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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Posted: #176
Bol
 
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Posted: #177
I like your style i will be following
 
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Posted: #178
kodypeter, glad to have you in the thread!

A1 same to you!
 
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Posted: #179
BOL
 
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Posted: #180
What is the system play today?
 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by bamabilly:

Good luck, Czech! I think the system will work if you only observe your rules and don't reach too far for picks that don't qualify. Just remember that the playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. The system seems solid to me, though. Again, good luck with it. I'll check back later, brother.

Guys, bamabilly hit it on the head.  It works as long as we follow the rules.  No exceptions.
 
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Posted: #182
***disclaimer - NO PLAYS YET ***

With that being said, we are looking at Utah/over and Memphis/under for potential plays.  Nothing qualifies yet though.

I am anticipating the Clips total to go back up, as literally everyone and their moms and dads and uncles are on the over.  Also they are all on the Clips. 

*This was also the case the other night when it came Mem and the under.

The Utah game can easily get disqualified simply on the basis of rules 2 and 3.  

My sharp play tonight is almost certainly going to involve the Mem/Clips game, but we will be betting any and all games that qualify and that may include the Utah game also, but so far not.
 
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Posted: #183
At this point my leans are Mem and the Mem Under.  

No system plays yet but all the info so far is pointing in this direction.  Staying patient and waiting though.
 
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Posted: #184
Spurs UNDER doesn't qualify bc it follows rule #1 but NOT rule #2... Am I correct??
 
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Posted: #185
Hey Tristans,

Thanks for visiting the thread and posting, and great pic man!

Spurs total has went up, from 198.5 to 199.5, and according to my definition this favors the over, not the under.  

So according to Rule #1 the under does not qualify, since the line moved up towards a higher total.

Also the public seems divided on the total, without a clear majority on either side, so according to Rule #2 it is also disqualified.




 
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Posted: #186
Tristans, 

You were right about it not following Rule #2, but I want to explain something about Rule #1 since a few people have confused it before. 

If a line is at 198.5, and moves to 199.5, some people see this as "favoring" the under, since the under is now a cheaper price.  

This is NOT how I look at line movement.  

According to my definition, this line move "favors" the over, since the line move indicates that the game is going higher than previously expected.  

In the case of the SA game, with public being 50/50 on the total, a line move to the upside favors the over imo, although according to Rule #2 this play is still not a true system play.


 
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Posted: #187
**disclaimer - this is an example, not the SA game**

Now, for the sake of argument, let's say Team A is at Team B, and the total is 198.5 at open, and moves UP to 199.5.

Then we do our research, and find that the public is all over the under, say 60/40.

The system play = the OVER

In order for a play to be a system play, there must be line movement in our direction, AND it has to go against the majority consensus.


 
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Posted: #188
Damn Tristans you find some good pics.

Does anyone know if www.vegasinsider.com is reliable? I just checked and it says 56% are on the SA under, and on Covers public is closer to 50/50, which imo is still a higher-than-normal concentration on the under.

For the series (Utah/SA) the under is 3-0, and every time they keep opening the total lower than the previous game and the game keeps going under anyways, specifically under 198.5, which is where today's game opened.

I would not expect this total to go up, especially if the busters are taking the under, but it has went up to 199.5.

The move is progressive and directional (Rule 1) and somewhat counter-intuitive, given the history of the series, all good indicators that it's a sharp play.  

The only problem is rule #2, which I'm not sure is really satisfied enough to make it a system play, but maybe it is.  You don't need as high of a percentage of B's on the under to take the over, as the other way around.  The reason is public usually likes overs, so when they are even slightly in favor of the under and you see line movement on the over, then the over is usually the right play.

All the line data is supporting the idea that Utah is showing up tonight. Everyone is on SA, yet the line dropped 1/2 a point to 7.5 and is sitting there all day, just like with NY yesterday.

I haven't qualified this yet, under Rule #3 because I am still undecided, but Utah and/or the over are looking like the plays.





 
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Posted: #189
utah 
 
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Posted: #190
The public is 59% on the under with the spurs game... And I remember that you need 57% public on the under and movement +1 right?
 
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Posted: #191
Alright guys here it goes: 

--SYSTEM PLAY--

SA/UTAH OVER 199.5


We have a line move on the over (Rule 1), a slight majority favoring the under (Rule 2), and I like it (Rule 3), mainly because of the line move being counter-intuitive, based on the past 3 games.  

I'm  with the SA OVER.  BOL to everyone! 
 
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Posted: #192
Wow, your right on point, it's just scary to think Utah can actually hang with the spurs, spurs have arrest shot at winning the whole thing, but maybe they play some different guys now that they have such a big lead In the series and win by 4 or 5? Great opportunity for bench who has dominated this year! 
 
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Posted: #193
Guaji, 

Thanks for posting!  

No, I still haven't worked out the percentages perfectly, but the concept is I need a higher percentage on the over when taking an under, and/or a dog, say around 57%+.

When I consider an over, however, as is the case with the SA over, I don't need that high of a percentage on the under, because 1) you don't hardly ever see that many on an under and 2) because anything approaching a majority on an under is abnormal, which makes any line movement to the over more significant.

If I see something like 53% on the under, when normally you only see 40-45% on the under, this satisfies Rule #2 in my book.  Same applies when you see these numbers on a dog.
 
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Posted: #194
Yankee,

I'm laying off of Utah.  I think the indicators are there if you like them, but I personally am laying off.  Good luck to you though if you take them, I hope they hit their shots tonight and push this thing over.
 
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Posted: #195
That's what I am thinking, for a over to hit I believe they need to be in the game not a blow out
 
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Posted: #196
Wow I see a lot of late money coming in on the over.  This is typical with the true betting public.  

I'm not convinced at all that there's a majority of actual money on the under, but hey we are riding with the over.

Adding Utah also, I think Utah actually satisfies Rule #2 better than the over does.
 
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Posted: #197
Okay brother lets do this Over it is I book has it at 199 so money for me right.................GL
 
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Posted: #198
--SYSTEM PLAYS--

SA/UTAH OVER 199.5
UTAH +7.5


We ride!!     Best of luck to everyone...
 
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Posted: #199
13-6 YTD and on a W9 streak, 4-0 this thread

Today's plays so far:

Utah +7.5
Utah over 199.5
 
 
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Posted: #200
utah is a system play?
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