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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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Posted: #4726
Bryant wants more Pau Gasol on the floor. And the Lakers play at Pau's younger brother's court. If your older brother needed a help - wouldn't you grant him?
Final:
LA Lakers +4  (-110)  220$
 
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Posted: #4727
GL to everyone posting. Including those who's game picks I'm opposing with the one above
 
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Posted: #4728
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:

I guess we're waiting for Mavin, but he only starts betting halfway through the season....

That's true, I want them to play out a bit to see how the short season is trending. But feel free meantime if you have some real good leads - to post here as well. I don't mind
 
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Posted: #4729
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

OKC was a -9.5 favorite vs Golden State at home earlier this season.  I think that means on a neutral court OKC is a 6-point
favorite and at GS, they'd be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite.

So add the fatigue issue, and isn't OKC -2 a correct line? In other words, it's not a sucker line???

 

I also think something ain't right in this line. The difference between home and away is calculated at 6 points. The Thunder were favored 10 points in OKC and the line may be should be -4. But at the same time - GS off the win against the Clips at home is a dangerous team and the oddsmaker considering fatigue factor and GS strength may be gave another 2 points to GS. IMO its a blowout game in either direction
 
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Posted: #4730
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:

To further analyze the WEDNESDAY trends, here are the numbers I have tallied for the past WEDNESDAYS starting January 2

NOTE: ATS only

JAN 2
fave to dogs 
6-6

public to fades
4-8
_____________________________________________________

JAN 9
fave to dogs
3-8

public to fades
4-7

________________________________________________

JAN 16
fave to dogs
2-8

public to fades
3-7
_______________________________________________________


That's it! Just do the math. 
 
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Posted: #4731
Quote Originally Posted by m10:

I think it is a good spot for Golden State.  That was a good win for them against the Clippers, so we can read that two ways: 1. letdown; 2. build upon.  I watched that game and saw a team that believed in itself down the stretch that helped them pull away.  I think that carries over combined with the fact they are getting OKC in a good spot.  I took the Warriors +2.

Good luck.
Do you mean by a good spot the fatigue and the let down after the Clips?
 
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Posted: #4732
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:

Calculation model - day 1 recap:
Well, what a start! Very promising begining of the experiment! LOL  ;)
Day 1: record 0-2
ORL-DET: UNDER 194,5 - loss
(by 0,5 pts.!)
PHI-MIL: UNDER 196 - loss
(45 sec. before the end of the game the score was 102-94... ! )
But nothing to worry about since we are just testing...
That game was middled by wise guys - the line opened at 197 and gradually dropped to 194.5 
 
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Posted: #4733
Quote Originally Posted by newty25:

^^ That's pretty meaningless. Show me data on 1k Wednesdays and I'll start to pay attention.

ATS is virtually half favorites and half dogs when looking at the trends page on covers.com.  That simply means these numbers should converge at some point.
One criteria per one test - that is the only way to crunch the numbers
 
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Posted: #4734
Quote Originally Posted by eaglequill:

I was chomping at the bit to get this pick in yesterday and the line at -4 for the Memphis Grizzlies is a dream come true. The way the Lakers are playing Memphis should be favored by 8 or 9 points! 
What a gift to only have to lay four points. Lakers play no defense and are up against the number 2 defensive team in the league. My money is piling up fading the Fakers! 
Howard, Nash, Kobe have no chemistry and definitely no confidence.  Until the Fakers show me something I am fading them.
Don't buck the trend!
 
LA Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games
LA Lakers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games
LA Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road

Final:
Memphis Grizzlies -4 -110  $220 to win $200
I think Lakers win outright this one and the testimony to that is a line drop in opposite the public support. Regardless, line does not move without money and the brothers playing each other is a strong enough motive to play the opposite like I did. But the fun part is that we will find out who's right at the end of the evening
 
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Posted: #4735
Here is an 8 Team Parlay from last night that included 2 picks for 2H OKC v. LAC game- 6 more to go-

$3 for $231.35

PARLAY (8 TEAMS) RR (1P-8T)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] HOUSTON PK-150 (B+2)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] TOTAL u219½-150 (B+2) 

(DENVER vrs HOUSTON)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[711] LA LAKERS +6-150 (B+2)

01/23/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

[716] TOTAL u199½-150 (B+2) 

(WASHINGTON vrs UTAH)

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[719] TOTAL o200½-150 (B+2) 

(PHOENIX vrs SACRAMENTO)

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[720] SACRAMENTO -1½-150 (B+2)

01/22/2013 @ 11:56 PM NBA

[2507] 2H OKLAHOMA CITY -½-110 ----------> WIN

01/22/2013 @ 11:56 PM NBA

[2507] TOTAL o100½-110 

(2H OKLAHOMA CITY vrs 2H LA CLIPPERS) ----------> WIN


I think that Houston made a nice comeback in the last game and may be coming out of the funk they got in. With this I also expect them to play tight defense and try to slow down the Nuggets who are coming off a big win against the Thunder.


