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Prospect
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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by The_Presence:




Also to those scrolling through I don't respond to negativity just because its a disservice to everyone involved and in my opinion can effect people's picks, thereby effects their lives. Whatever vibe you put out comes back to you, that is without a doubt true, but also if you get involved with flame wars it can bring down your energy and that will affect your body and then affect your decision making in the long run. Stay positive no matter what. It is for the benefit for all involved.

Stay Aware. Stay Present. All Love.

So true.  Love your positive energy and your picks, of course.  Keep up the goods.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by juz4fun:


So true.  Love your positive energy and your picks, of course.  Keep up the goods.

Hey there, thanks a lot for that.  I appreciate the positive vibes.  I hope to hit a lot of picks this week so that those that need help can have some confidence to tail me if they'd like.  I know it's only been a small sample size being only one week.  Scrolling through some of the threads I see that many aren't having such a hot start to the season, I really hope to be able to help.

That being said, I got a few more picks to add.

Couldn't find anymore NFL picks I really loved, so I peeked over at College Football and found something that jumped out at me.

Now keep in mind, I have not watched a college football game for wagering purposes in 3 years, but I happen to be 5-0 this season (undocumented, no need to believe me, I like to let my picks do the talking anyways) picking teams based on pure hunches and a little research.  So logically you would not want to tail me or anything on this pick, but if you are looking for winners, I hope to be able to help out in anyway I can going further into the season.

The Presence's 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

#1 NE -7.5 ($1500)
#2 NO +3.5 ($500)*pending line
#3 AZ -3 ($500)
#4 PHI -4 ($500)

See earlier posts for my thinking behind Picks #1-4

New Picks

#5 Stanford -6.5 (10/15/15 vs UCLA) ($500)
#6 UNDER 55 UCLA/Stanford ($500)

Reasoning:  UCLA ain't ready for primetime. 
 "That's it?"  Yeah.  Worked on Georgia against Alabama the other week lol. 

That's it for this week.  I may mess around with GB at home, but probably not.

As always I want to leave not just picks but a little value that I hope you can apply to your life if you need it.

Remember that life is about the journey, not the destination.  You could lose some games, but you still got the experience.  Some may cost more than others, but each one is invaluable if you learn from it and use it in the future.  Your losing weeks could be the only thing that can really help you win in the future.  The pain of losing should force you to analyze your steps, and correct course.  If you keep doing the same thing over and over, and expect a different result?  Well Einstein says that is the definition of Insanity.

Keep researching, keep plugging away, keep adjusting, and eventually you will get to where you want to be.

Win or Lose these next few days, Keep your head up and your mind clear.  Your day will come sooner or later, but remember, the only way to be truly successful is to DESERVE to be successful.

There are no shortcuts, you just gotta do the work.


Good luck this weekend Brothas and thank you for the support. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #53
repsect given.. gluck moe on trees myself on the who dat fellas
 
Prospect
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Posted: #54
Great advice my man. 
I need advice on whether I should be parlays? 
Do you ever bet parlays? given the percentage you hit, you would make a lot of money of parlays and actions.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by richieporter:

repsect given.. gluck moe on trees myself on the who dat fellas


Thanks brotha! I wish you nothing but success!
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by LuNaTiC_:

Great advice my man. I need advice on whether I should be parlays? Do you ever bet parlays? given the percentage you hit, you would make a lot of money of parlays and actions.


Hey what's up man. Yeah generally parlays are a bad play unless you can get them to correlate. Like for example you believe that the Chargers will cover 11.5 in GB. But as you cap that game you think the only way the Chargers stay close is if their offense gets going and the game becomes a high scoring affair. So if you were going to bet $1k on SD, and the only way you win is if it is a shootout, then you might as well bet the Over so you make (approx) $2500 instead of just $1000.

I used to do a lot of parlays when I was a new player. I was not very good at it even though I thought I was a good capper. Then when I did get good I was a bad money manager. Example: I would win 5 straight games at $100 each then bet $500 on MNF and lose all. Young and dumb. Took me a long time to get my act together. If you are just starting out and have a limited bankroll and are trying to grow it, I would not recommend parlays. Single bets give you the least risk. If you are cold then you wanna go back to the drawing board and see what you are missing. I am here to help and many others here too.

Now that I play "the right way" I can sit back and laugh at how I used to play. I would take someone's hot pick and parlay it with my cold pick and lose. It was all ego. I wanted to say I made a right pick. I parlayed thinking I wanted more money but the reality is I just wanted an ego boost. Get to know how you bet. Are you doing it just to be right? Or are you genuinely trying to make extra cash at this? It is entirely possible to make money wagering on games. I started at $20 a game 10 years ago, had 4 losing seasons before I corrected ship. I had 5 straight winning seasons and 3 seasons ago I really caught fire. I could pick games without really having to watch the teams. That is because I had seen so many games I would see certain situations repeat themselves. And the result was always the same. I.E. NE blowing out Dallas again in Dallas in 2007 and last week.

