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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Posted: #501
 
Captain
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Posted: #502
Vegas have some balls to lower the total line and increase the spread.
Looks like they want to reach 66% on Clips and Over.

Food for thought here.

I'd still be worried to follow the system to back Memphis... The Clips now got the edge mentally, especially in the money time. 

BUT looks like the system gave you the right leans yesterday and a nice run before, we have to try how far this system can go and not think too much.

Greetings from Paris. 


 
 
 
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Posted: #503
the last clipper game, the over was the call....  granted it needed o t but that was the right play... your thoughts on tonites games?  how will you bring it to the next level?
 
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Posted: #504
good stuff
 
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Posted: #505
Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:

the last clipper game, the over was the call....  granted it needed o t but that was the right play... your thoughts on tonites games?  how will you bring it to the next level?


Say WHAT??
 
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Posted: #506
Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:

the last clipper game, the over was the call....  granted it needed o t but that was the right play... your thoughts on tonites games?  how will you bring it to the next level?

Scooby, hate to call you out, but guys this is buster-mentality at its finest.  If a game needs OT to go over, then how is the over the right play? 

The game tracked to go comfortably UNDER the number, and by a stroke of bad luck ended in a TIE in regulation (indicating the team with + points was the play for regulation, since it ended in a tie), and then in OT the game went over and Clips won.

I'm not gonna sit here and say Memphis shoulda won, or any of that crap.  But anyone that thinks an over was the right play in this game not only didn't watch it, but doesn't understand sports whatsoever.  I'm new to this but even I'm flabbergasted at this post I'm responding to.

That's what they call being results-oriented…the over hit, therefore it was the play.   No actually, it wasn't, it got lucky.

I see this at the card table too.  Some donkey makes a horrible call without the proper odds to hit his miracle card, he hits it, and then thinks he made the right play. LOL

I see this at the card table all the time too,
 
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Posted: #507
simply put, these 2 teams totals in the 190's range....     when they both realize they are not a 3 pt shooting team   mem 30% clipp 31%, and play their game... ie up and down points in the paint [both shot over 43%]..  game flies over...  clipp just have to hit their ft and no worries..
 
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Posted: #508
Mr. Razor congrats on the streak... Can u post ur plays in a color and bold font to make it stand out for those who are keeping up with your mad skills?
 
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Posted: #509
Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:

the last clipper game, the over was the call....  granted it needed o t but that was the right play... your thoughts on tonites games?  how will you bring it to the next level?

"BUSTER COMMENT OF THE DAY"

Guys I think we should have fun with this thread, and we're gonna do a segment every day called, Buster Comment of the Day. Today we'll use Scooby's.
 
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Posted: #510
sorry Scooby, didn't mean to rib you so hard, that was just one of those things that say 
 
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Posted: #511
Yeah Texans.  Easiest way to catch them is check 15 minutes or so before game time.  They'll be there on the last page or second to last page.
 
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Posted: #512
i don't play cards...   just stating that this game went over...  who took the over won... was it lucky , maybe but it should not have to..  i am all for system plays....   i played and now i coach... i understand the game, and how it is played
 
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Posted: #513
Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:

simply put, these 2 teams totals in the 190's range....     when they both realize they are not a 3 pt shooting team   mem 30% clipp 31%, and play their game... ie up and down points in the paint [both shot over 43%]..  game flies over...  clipp just have to hit their ft and no worries..

Look man sorry if I was being offensive. I honestly don't know or care about any of that stuff though.  It doesn't pertain to the system WHATSOEVER.

I called the Mem under 2 games ago, and had a heated debate with smoothD about it, and the under hit.  Then I was on it last time also, and it got sucked out in OT.  But you can't say it was the play last game.  The game tracked under and went under in regulation.  If you had the over you got lucky by OT, plain and simple.  That doesn't mean it was the right play.

Guys, sometimes a right play loses, like when you're covering at 2 seconds to go and no chance to win outright and then there's a meaningless foul that's not supposed to happen, and then you don't cover by 1/2 a point.  That's called a suckout. 

Also, sometimes a wrong play hits, like an over that only hits in OT.  That happened to me in the Boston game a couple games back also, had the under, game made OT, and went over BY HALF A POINT IN OVERTIME.  In other words, it still almost hit, and went over by 1/2 a point in OT.  That, according to me, is a suckout, and the over was not the right play there either, it got LUCKY
 
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Posted: #514
lol...   have fun with it....  fact was it was tied at 85...  both teams chucking bricks from three pt land and hitting at a blazing 30%... [well below avg]   .. throw in blake griffin's putrid under 50% ft shooting...  a couple of these fall and there is the over
 
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Posted: #515
Hey Scooby,

Thanks for posting back and forth man, and for taking me so well.  You're a classy guy I can tell that already. 

I had to use that example though.  Don't worry, we're all busters sometimes, and I'm learning also.  But you helped illustrate a very good point that speaks towards how the system works.