The Lakers I am just picking because Memphis started the year out with big wins against big teams like GSW JAZZ HEAT THUNDER KNICKS LAKERS (there is talent there just no passion or chemistry) 


That being said they have gone over 100 pts twice in recent meeting and faded against the pacers twice most recently two days ago.


The Lakers showed some life in the 2H of both their last two games but have started the games in big funks down by 15 on each game at some point in the 1Q.


Washington has been shooting like they are plaing with a tennis ball on a basketball rim- I think the bigger Utah players will slow down the game.


Phoenix and Kings when they are on they don't play defense and just shoot 3pts all day- hoping for a few misses today. Kings being the home team may pull this off.


OKC was on a roll yesterday so I just picked them for the 2H and the over as Durant had a terrible 1H-

 
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Posted: #4736
50% on Under of Wizards game 50% on Over in Jazz game yet line drops from 197 194.5 hmmmmm? 
 
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Posted: #4737
dunno why i wrote game twice but I did! 
 
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Posted: #4738
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Bryant wants more Pau Gasol on the floor. And the Lakers play at Pau's younger brother's court. If your older brother needed a help - wouldn't you grant him?
Final:
LA Lakers +4  (-110)  220$

Are you picking the Lakers primarily b/c you think Mark Gasol will go easy on Pau, to make him look good and so he'll get more playing time w/ the Lakers? Or are there other factors? 

For the record, I'm on Memphis. Just read kaponofor3's thread as he says it better than I can.  But was curious for your insight.

 

 
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Posted: #4739
None of the 3 previous games between those two have ended in more than 7 points margin. Why should this one when the Hornets are seemingly stronger than in previous meetings?
Final:
NO Hornets +8.5  (-110)  110$
 
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Posted: #4740
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Are you picking the Lakers primarily b/c you think Mark Gasol will go easy on Pau, to make him look good and so he'll get more playing time w/ the Lakers? Or are there other factors? 

For the record, I'm on Memphis. Just read kaponofor3's thread as he says it better than I can.  But was curious for your insight.

 

I read the posts here but have my own opinion. I am convinced the Lakers win cover and just might win tonight. And if not - I'll be wrong and you'll be right. I don't know what that guy wrote and honestly - I am pretty happy with what people in this thread write as I respect and appreciate their time and research. Eaglequill also is siding with Memphis. But I have my opinion about the way games are played in NBA and by my notes - this is LA Lakers
 
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Posted: #4741
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

I read the posts here but have my own opinion. I am convinced the Lakers win cover and just might win tonight. And if not - I'll be wrong and you'll be right. I don't know what that guy wrote and honestly - I am pretty happy with what people in this thread write as I respect and appreciate their time and research. Eaglequill also is siding with Memphis. But I have my opinion about the way games are played in NBA and by my notes - this is LA Lakers


I'd love to hear some of your thoughts as to why LAL is your preferred side tonight in this game if you would elaborate.
 
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Posted: #4742
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:

Here is an 8 Team Parlay from last night that included 2 picks for 2H OKC v. LAC game- 6 more to go-

$3 for $231.35

PARLAY (8 TEAMS) RR (1P-8T)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] HOUSTON PK-150 (B+2)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] TOTAL u219½-150 (B+2) 

(DENVER vrs HOUSTON)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[711] LA LAKERS +6-150 (B+2)

01/23/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA

[716] TOTAL u199½-150 (B+2) 

(WASHINGTON vrs UTAH)

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[719] TOTAL o200½-150 (B+2) 

(PHOENIX vrs SACRAMENTO)

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[720] SACRAMENTO -1½-150 (B+2)

01/22/2013 @ 11:56 PM NBA

[2507] 2H OKLAHOMA CITY -½-110 ----------> WIN

01/22/2013 @ 11:56 PM NBA

[2507] TOTAL o100½-110 

(2H OKLAHOMA CITY vrs 2H LA CLIPPERS) ----------> WIN


I think that Houston made a nice comeback in the last game and may be coming out of the funk they got in. With this I also expect them to play tight defense and try to slow down the Nuggets who are coming off a big win against the Thunder.


The Lakers I am just picking because Memphis started the year out with big wins against big teams like GSW JAZZ HEAT THUNDER KNICKS LAKERS (there is talent there just no passion or chemistry) 


That being said they have gone over 100 pts twice in recent meeting and faded against the pacers twice most recently two days ago.


