LIV Golf is once again kicking off a new season at Mayakoba but this third season should have some additional buzz after the rival tour acquired one of the biggest stars in golf: Jon Rahm.
The former World No. 1 (now No. 3) won a whopping four times in 2023, including a second major championship victory at the Masters in April.
His estimated $500M deal is LIV's biggest acquisition to date and despite some hit-or-miss form in recent months, golf odds have Rahm as a clear betting favorite this week.
We break down his chances, give free golf picks, and more in our full LIV Golf Mayakoba betting preview below.
2024 LIV Golf Mayakoba picks
- Joaquin Niemann to win outright (+1,400 at DraftKings)
- Adrian Meronk to win outright (+2,200 at bet365)
- Carlos Ortiz to win outright (+3,300 at bet365)
- Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+110 at Caesars)
- Adrian Meronk Top 10 (+163 at Caesars)
- Carlos Ortiz Top 10 (+190 at Caesars)
Picks were made on 1/31/2024 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Odds to win LIV Golf Mayakoba
| Golfer |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +400 | +475 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Cameron Smith | +1,400 | +1,600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Talor Gooch | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1,800 | +2,000 |
Odds as of January 30, 2024.
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El Camaleon Mayakoba Golf Course notes
An annual stop on the PGA Tour, El Camaleon Golf Course at Mayakoba in Mexico hosts the World Wide Technology Championship during the fall swing. Fittingly, LIV Golf Commissioner and CEO Greg Norman designed the track, and it will play host to the opening event for a second consecutive season.
El Camaleon is a Par-71, 7,116-yard course that does not play particularly long, and last year’s scoring average was 71.19. The most difficult hole was the Par-4 12th with a 4.42 stroke average, while the Par-5 fifth was the easiest with a 4.53 stroke average.
Looking at the top of the 2023 leaderboard, Charles Howell III won while pacing the field in birdies (19), scrambling (90.9%), and greens-in-regulation percentage (79.6%) Howell also finished second in fairways hit percentage (66.7%).
Additionally, runner-up Peter Uihlein ranked first in putting average (1.43) and driving distance (316.3) while finishing tied for second with 15 birdies.
LIV Golf Mayakoba picks and predictions
Joaquin Niemann to win outright (+1,400)
The Chilean finished T11 in this event last season and is coming off a strong stretch on the DP World Tour. Niemann bookended a win at the ISPS Handa Australian Open with a fifth-place result at the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship in November and a T4 finish at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic two weeks ago.
Niemann finished seventh in GIR% last season and he gained 1.13 true strokes on approach per round at the Hero. In addition to his current form, I also value his T5 finish in a strong PGA Tour field at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba in November 2021.
Pick: Joaquin Niemann to win outright (+1,400 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
Pick: Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+135 at Caesars)
Adrian Meronk to win outright (+2,200)
The 2023 DP World Tour Player of the Year won’t garner the same headlines as a number of the other additions to the LIV Golf circuit, but Meronk’s coming off a three-win season and three consecutive Top-10 finishes since December. The majority of this field hasn’t played a competitive round, let alone contended in a world-class field.
This is also a statistical fit. Meronk finished third in strokes gained off-the-tee, 18th in strokes gained approach, and eighth in birdies per round on the DP last season.
Pick: Adrian Meronk to win outright (+2,200 at bet365, 0.5 units)
Pick: Adrian Meronk Top 10 (+200 at Caesars)
Carlos Ortiz to win outright (+3,300)
Mayakoba welcomes Ortiz, and Ortiz welcomes Mayakoba.
The 32-year-old Mexican finished T7 in this event last year, and his success at the track also includes a runner-up finish, T8, and T2 in his final three trips to El Camaleon as a PGA Tour member.
Add Ortiz winning on home turf at the V Copa Prissa on the Gira De Golf Professional Mexicana (GGPM) in an OWGR event, and I expect him to have another strong showing at Mayakoba this week.
Pick: Carlos Ortiz to win outright (+3,300 at bet365, 0.5 units)
Pick: Carlos Ortiz Top 10 (+190 at Caesars)
LIV Golf Mayakoba field and favorites
No other storyline will compete with that of Jon Rahm's debut this week. The defending Masters champ is one of the five biggest names in golf and has been a dominant force during his young career with 20 worldwide wins and two majors to date.
And while he went just T37-T31-T18 during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, he played well in three DP World Tour starts through the fall, finishing fourth at the BMW PGA, T9 at the Spanish Open, and T5 at the DP World Tour Championship. He's a +400 favorite this week as a result.
Tyrrell Hatton will also be making his LIV debut this week after an incredibly consistent 2023 season on the PGA and DP World Tours in which he logged six Top 5s and 16 Top 20s in 26 worldwide starts. He's second on the board at 14/1 despite finishing T31 in Dubai last time out.
Following those two debutants is a plethora of LIV OGs. Three-time LIV winners Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, and Talor Gooch headline the next group with odds ranging from 14/1 to 18/1.
And for anyone wondering, Phil Mickelson can be had at +20,000.
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LIV Golf recent winners and odds history
Let's take a look at some recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:
| Event | Golfer | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jeddah (October 2023) | Brooks Koepka (3) | +1,600 |
| Chicago (September 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau (2) | +1,100 |
| Bedminster (August 2023) | Cameron Smith (3) | +1,000 |
| Greenbrier (August 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau | +1,400 |
| London (July 2023) | Cameron Smith (2) | +900 |
| Andalucia (July 2023) | Talor Gooch (3) | +1,600 |
| Washington (May 2023) | Harold Varner III | +2,000 |
| Tulsa (May 2023) | Dustin Johnson (2) | +1,200 |
| Singapore (April 2023) | Talor Gooch (2) | +1,600 |
| Adelaide (April 2023) | Talor Gooch | +2,500 |
| Orlando (April 2023) | Brooks Koepka (2) | +4,000 |
| Tucson (March 2023) | Danny Lee | +8,000 |
| Mayakoba (Feb. 2023) | Charles Howell III | +4,000 |
Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.
