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Posted: #7701
Heat is at it's best and Minny's defense is shaky while under maned.  

CP74 14-12

Over 196 1/2 MIA Heat-MIN Twolves
 
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Posted: #7702
lrempel 2-2

Port trailblazers -12.5

Atl Hawks +10.5

Orl Magic +8.5


Char @ Port -13

 I don't think much needs being said on this one, Port should walk away with this one. Char won't be able to put up the points tonight to hang around. In recent history Port has Beat up Char by this amount at hm, and with Char recent losses of much greater than this, I can't see this game turning out any better for them.


+10.5Atl @ Den  / under 212 

I beleive this spread is too much. Atl has played some very close games in Den since their last win there. Den does not play well on nights with 2 days rest. Seeing a low scoring battle here, the total might be way too high. Atl on no rest scoring is low, only giving up 91 pts /gm on 14 games played with no rest. scoring an avg of 5 more on 0 rest for a total of 187, Den on 2 days rest avg 107 total. So If you can see atl keeping the score down here as they do without rest and meet these 2 totals in the middle, we could be looking at a game scoring aroung 195-197? totals @ 211? Seems way off to me. Looking at the total regarding days off numbers.


+8.5Orl@ NO / over 194.5

NO on 2 day rest give up an avg 10 pts more than scoring. NO 0-3 su/ats vs no rest teams, 1-5 su/ats on 2 days rest overall. I think this one might eclipse this total



 
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Posted: #7703
@irempel

Pardon me if i cannot expound more on the logic of my picks...i just believe that since the public had a field day yesterday cashing in on top consensus picks like memphis, miami, sac and sas (with the exception of lakers), vegas would have its day today...gl...


 
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Posted: #7704
Last night I was rammed without lube. Didn't even get a good night text either. 
 
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Posted: #7705
VyperATS 8-7-1


Den Nuggets -10


Atlanta has dropped last 2 games and is on a long stretch and will be run down by Denver fast moving team....I see this as a blowout by Denver!
 
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Posted: #7706
Quote Originally Posted by VyperATS:

VyperATS 8-7-1


Den Nuggets -10


Atlanta has dropped last 2 games and is on a long stretch and will be run down by Denver fast moving team....I see this as a blowout by Denver!
he Hawks are on the road, but they may not be able to soar that high in this game. They are facing the Nuggets, in Denver and they are going to be weighted down heavily when they are facing the team. Yes, the Hawks did win the first meeting of these two teams, but you will find that was on their own court. Now they are facing a strong home Denver team who has only lost three times on their home court and this could easily help them in the win column as they are facing a weak Hawks road team.
 
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Posted: #7707

Final:

Under 196.5 MIA heat - MIN timberpups

Mia on the road wins thruogh their def and they showed it yesterday and with timberpups tired with few players Mia don't need to score lots to win.

Over 212 ATL hawks - DEN nuggets

fatigue factor over Den at home is no doubt for me to be lay ups back and fort

Over 203.5 TOR craptors - GS warriors

finally home and ready to win and gs wins on scoring big not on their D cuz they don't have D and craptors can keep up scoring.

BOL EVRYONE

 
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Posted: #7708

Final:

Under 196.5 MIA heat - MIN timberpups

Mia on the road wins thruogh their def and they showed it yesterday and with timberpups tired with few players Mia don't need to score lots to win.

Over 212 ATL hawks - DEN nuggets

fatigue factor over Den at home is no doubt for me to be lay ups back and fort

Over 203.5 TOR craptors - GS warriors

finally home and ready to win and gs wins on scoring big not on their D cuz they don't have D and craptors can keep up scoring.

BOL EVRYONE

 
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Posted: #7709
Utah 96 PPG on the road
Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.




Eryximaque 7-8

Under 201,5 MIL Bucks-UTA Jazz




 
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Posted: #7710
Add this :

Eryximaque 7-8

Under 201,5 MIL Bucks-UTA Jazz

POR Blazers -13


BOL all ! 
 
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Posted: #7711
Quote Originally Posted by Lopelpickscom:

Last night I was rammed without lube. Didn't even get a good night text either. 

Until you change your avatar please refrain from sex related comments lol it's just weird lol 
 
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Posted: #7712
Quote Originally Posted by czaqtorres:

czaqtorres 10-4

CLE Cavaliers+2.5


Knicks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

Knicks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. 

Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 

Knicks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

 

I would gladly take a well-rested Cleveland here with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters with revenge on their minds against a Knicks team on b2b and with C. Anthony having a right arm injury

 

TOR Raptors+6


I have taken into consideration the fact that Raptors are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.  Both teams with 4 consecutive losses each but I like the trend fading the team on its first home game after 4 or 5 games on the road.  Likewise, I like the fact that the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  I just hope Rudy happy won’t play as evident by the return of offense on Raptors’ loss against Milwaukee.

