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Posted: #26
I m currently going through the phase you went through 10 yrs ago. Me too from india.
 
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Posted: #27
Nice going so far and I like the way you write. Was totally expecting a typical your blowhard spiel (90% winners, #1 in the land!!!! Etc) Was pleasantly surprised.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by 5dollarunit:

Cover is banning every good capper. I won't see this good Indian capper after a few days. Dude can you pls pm me your personal email I'd bhai?

Why would they do that?  Sounds strange.  It would benefit the website to have good content that attract a lot of viewers that could lead to increase ad clicks.  I'm not an expert on the dealings of Covers.com, so I'm not disputing your comment.  I just find it weird if they did that.

Good evening to you.
 
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Posted: #29
Don't get too high or too low.  Rely on your systems and habits.

Great finish to MNF, didn't work out for me.  Here's the week in review.  It's important to keep track of what you do, why you do it, and how it turned out.  You can't really keep track of your progress if you don't have something to look back on.


The Presence: Week 5 NFL Results
6-4-1 (60%)

10/11/15
Wins
GB +$500
CINCY +$500
NE +$500
AZ +$500
PHI +$500
10/12/15
UNDER SD/PIT +$500
(+$3000)

Losses
KC -$275
Under Cin vs Sea -$275
SD -$275
SD 2/Half -$565
(-$1390)

Push
TENNESSEE

Winnings: $1610

Loss Analysis: MNF, game played out almost like I thought, except Vick turned back the clock to his MNF game with the Eagles where he bombed it all over the field.  I got the under still despite the Mike Vick and Bell heroics.  Unfortunately lost on the Half time bet.


All in all, a winning week.  Gotta thank God for that.

See you guys Thursday.  Good day.
 
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Posted: #30
Great energy my friend. Keep up the positive vibes ??
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by 5dollarunit:

I m currently going through the phase you went through 10 yrs ago. Me too from india.


I'm not Indian or from India but it would be fun to visit there. If you're not having fun in life I'd suggest spending each morning working on being grateful for your existence. What it will do is clear your pent up energy (stress) and will help you to think more clearly. Other ways to do this is going out in nature or just doing a lot of deep breathing. Sounds a Lil crazy but it works. You want to make decisions from a clear point of view and not from the dark whole of depression and/or chasing wins. Hope that helps.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

Nice going so far and I like the way you write. Was totally expecting a typical your blowhard spiel (90% winners, #1 in the land!!!! Etc) Was pleasantly surprised.
Thanks brotha!
 
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Posted: #33
nice week, I will be watching.
 
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Posted: #34
 
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Posted: #35

P.O.O.R. = Passing Over Opportunities Repeatedly

If you will follow my ramblings for any period of time you will see me talk about being "present,"  or "in the moment."  If you've never thought about that before, it just means not being busy stuck in the past or anxious about the future.

The reason you want your awareness in the Here and Now, is it frees up your mind and intuition to recognize opportunities and take them.  This is a lot harder than it sounds, and for most of us it takes consistent practice to be good at it, just like anything else.

One opportunity you can take is to reflect back on the games you wagered on and examine your thought process going into the game, and compare that to what actually happened.  Take the opportunity to learn from the experience, and carry that experience to help you benefit you in the future (i.e. win money).  In this way your "losses" are not really losses, they are investments in your future.  You gained experience and knowledge for your money.  This can only happen if you take the OPPORTUNITY to learn from the experience.

To help those of you who may be new at this, or are struggling, I'm going to put down my thoughts on one of the games I lost on this weekend.  Maybe you can take that an emulate it or incorporate something similar into your routine to benefit from the "loss."

Week 5 Game Analysis:

10/12/15 Chargers vs Steelers on MNF (3.5, 45.5)

BET UNDER 45.5 ($500)

BET Chargers -3.5 ($250) and 2nd Half (-0.5, $500)

My 1 Unit bet is $500, and I place those on wagers where I am certain that I will win.  I am usually pretty good at my bets where I feel certain, and if you scroll up you will see that I hit 6 out of 7 documented picks (in reality I also hit SF and Over SF/NYG for a total of 8 for 9) on what I call my "certain" picks.  Most of my losses came on my Half Unit bets ($250).  I place those bets where I have valid reasons to believe that wager will win, but they fit the bill of games that could turn the other way based on what I've seen in the past.  So for those games I bet half a unit.  Whenever I lose a number of these half unit bets (as I did this week) I make sure to step back from them for a week or two to allow my mind to reset.

I also take the opportunity to fools all losses to see what I missed that could help me win the next time a similar situation arises.

Going into the MNF game as documented I figured it to be a low scoring game.  It played out just like I thought with the Steelers trying to run it, and the Chargers struggling to protect Rivers other than the first drive.  I said that the Steelers would be up and Rivers would have the Habits to come through in the clutch and he did just that.  Unfortunately there was still a lot of time left in the fourth quarter, and my mistake was in underestimating Mike Vick's ability to lead a 4th Quarter comeback or Two Minute Drill.  He did both things proving me wrong.  Funny I was telling my friend that as long as Vick doesn't throw long bombs like he did against the Skins in a past MNF game, I would be ok.  He got a bomb with Wheaton to get a quick TD that doomed the -3.5 and -0.5 SD bet I put in.

