling the last couple days. Even though I was dead-right on every game yesterday, save Atl by 1/2 a point, and that wasn't a system play anyways, I still had haters telling me I suck.
I've already given you guys the tools to work yourselves. I don't care if Mem loses tonight and the game goes over. I mean I do care, since I'm gonna lose $, but you guys need to take what you've got here and email me in a year from now, and tell me what you think. I GUARANTEE you you're gonna find over and over again that when the indicators add up, the play hits more often than not.
GL tonight Czech. Thanks for all the knowledge. Im not the greatest at math and like the way you break everything down. Hopefully we can get those 3 women back those bastards rode off with the other night.
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GL tonight Czech. Thanks for all the knowledge. Im not the greatest at math and like the way you break everything down. Hopefully we can get those 3 women back those bastards rode off with the other night.
What site do you guys use to track down line movements and the percentage of bets?
Covers. I've looked at other sites and deemed that data unreliable. It may work for some, and I'd be interested to see some research in the future, but the system has always worked fine with Covers consensus data.
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Quote Originally Posted by savelemony:
What site do you guys use to track down line movements and the percentage of bets?
Covers. I've looked at other sites and deemed that data unreliable. It may work for some, and I'd be interested to see some research in the future, but the system has always worked fine with Covers consensus data.
GL tonight Czech. Thanks for all the knowledge. Im not the greatest at math and like the way you break everything down. Hopefully we can get those 3 women back those bastards rode off with the other night.
LOL! Thanks Jerry. Hopefully someone benefits from all of this. Honestly everyone should, in the long run.
Tonight we ride!
--SYSTEM PLAY--
Memphis under 182.5
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Quote Originally Posted by Jerry_J:
GL tonight Czech. Thanks for all the knowledge. Im not the greatest at math and like the way you break everything down. Hopefully we can get those 3 women back those bastards rode off with the other night.
LOL! Thanks Jerry. Hopefully someone benefits from all of this. Honestly everyone should, in the long run.
Guys I'm not gonna speak to your stats here, but let's pretend 67% really are on the Clips.
Let's imagine I sell hamburgers for $1 a piece, and I have a line out the door from people wanting to buy my hamburgers. Am I going to decide to put them on sale for .90 a piece? Of course not. I already have the business.
So if Vegas has 67% of money pouring in on the Clips +6, why would they decide to offer a better price of 6.5, making it easier for them to hit?
Unless you know that the beef that you're selling will go bad tonight. There's reverse line movement going on in that game. This doesn't happen a lot, but it happens. The only explanation I can think of is, they're suckering people into taking LAC.
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Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Guys I'm not gonna speak to your stats here, but let's pretend 67% really are on the Clips.
Let's imagine I sell hamburgers for $1 a piece, and I have a line out the door from people wanting to buy my hamburgers. Am I going to decide to put them on sale for .90 a piece? Of course not. I already have the business.
So if Vegas has 67% of money pouring in on the Clips +6, why would they decide to offer a better price of 6.5, making it easier for them to hit?
Unless you know that the beef that you're selling will go bad tonight. There's reverse line movement going on in that game. This doesn't happen a lot, but it happens. The only explanation I can think of is, they're suckering people into taking LAC.
You guys should know by now that I wait until 15-30 minutes before game time to bet. This total could very well go back to 183 late, for the B's.
According to some new adjustments I'm trying, however, it's gonna stand as a system play for now. The only thing that sucks is say the line goes to 183, I take it there, and it pushes, and so I show a loss on this thread, because I posted it at 182.5
Maybe in the future I'll just post the play, and not the price. I'll post the price I took when I put the bet in. IDK
--SYSTEM PLAY--
MEMPHIS
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You guys should know by now that I wait until 15-30 minutes before game time to bet. This total could very well go back to 183 late, for the B's.
According to some new adjustments I'm trying, however, it's gonna stand as a system play for now. The only thing that sucks is say the line goes to 183, I take it there, and it pushes, and so I show a loss on this thread, because I posted it at 182.5
Maybe in the future I'll just post the play, and not the price. I'll post the price I took when I put the bet in. IDK
hello Czech. Does System 2.0 give us a play for the late night game? I think there was value with NYK if you could get +12 fwiw. Seems like the busters were on Miami. Just another day in the life of a sports bettor
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hello Czech. Does System 2.0 give us a play for the late night game? I think there was value with NYK if you could get +12 fwiw. Seems like the busters were on Miami. Just another day in the life of a sports bettor
Unless you know that the beef that you're selling will go bad tonight. There's reverse line movement going on in that game. This doesn't happen a lot, but it happens. The only explanation I can think of is, they're suckering people into taking LAC.
This is the essence of the system. That's how it works. Line movement that conflicts with what you should see based on where the money is going.
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Quote Originally Posted by misterstats:
Unless you know that the beef that you're selling will go bad tonight. There's reverse line movement going on in that game. This doesn't happen a lot, but it happens. The only explanation I can think of is, they're suckering people into taking LAC.
This is the essence of the system. That's how it works. Line movement that conflicts with what you should see based on where the money is going.
Look guys I understand you want the plays with advanced notice.
The drawback is sometimes I disqualify a play late, which is why I wait to bet myself.
I don't mind giving you guys the plays earlier, but there has to be a mechanism in place for us to still be able to disqualify them later if need be, after being posted.
Does this make sense to anyone? Ideas?
I'm not gonna disqualify a play after the game, obviously, but if it happens pre-game that should be understood. I was thinking something along the lines of:
If a previously posted play is going to be disqualified then it needs to be posted a minimum of 10 minutes before the game starts, and why. Something like that.
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Look guys I understand you want the plays with advanced notice.
The drawback is sometimes I disqualify a play late, which is why I wait to bet myself.
I don't mind giving you guys the plays earlier, but there has to be a mechanism in place for us to still be able to disqualify them later if need be, after being posted.
Does this make sense to anyone? Ideas?
I'm not gonna disqualify a play after the game, obviously, but if it happens pre-game that should be understood. I was thinking something along the lines of:
If a previously posted play is going to be disqualified then it needs to be posted a minimum of 10 minutes before the game starts, and why. Something like that.
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System 2.0 is addressing all of this.
obviously, but if it happens pre-game that should be understood. I was thinking something along the lines of:
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