 

CHAR Bobcats+12.5


Trail Blazers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. 

 

Fading the public this Monday...


I just want to say something I pointed to yesterday- the stats you post as well as many others are so lobsided that one should remember the law of averages if a team is 0-10 against something at some point something has to give, while I don't know the answer I believe that at the end most things even out- if for instance if Barry Bonds its a .300 life time hitter and its at .200 1/4 or mid way through the season chances are he gets to near .300 by the end of the season- while I don't know the answer to how to use this point of view to perfection I think is something to note- Yesterday on the MIA game it has been proven before that it is very hard to sweep a good team in a season. Same goes for teams that don't cover 0-10 after b2b will it always be that way?

Am just saying don't just read the stats look a bit more into them and historical trends.
 
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Posted: #7713
was off for a couple of days, taking a short break - its amazing to see phixer still phixing the games :D GJ man keep em crushing

BOL tonight guys, 
 
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Posted: #7714
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

lrempel 2-2

Port trailblazers -12.5

Atl Hawks +10.5

Orl Magic +8.5


Char @ Port -13

 I don't think much needs being said on this one, Port should walk away with this one. Char won't be able to put up the points tonight to hang around. In recent history Port has Beat up Char by this amount at hm, and with Char recent losses of much greater than this, I can't see this game turning out any better for them.


+10.5Atl @ Den  / under 212 

I beleive this spread is too much. Atl has played some very close games in Den since their last win there. Den does not play well on nights with 2 days rest. Seeing a low scoring battle here, the total might be way too high. Atl on no rest scoring is low, only giving up 91 pts /gm on 14 games played with no rest. scoring an avg of 5 more on 0 rest for a total of 187, Den on 2 days rest avg 107 total. So If you can see atl keeping the score down here as they do without rest and meet these 2 totals in the middle, we could be looking at a game scoring aroung 195-197? totals @ 211? Seems way off to me. Looking at the total regarding days off numbers.


+8.5Orl@ NO / over 194.5

NO on 2 day rest give up an avg 10 pts more than scoring. NO 0-3 su/ats vs no rest teams, 1-5 su/ats on 2 days rest overall. I think this one might eclipse this total




While my mind is not set yet when looking at this game you have to ask yourself if the Nuggets are inspired (they have only lost 3 games at home this year, that is insane) and they start running up and down like they did on OKC-LAL can a hawks team that played a tough game against LAL late last night keep up.

The nuggets are a very dangerous team this year, they have accumulated a track team and taught them how to make a layup. That is very hard to defend unless you always keep two guys in the back court or have an OKC MIA kind of team that can and will sprint back to the ball. The nuggets have simplified the game to the point where if they keep of the pace in offense there is no way a mid court team can beat them consistently- That being said it will be up to the nuggets to set the pace- if they do it's game over, at times like against the blazzers they let up and start trying to eat some clock and that is their weakness because it allows the other team to rest and set up plays.
 
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Posted: #7715
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

czaqtorres
Are you fading the public with that line on Char? Char last 4 visits to Port resulted in losses of 44,24,11 and 14 pt losses, Port taking the spread in all those with the 44 pt loss being their last visit. Coming off the skid they are on, do you actually see them stepping up vs a squad that last beat them by 44, seeing Char is coming off straight losses by 36,30,22,14,and 30? Just curious because your only thought on the game is that Port plays bad teams badly, however this is one team that they have proved in recent years they can destroy. Are you seeing them bouncing back today after such losses and Port thinking they are walking into a runaway contest?

I think the key here is the playoff picture- the blazzers have to beat up on the bad teams if they want to get in.
 
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Posted: #7716

forgot my standing

Jpaco 5-7

 
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Posted: #7717
After a little break in the action I am back on board. Studying Petroleum Engineering in college and it is my first priority. Lots of tests to prepare for over the last week.
Anyway...I like the Bucks tonight. I think the Jazz are not too good on the road and the Jazz have some injuries to Milsap and Jefferson. Bucks are going to run so I like the over on that game too. Jazz do not play much defense on the road.

I also like the over on the Portland Charlotte game 198. I think Portland puts up 115 tonight and see Charlotte getting in to the 90's. Charlotte gives up 102 points and see them Playing better offensively tonight. Good luck everyone....

Come on Major League Baseball!!! I miss you!