What can I learn from this?

Don't discount a QB that has had experience in high-pressure situations just because he is a back-up late in his career.  I did this and I lost.  I didn't play last week's Thursday game, but the same thing happened there where Matt Hasslebeck (took Seattle to Super Bowl) stepped in for Andrew Luck in a primetime game on the road and Won the game.  As far as I saw he played pretty well, much like Vick did late in the game last night.

This situation doesn't happen to often as these types of QBs usually retire than rather become back-ups, but it's something I can put in my back pocket to consider in the future if the situation arises again.

In this way I am taking a loss and turning it into an investment for the future.

If you are prone to losing, you have a wealth of opportunity to learn from.

Those losses can mean future earnings for you if you take the time to learn from them.

If you don't, you will be Passing Over Opportunities.  And remember the acronym we had at the beginning.  Passing Over Opportunities Repeatedly = POOR.

All love for yall.  Stay Present.

 
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Posted: #36

We live in a world full of opportunities.

2015 Posted Record (just started last week): 6-4-1 (60%) +$1610

The Presence: 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

#1 SNF New England Patriots -7.5 ($1500)  I give myself three 2.5 unit plays a season.  This will be the first of the year, and I usually reserve the last for the Super Bowl.  This is a golden opportunity to cash in on a gimme-line.  Don't overthink this.  Unless Tom Brady doesn't play, there can only be one result: Blowout.

Reasoning: Welcome to the Revenge Tour. 

#2 TNF New Orleans Saints +3 ($500) [will wait for line to go up before I place this bet]

Reasoning:  The Saints are an inferior team to the Falcons this season, but the Falcons have not been playing that well since Julio Jones injured his hamstring.  He hasn't missed a game but you see the dip in the numbers.  The Falcons needed a pick-6 to beat Kirk Cousins aka The Turnover Machine at home.  Yes they were going to take a dip after blowing out their last few opponents, but seeing as how they had trouble with the Giants and Redskins makes me believe that team is not for real, at least not yet.

The Saints are terrible, they have lost a lot at home lately, but I have won and lost a lot of money on Saints Home Prime Time Games and I've seen that the Super Dome crowd has a way of coming alive in a different way for night games, enabling the team to feed on their energy and play out of their minds.  The Saints may be down, and their version of "out of their minds" may not be so explosive this season, but I think they put forth a good enough effort to best the Falcons in this one.  Also keep in mind that they just pulled out a victory last weekend on SNF versus the Cowboys despite losing the previous five.

Saints have bracketed elite receivers like Dez Bryant recently to make the other receivers beat them.  I suspect they will do the same to Julio if he is healthy enough to be burning them.

Who Dat Nation gets the W.

I only have a few other games I like for Sunday.  Will post on Saturday.

 

Get your mind right.  Don't pass on opportunities. 

 
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Posted: #37
This is an abundant universe. 

If it's too good to be true, it's a gift from the Universe.

The Presence's 2015 NFL Week 6 Picks (Continued)

#1 NE -7.5 ($1500)
#2 NO +3 ($500)*pending line
[see above for rationale]

Money is raining from the sky:

#3 AZ -3 ($500)
Really? Did we see what happened to Detroit?  Did you avoid that game because you thought the line was "fishy?"  Life Lesson #202: Don't make the same mistake twice.  Possibly upping the units on this one as game day approaches.

#4 PHI -4 ($500)
Being a Cowboys fan I watch a lot of NFC East Football.  The NYG are not a very good football team, and the Meagles are getting a little better.  I really think the Eagles follow up the big win against the Saints with another route and put the nation on notice.



Keep calm. Life happens for you not to you.  
 
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Posted: #38
  BOL
 
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Posted: #39
GL
 
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Posted: #40
Your energy is infectious Presence. Thanks for the insight and time you are putting into your writings. 

Do you take any affect to your picks by analyzing line movement and public money, or does it all flow from your mind? Just curious. 

Danke
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by ct4242:

Your energy is infectious Presence. Thanks for the insight and time you are putting into your writings. 

Do you take any affect to your picks by analyzing line movement and public money, or does it all flow from your mind? Just curious. 

Danke

Hey thanks brotha.

Yeah I do take stock in fishy reverse line movements and I love looking for games where I can fade the public (based on certain range of percentage of the public on a team).  I just have seen enough games that I know that you cannot always be fading the public like a lot of guys like to do.  Also I don't fade the public just because the public is on it, that is just silly.  For example last week's AZ vs Detroit game.  People who thought Detroit stood a chance obviously have not watched them play this year. Heck I didn't watch them play, just watching their "highlights" is nausiating. AZ is a legit Super Bowl contender, as they were last year as well until Palmer got hurt, and they are out there just smashing people and yet some people were willing to take Detroit +3 based on no reasoning besides fading the public.

It didn't turn out well for them.