 
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Posted: #516
its gambling...  we win we lose .. that is the way...   in my baseball thread i called phil humbers perfect game and jered weavers no hitter.. so what... we are all in this together.. to win as much as we can...  sore losers are bad,,, sore winners are worse...   i am all for having fun.... and winning is fun... is your system an equation? how does it work?
 
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Posted: #517
New to the forum, and I have a few questions:

1 - What is a B or a Buster?  Did you create that lingo yourself?  I'm guessing you mean "SQUARE" or "PUBLIC".

2 - How does your system protect against bad swings and negative variance?  Vegas has an infinite bankroll.  We don't.

3 - Do you think all NBA games (specifically the playoffs) is fixed in favor of Vegas?  I'm confused because you mention that Vegas wanted Denver to win last night.

4 - What are your plans when the playoffs is over?  The number of games to cap drastically goes down day by day.

5 - "Not thinking like a Buster"... why not just fade the public in every game?  

6 - You mention you want to follow sharp money.  How do you determine if it's the wiseguys (sharp $) that's causing the line movement and not a Saudi billionaire visiting Vegas... gambling on his favorite team?
---
Good luck but "systems" aren't meant for me.  There's nothing bad that can come out of doing your homework, analyzing both sides, and making the logical choice.  I hope you do well because losing is not fun and can humble you in an instant.
 
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Posted: #518
no disrespect czech but been reading lots of ur rules and stats lately but its so hard to trail with ur picks.  so if possible can u just post the pick, cause i cant read all 6 pages long and get no where in the end....
 
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Posted: #519
thanks .."BUSTER OF THE DAY"     i am on fire whoa... hit over mon now winner of the Buster award for the day....   do you do baseball also?  
 
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Posted: #520
Scooby if you want to know the basics read the first page or 2, then jump to post #301. 

If you're looking for a system that uses weather, refs, injuries, situation spots, etc etc, this is not the place for you. My system uses line movement in correlation to consensus to determine who the sharp money is on, that's it. 

I don't pretend to be a capper, and often times know little about the teams I bet. That's changing now, as I am learning, but I almost think this is more detrimental than anything. 

In my system all of those biases don't help at all. My theory is that as well as I may ever understand that stuff, guys that move the lines know it better and sooner than me. I just want to follow them. 
 
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Posted: #521
line movements....   important...  if there is a huge move suddenly its a sharp player  play with him....  they tend to move lines .. gradual movements is vegas trying to find a happy medium , all they care is the juice....
 
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Posted: #522
Quote Originally Posted by misterstats:

New to the forum, and I have a few questions:

1 - What is a B or a Buster?  Did you create that lingo yourself?  I'm guessing you mean "SQUARE" or "PUBLIC".

2 - How does your system protect against bad swings and negative variance?  Vegas has an infinite bankroll.  We don't.

3 - Do you think all NBA games (specifically the playoffs) is fixed in favor of Vegas?  I'm confused because you mention that Vegas wanted Denver to win last night.

4 - What are your plans when the playoffs is over?  The number of games to cap drastically goes down day by day.

5 - "Not thinking like a Buster"... why not just fade the public in every game?  

6 - You mention you want to follow sharp money.  How do you determine if it's the wiseguys (sharp $) that's causing the line movement and not a Saudi billionaire visiting Vegas... gambling on his favorite team?
---
Good luck but "systems" aren't meant for me.  There's nothing bad that can come out of doing your homework, analyzing both sides, and making the logical choice.  I hope you do well because losing is not fun and can humble you in an instant.

I was gonna try and answer these questions, but you said systems aren't for you, so it would be a waste of my time.

For everyone else though you did post an interesting question or 2, like the second one.  I laid out a plan in post 302 or 303, but it needs revision.  My main goal is NOT to tell you how to manage your bankroll.  It's to help you pick winners. 

4) I don't know yet, I am not looking forward to the season ending. 

6) We're always gonna be working with incomplete info, plus it's sports, so it's not gonna be 100%.  Our goal is 60%.  Furthermore, i doubt it's Saudi sheiks moving these lines for the most part.  Vegas doesn't necessarily move the line for every buster betting a big bet at the window.  But they do watch the sharp bettors and move lines when they act.
 
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Posted: #523
Czech - what is your source to determine buster sides/consensus?
 
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Posted: #524
Czech,

I know you wait til end to see final lines and to post your plays. But whats looking like it could be on track for the System as of now? I already took the Heat system or not, I just think their blowing the Knicks out tonight. But what about the 2nd game? Memphis and the Under in that game? And to get it straight, since a couple games moved back a half a point late last nite and they all hit. Its the initial or early movements you put more weight on is that correct?
 
 
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Posted: #525
Everyones on the Clippers tonight... yet it moves in favor of memphis? Mean anything
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