Four current officeholders have emerged as the clear favorites to serve as vice president along current Vice President Kamala Harris as she looks to secure her party’s 2024 presidential nomination.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has emerged as the front-runner based on the latest vice president betting odds at regulated European and Canadian sportsbooks along with US prediction markets. Fellow governors Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) are typically second and third at most sites, followed by Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
There's a clear top four of Democratic Vice Presidential nominees at prediction sites and European sportsbooks:
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) July 22, 2024
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
- North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly
Most other contenders – including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – drastically trail the aforementioned quartet. Other big-name Democrats including Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton face even longer odds of 34-1 (or longer) at books taking bets.
Leading Vice Presidential contenders share characteristics
Standard political consensus holds a presidential contender looks to complement their demographic and political ideology with a running mate that expands the electorate. The betting favorites all reflect this approach.
All four VP favorites in the eyes of sportsbooks are incumbent elected officials from politically “purple” or “red” states. All have outperformed the political leanings of their respective states.
As of July 22, Shapiro is around +250 to earn the VP nomination at European sportsbooks. He is also the clear favorite at US prediction markets including PredictIt and Polymarket.
Cooper has settled into second place with roughly +450 odds at sportsbooks though he has received the most money of any contender at Polymarket. At +700, Beshear is fourth-place at Betfair, but he is the second favorite at PredictIt. Kelly is in third place at the books and fourth place at US prediction markets.
The close odds underscore the strength of all four candidates – and the massive uncertainty in the VP market a day after Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race.
Shapiro won the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race by nearly 15% points in what will be one of the 2024 presidential election’s pivotal swing states. Political pundits argue he would give a boost in one of the handful of states Democrats are prioritizing again in this year’s election cycle.
Two points:
— Ben Forstate (@4st8) July 22, 2024
1. There’s no path to the Presidency without Pennsylvania
2. There’s no more popular politician in Pennsylvania than Josh Shapiro
In his second term as North Carolina governor, Cooper has worked alongside a Republican-controlled legislature for his entire time in office, bolstering his bipartisan credentials. North Carolina has also been targeted by Democrats as a potential Electoral College pickup in recent election cycles.
Beshear has generated buzz for two gubernatorial wins in one of the nation’s most conservative states. He is the son of a popular former Kentucky governor and has been considered a potential future nationwide Democratic leader.
A Navy veteran and former astronaut, Kelly won his Arizona Senate seat in 2020 in one of the most hotly contested races in the country. He is married to former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived a 2011 assassination attempt and has been one of the party’s most outspoken gun control advocates.
Race begins to take shape
The Democratic vice presidential race has begun to take shape as Harris seems increasingly likely to secure her party’s nomination.
High-level party officials, including Biden, have lined up with endorsements for Harris. Critically, that includes other leading potential rivals to top the ticket, such as Newsom and Whitmer.
Harris is as much as a -1,000 favorite to secure the Democratic nomination at regulated sportsbooks.
Attention now shifts to how Harris’ vice presidential nominee would stack up against Donald Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance. The first-term Ohio Sen. had reportedly talked with Harris about a vice presidential debate and now seems poised to face off with her pick.
The Democratic National Convention begins Aug. 19, though certain state laws may require the party to technically declare their ticket before then. It appears the formal convention commencement will be the deadline for the party’s VP selection.
Whoever joins the Democratic ticket will face an uphill battle in the eyes of sportsbooks against Trump and Vance.
Trump remains around a -200 favorite to retake the presidency at most sportsbooks. Biden’s dropout and the subsequent convalescing around Harris dented Trump’s odds from around -250, but he remains a prohibitive favorite.