This week is the same story.  How many teams wouldn't you take AZ -3 against?  NE?  GB in GB maybe.  Possibly Cincy.  That's about it.  But of course people will be picking Pittsburg although there is no rational explanation that you can give other than fading the public. 

Most line movement is about hitting key numbers to offset liability and doesn't have anything to do with which team oddsmakers think will win.  So if a bettor is  only looking at line moves to pick a side he could barking up the wrong tree.

Those are just my thoughts.  But I mainly make wagers based on what I feel and have seen.  I make sure to clear as much bias as possible before I look into making the picks.  Whatever games jump out at me, I lean on, then proceed to find the stats/situations to support my hunch.  If I get enough reasons, my pick reaches "certainty" level in my mind and I go for it.


 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by KhmerATL:

  BOL

Thank you.  And you as well 808-warrior.  I wish you much success.
 
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Posted: #43
I will be on the Falcons....the force is strong in the backfield of Atlanta. 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by The_Presence:

We live in a world full of opportunities.

2015 Posted Record (just started last week): 6-4-1 (60%) +$1610

The Presence: 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

#1 SNF New England Patriots -7.5 ($1500)  I give myself three 2.5 unit plays a season.  This will be the first of the year, and I usually reserve the last for the Super Bowl.  This is a golden opportunity to cash in on a gimme-line.  Don't overthink this.  Unless Tom Brady doesn't play, there can only be one result: Blowout.

Reasoning: Welcome to the Revenge Tour. 

#2 TNF New Orleans Saints +3 ($500) [will wait for line to go up before I place this bet]

Reasoning:  The Saints are an inferior team to the Falcons this season, but the Falcons have not been playing that well since Julio Jones injured his hamstring.  He hasn't missed a game but you see the dip in the numbers.  The Falcons needed a pick-6 to beat Kirk Cousins aka The Turnover Machine at home.  Yes they were going to take a dip after blowing out their last few opponents, but seeing as how they had trouble with the Giants and Redskins makes me believe that team is not for real, at least not yet.

The Saints are terrible, they have lost a lot at home lately, but I have won and lost a lot of money on Saints Home Prime Time Games and I've seen that the Super Dome crowd has a way of coming alive in a different way for night games, enabling the team to feed on their energy and play out of their minds.  The Saints may be down, and their version of "out of their minds" may not be so explosive this season, but I think they put forth a good enough effort to best the Falcons in this one.  Also keep in mind that they just pulled out a victory last weekend on SNF versus the Cowboys despite losing the previous five.

Saints have bracketed elite receivers like Dez Bryant recently to make the other receivers beat them.  I suspect they will do the same to Julio if he is healthy enough to be burning them.

Who Dat Nation gets the W.

I only have a few other games I like for Sunday.  Will post on Saturday.

 

Get your mind right.  Don't pass on opportunities. 


This is a mistake that you have printed...I believe that the great dez bryant remained on the sidelines for that game. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by capperator:


This is a mistake that you have printed...I believe that the great dez bryant remained on the sidelines for that game. 

Not this year. You are right he was out already after Week1. The Cowboys and Saints have played each other a few times the last few years. In 2012 Dez burned the Saints for 224 yds and 2 TDs.  The next year vs the Saints he had 1 reception for 44 yds.  Last year he had 3 receptions for 44 yds.  I may have some typos, but I know my Cowboys 


Good luck on your other plays.  I like the Falcons, but I think NO pulls one out on TNF.
 
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Posted: #46
Good work!!
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by The_Presence:


Why would they do that?  Sounds strange.  It would benefit the website to have good content that attract a lot of viewers that could lead to increase ad clicks.  I'm not an expert on the dealings of Covers.com, so I'm not disputing your comment.  I just find it weird if they did that.

Good evening to you.

Oh yeah you are. You're back eh? New user name, but the "personality" you just can't hide. 

SAF. 
CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
 
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Posted: #49
Yes love the energy. Our card was nearly identical. Zona was a big one for me. I took buffalo at +1. And I will toss you a secret. When ever a line closes at 1 on any buffalo game. You're always supposed to take the road team. And if you can , buy the hook. Off the top of my head it covered 80-85 percent of the time. And it's never short of fishy even with a new coach. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

Yes love the energy. Our card was nearly identical. Zona was a big one for me. I took buffalo at +1. And I will toss you a secret. When ever a line closes at 1 on any buffalo game. You're always supposed to take the road team. And if you can , buy the hook. Off the top of my head it covered 80-85 percent of the time. And it's never short of fishy even with a new coach.


Thanks for the tip brotha. Love details like that! I appreciate it.


COPAG07, CALI007 thank you guys. Much success to you.

Also to those scrolling through I don't respond to negativity just because its a disservice to everyone involved and in my opinion can effect people's picks, thereby effects their lives. Whatever vibe you put out comes back to you, that is without a doubt true, but also if you get involved with flame wars it can bring down your energy and that will affect your body and then affect your decision making in the long run. Stay positive no matter what. It is for the benefit for all involved.

Stay Aware. Stay Present. All Love.
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