Eaglequill (2-2)

 Mil Bucks -4.5

Over 201.5  Bucks- Jazz

Over 198    Portland-Charlotte
 
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Posted: #7718
Musicmatt1 10-13-1

NY Knicks -3

Under 201.5 UTA Jazz - MIL Bucks

Over 204 TOR Raptors - GS Warriors

I do not see any trends to support my pick.  This pick was based off what I learned from the Pacers/Warriors game last week.  Getting punched in the mouth is different than getting punched in the mouth and then resting.  I think the Knicks will be eager to get the taste of yesterday's loss out of their mouth.  They did not have time to sit and pout over the result against the Heat.  Put that on top of them struggling in Cleveland (which I think could be somewhat flawed stats with today's rosters), and I think they will come out swinging similar to the Warriors playing hard the following night in New York.  Call it a gut call or a gut check for the Knicks.

The Bucks team totals have noticably gone up since the acquisition of J.J. Reddick.  I personally see this game going under 200 due to Jazz road struggles (and missing players), so I was rather surprised to see the line come out over that mark.  This game seems like it will play out similar to the Saturday matchup of Raptors/Bucks.  If the Raptors did not catch fire from 3 late in that game, it would have not gone in to overtime or over the total.  All the team trends point to the Under as well.

Warriors desperately needed that road trip to end so they could go home and regroup.  Allow the regrouping to begin starting tonight.  Raptors have started scoring since the roster moves (I think Rudy only helps, and it was just a coincedence that they figured it out with him out).  Warriors like to run and are not very good at defense (although their coach is defensive minded, they just don't have the personnel at this point).  I'm going to lean on the Home trends as the Raptors are a different team then most of these stats reflect.
 
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Posted: #7719
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

Heat is at it's best and Minny's defense is shaky while under maned.  

CP74 14-12

Over 196 1/2 MIA Heat-MIN Twolves

The question here becomes the 3 ball for the wolves- lets say MIA is up by 18-20 in the 4th if they get the bench out there will they focus enough to score- when doing the totals even though I don't think it should be mandatory, Mavin can chime in on that, we should also break it down to what we think the score should be. In order for you to get to 196 what do you see heat 106 hawks 90? you know some sort of prediction that lets me know where you are coming from- (BTW the sports books break this down on the team totals to add up to the total for the game, in this game they have 103-93 Miami 
 
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Posted: #7720
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:


While my mind is not set yet when looking at this game you have to ask yourself if the Nuggets are inspired (they have only lost 3 games at home this year, that is insane) and they start running up and down like they did on OKC-LAL can a hawks team that played a tough game against LAL late last night keep up.

The nuggets are a very dangerous team this year, they have accumulated a track team and taught them how to make a layup. That is very hard to defend unless you always keep two guys in the back court or have an OKC MIA kind of team that can and will sprint back to the ball. The nuggets have simplified the game to the point where if they keep of the pace in offense there is no way a mid court team can beat them consistently- That being said it will be up to the nuggets to set the pace- if they do it's game over, at times like against the blazzers they let up and start trying to eat some clock and that is their weakness because it allows the other team to rest and set up plays.


 The nuggets are a dangerous squad your right. I'm looking at the fact 4 of the last 5 visits to Den Atl has come within that number, twice being 1 pt games. It's not like it's a place they don't play good. This year Atl is 2-0 being a dog of +7 or more, yes only 2 times they have actually been that big a dog this year. vs Mem they were +7 dog, won the game by 10 and vs OKC they were +9 dog and won by 9. Atl might be coming into this game looking at the fact that they are considered to be 10.5 pt dogs...........really they might think....ok, let's show them what kind of +10 dogs we are. I'm actually loving this game more and more, and after looking at that particular stat, even more inviting for the ml for ATL.
 
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Posted: #7721
does phixer and mavin post their picks anymore?
 
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Posted: #7722
You may be right but you are factoring in the hardest factor of them all team spirit- it is very hard if not impossible to measure the morale of a team. The other numbers do point to a close game. I just don't know if at mile high they have the strength after yesterday hard battle with Kobe and the Fakers who are trying to become the Lakers- In this as almost every Denver and Portland game, the key might be to play the 2H- 

and don't forget betting/investing is about making money not being right- that being said buy/lean the emerging trends- short/fade the overextended trends and/or wait for the reversal.

 
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Posted: #7723
Quote Originally Posted by 34dustin:

does phixer and mavin post their picks anymore?

Yes they do if you read the thread (even the last few pages it is all there)
 
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Posted: #7724
i looked a few pages back, have they posted todays yet? thanks
 
 
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Posted: #7725
Creep609(2-1)

Den/Atl UNDER 212

Atlanta playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, all on the road. Previous 3 have gone UNDER the total and none cracked the 200 point barrier. Atlanta averages 96 points in the 2nd of b2b and allows 92= roughly 188. I expect them to get gassed in Denver.
Denver avg 106 on 2 days rest and allows 101= 207.
2 of their last 3 home games have gone under since the all star break.

This game opened up @214 and 60% of the public likes the over, 80+% of the "experts" like the over, and the in depth trends are loaded with OVER stats. 

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