The Lakers showed some life in the 2H of both their last two games but have started the games in big funks down by 15 on each game at some point in the 1Q.


Washington has been shooting like they are plaing with a tennis ball on a basketball rim- I think the bigger Utah players will slow down the game.


Phoenix and Kings when they are on they don't play defense and just shoot 3pts all day- hoping for a few misses today. Kings being the home team may pull this off.


OKC was on a roll yesterday so I just picked them for the 2H and the over as Durant had a terrible 1H-

GL
 
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Posted: #4743

$1 for $492 and $1 for $189 same as below but B+2

PARLAY (10 TEAMS)

01/23/2013 @ 07:35 PM NBA

[704] TOTAL u195½-110 

(TORONTO vrs MIAMI)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[705] DETROIT +6½-110

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] HOUSTON -2½-110

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[710] TOTAL u217-110 

(DENVER vrs HOUSTON)

01/23/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA

[711] LA LAKERS +4-110

01/23/2013 @ 08:35 PM NBA

[714] SAN ANTONIO -8½-110

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[718] PORTLAND -120

01/23/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[720] SACRAMENTO -155

01/23/2013 @ 10:35 PM NBA

[721] OKLAHOMA CITY -130

01/23/2013 @ 10:35 PM NBA

[722] TOTAL u207½-110 

(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs GOLDEN STATE)


Most of the write up is on an earlier post on this page-


I will watch closely the MIAMI HOUSTON LAKERS OKC games as potential single bets on the Parlay above.


Monday did not hit over 50% yesterday I went over 50%- Trying to be consistent above 50% and then as previously stated continue to pick 2-3 games to Parlay or go straight bet.


Monday

3 of 9 $1 for 300 L

5 of 9 $1 for 17.25 L


Tuesday

8 of 10 with 2 games pending that are today WED $1 to win $642.08

3 of 5 with 2 games pending that are OPEN spots $50 to win $929.71

2 of 8  with 6 pending for WED $3 for $231.35


GL 

 
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Posted: #4744
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:

Interesting historical trends in DET-CHI game:

1. Chicago won last 16 games with Detroit

2. Chicago covered 20 times in last 24 games...

 
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Posted: #4745
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

That game was middled by wise guys - the line opened at 197 and gradually dropped to 194.5 

You are probably right.
Calc. model is using opening line (197 in this case) as a main factor. It also uses line movement but mostly as a direction, not a value. In that case bet was correct, but we have to make the play when it is most beneficial... (it was 195 right before the game).

 
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Posted: #4746
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

I knew exactly what you were doin especially when you had no SA play for 2H 
Keep it rockin Mavin 
 
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Posted: #4747
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

Why is wed a dog and fade day?

This is not a regular week with MLK day in the middle
 
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Posted: #4748
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:

hmm, you're right! nope, I'm not seeing a new trend, and if I do, I'll post 'em up quick. So far I'm posting what the numbers show. No BS. 

Hey Mavin, if you could be so kind to post the trends that you have collated long before this, (for each day e.g. monday, tuesday...) of the week), I'd be very happy to test the numbers on it. 

From the time that I had been taking notes on this trends, I have been making good fortune. Having started this Sunday, I'm 6-1, and 2-0 for two consecutive days. Last week, I was 11-3. So, hopefully, this run continues and the trends I'm tallying will help us more.

I have not been regularly posting my picks since I have a day job and capping is just a hobby for me. Just a recap my pks for today are DEN ATS and GSW ATS.

BOL TO EVERYONE. 
As I said - this is not a usual week
 
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Posted: #4749
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I'd love to hear some of your thoughts as to why LAL is your preferred side tonight in this game if you would elaborate.

I am on the lakers as well as they are part of my Parlays- may pick them on a straight bet or simple 2-3 team Parlay-

They had strong second halves is the 1h that is killing them- when you go on a 15pt hole is not a good sign for a team that does not play much defense-

On the last game the Bulls just caught fire hitting from every spot on the court- they are enjoying a nice high but they are not a high scoring team and this may come to an end quickly- The Lakers should have slowed the game down on Monday against a younger team but failed to do so and it cost them the game-

Memphis has been so hit or miss this year. If the Lakers can put up 90-100 pts they will win the game.
 
 
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Posted: #4750
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

None of the 3 previous games between those two have ended in more than 7 points margin. Why should this one when the Hornets are seemingly stronger than in previous meetings?
Final:
NO Hornets +8.5  (-110)  110$

 

Hey Mavin, Actually thought you would have been more inclined to go with the Hornets +5 for the first half. GL

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