Anyways yeah I wouldn't parlay if your budget is tight, but if you are a gambling man here is one for you:

NE, PHI, Stanford (College, Thur Night), AZ (if Big Ben dont play).

****Also I typed the wrong wager on my single NE bet. I put $1250 (2.5 units) on it at 7.5, not $1500. If I have a nice Thurs I just might add some more on for fun. I smell a blowout anyway.****
 
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Posted: #57
I LOVE THIS THREAD! 

THE_PRESENCE!   THAT IS LIKE, THE COOLEST, BAD AZZ USER NAME EVER! YOU JUST KNOW THAT GUY IS FOR REAL!
AND WHEN HE USES THE THIRD PERSON TO TALK ABOUT HIMSELF? OMFG, I GET SHIVERS MAN!

AND YOU JUST FEEL LIKE, ALL THE POSITIVITY AND THE REAL DEPTH AND WISDOM IN HERE! I READ THE_PRESENCE'S WORDS, AND IT'S LIKE I TOTALLY FORGET I'M ON A GAMBLING WEBSITE! I WANT TO QUIT MY LIFE AND BECOME A FOLLOWER, YOU KNOW? 

AND THEN THOSE QUOTES! OMFG! WHERE HAVE THEY BEEN ALL MY LIFE????

"STAY AWARE! STAY PRESENT! ALL LOVE! "  

PLEASE MASTER, DON'T GET BANNED OK! I WANT TO DRINK FROM YOUR FOUNTAIN FOREVER!!! 


CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
 
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Posted: #58
  Not liking the Saints tonight, but wish you luck. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #59
I feel the Presence as well. Takes a lot of soul searching to get a handle on the action & your observations are appreciated. And since I hit my Panic Parlay and am still in the game this year - I could use some grounding.

I'll come onboard with y'all tonight.
 
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Posted: #60

looking good,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #61
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT PANERA AND REVERSE PUCKLINES?




"Bet the farm!" "GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!"
 
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Posted: #62
Presence Simply Put : THANK YOU BROTHER Sometimes we need that kick in the Butt to jumpstart ourselves. Been betting a long time and the years I won were the years I didn't overthink the game.

Thank Again


 
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Posted: #63

Good luck man!

 
Legend
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Posted: #64
Good to have you back. QH or die trying.
Article 134
 
Prospect
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Posted: #65
whats your final verdict on NO tonite? I am really leaving towards them, just a gut hunch Brees steps up tonight at home and upsets the undefeated team. They have alot to play for tonight. I see a high scoring tight game 31-27 saints.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Ganda:

I LOVE THIS THREAD! ...

AND YOU JUST FEEL LIKE, ALL THE POSITIVITY AND THE REAL DEPTH AND WISDOM IN HERE! I READ THE_PRESENCE'S WORDS, AND IT'S LIKE I TOTALLY FORGET I'M ON A GAMBLING WEBSITE! I WANT TO QUIT MY LIFE AND BECOME A FOLLOWER, YOU KNOW? 

AND THEN THOSE QUOTES! OMFG! WHERE HAVE THEY BEEN ALL MY LIFE????

"STAY AWARE! STAY PRESENT! ALL LOVE! "  

PLEASE MASTER, DON'T GET BANNED OK! I WANT TO DRINK FROM YOUR FOUNTAIN FOREVER!!! 



Haha, thanks for the love man!  I appreciate the return on positive energy.  I wish you nothing but success.


Quote Originally Posted by joe-roarke:

I feel the Presence as well. Takes a lot of soul searching to get a handle on the action & your observations are appreciated. And since I hit my Panic Parlay and am still in the game this year - I could use some grounding.

I'll come onboard with y'all tonight.

Definitely takes A LOT of soul searching. I'm glad you are still in the game, and no matter how dark the night gets, there's always light at the end of the tunnel.  I strongly suspect a Saints victory.  I'll see you here to celebrate. 

Quote Originally Posted by vc1028:

Presence Simply Put : THANK YOU BROTHER Sometimes we need that kick in the Butt to jumpstart ourselves. Been betting a long time and the years I won were the years I didn't overthink the game.

Thank Again

Yes sir.  You are definitely welcome.  Gambling took me down a dark road, but it was in that darkness that I was forced to find myself.  And though the process didn't seem pleasant at the time, I wouldn't trade it for anything now.  

As far as overthinking.  If you think about all the real big wins we have, those games are usually ones we didn't do much research on.  We were sure as soon as we saw it.  It's usually the ones where we have to go find data and opinions to convince ourselves that it's the right play that we lose.

Our intuition, when free of stress and noise, is always right.  Trust it.  Much success to you.

----

benhogan76 you're the second person to say welcome back.  I think y'all have me confused with someone else.  But if they are a positive person that loves life then they are alright in my book.  You got the wrong guy, but I appreciate the welcome.  Good luck to you Brotha! 

mikeru3 luckyly Dogjimbo and anyone that I may have missed, THANK YOU for the love.  You guys are adding to the positive energy of this thread, and helping me and others.  I appreciate that a lot.  Best of luck to all.  


JoeyTwoTimes I like the Saints tonight Brotha.  Follow your intuition, it never steers you wrong.  Thanks for your comment.  I agree on the upset.


***Side note, because I'm OCD like that.  I want to apologize for my atrociously improper use of the words of effect and affect.  I posted that response late at night lol.
 
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Posted: #67
Dang my bad on that last post.  Tried to get all the quote boxes to line up but failed.

#PrayForLamarOdom
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by jimc0911:

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT PANERA AND REVERSE PUCKLINES?





Sorry bro, I don't know what those are.  Best of luck to you.
 
Legend
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Posted: #69

Great start, you are a welcome "NEW" member here.

Article 134
 
Captain
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by The_Presence:


...

Most line movement is about hitting key numbers to offset liability and doesn't have anything to do with which team oddsmakers think will win.  So if a bettor is  only looking at line moves to pick a side he could barking up the wrong tree....


well said!

BOL




The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #71
Namaste  in The_Presence
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Namaste  in The_Presence

Thanks buddy.  Namaste 

****

barneybeans  Thank you sir.  Best of luck to you.

****

The Presence's 2015 Week 6 NFL Results - Thursday Night

Saints +3.5 (+$500)
Stanford -6.5 (+$500)
Stanford/UCLA Under 55 (-$550)

2015 Posted Record (just started last week): 8-5-1 (61%) +$2060

TNF Analysis:  Saints. SuperDome.  PrimeTime.  Party Time.  Done.

Stanford vs UCLA:  I watched like a quarter of Stanford vs AZ, just because I had dropped a few bucks on Stanford.  Same old Stanford, just running people over.  Unfortunately I did not know their RB would go for over 200 yds rushing and 300+ yds overall and take the score almost over in the first half, so I lost the under.  I got pissed off and took Stanford Pick for 2nd half to make up for the loss (undocumented so I will not post as victory). 

I mention it to illustrate not to get High or too Low.  I got emotional about the loss, correction, MY EGO got emotional, pissed off, and my ego put down money on the second half, doing about 3 minutes of research.  Keep in mind the Saints win was well in hand, I am up a bunch for the season, I have no reason to chase, other than I allowed my never-satisfied ego to win out in that moment.  Now, I happened to win, but that is not a good strategy and will eventually doom you.  Trust me, I used to do it all of the time, and it would not end well.  Even though I am well on the plus side, if I do this everytime I experience a loss, I will sooner or later end up on the negative side.

This is because high emotions, whether positive or negative, will cloud your judgment.  Some of you reading this may have just lost, a bigger amount than me, or a bigger part of your bankroll than me, and the weight of defeat may feel like it's pressing on your head.

You gotta stay even keel.

It will likely be very hard to do, but you gotta make it happen.

Notice the Tom Brady's and Russell Wilson's of the world.  Even after devastating losses, when they go to the podium to do interviews, they are always calm and collected.  These dudes are proven winners, and one of the main ingredients in their winning recipe is being able to compartmentalize their emotions and stay in the present moment.

No one thing is ever such a big deal to them.  This is what you want to emulate.

I hope these posts bring value to your game.

I hope to follow my own advice this weekend. 

Keep Calm, Carry On. 
 
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Posted: #73
Have been reading all three pages. Good to see another smart guy on this forum. Appreciate your input. Good luck this week!
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by JoeyTwoTimes:

whats your final verdict on NO tonite? I am really leaving towards them, just a gut hunch Brees steps up tonight at home and upsets the undefeated team. They have alot to play for tonight. I see a high scoring tight game 31-27 saints.

Congrats buddy. Good call.

****
suuma thanks Brotha!  I appreciate it.  Will be looking out for your threads. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Good stuff as always, man   Just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on the Packers/Chargers game's spread movement? It's up to 11.5 last I checked.  See any value there?
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