US Presidential Election: Live Trump vs. Harris Election Betting Odds

Here’s some insight you won’t get anywhere else.

Covers is running a free-to-play pick'em contest for the U.S. election (you've still got time to enter here) and the early data suggests our readers are expecting Republican Donald Trump to retake the White House, perhaps in shocking fashion.

As of last week, 62.2% of the 596 entries had picked Trump to win the election, while the other 37.8% of players were backing Democrat Kamala Harris.

Moreover, 53.5% of entries said no candidate would win more than 312.5 Electoral College votes. The other 46.5% of contestants predicted a blowout.

Covers readers are arguably more bullish about Trump’s prospects across the entirety of the U.S. as well, as only 51.7% of entries chose Harris to win the popular vote. The remaining 48.3% picked Trump to win the overall vote share.

That deviates from what the odds at sportsbooks and prediction markets suggest. For example, at bet365 in Ontario, Trump was +300 to win the popular vote, an implied probability of 25%. Kalshi's contract prices forecast a similar likelihood of Trump winning the most votes.

The Covers contest also asks players to predict which candidate will win the swing states, and which party will take control of the House and Senate.

In Arizona, 70% of entries picked Trump to take the state. For Georgia, 61.2% of contestants chose Trump.

Nevada was viewed as another likely Trump triumph, with 62.1% of entries picking the GOP's nominee. North Carolina was predicted to be a Trump romp, with 71% of contestants backing him to take the state.

However, as you get further north in the U.S., Covers contestants begin to see things a little more competitively.

For Pennsylvania, 53.9% of entries chose Trump. Yet in Michigan, 54.7% of players went with Harris. Wisconsin was predicted to go blue as well, with 51.8% of contestants selecting Harris.

Nevertheless, most entries believe that Congress will become the domain of the GOP after today.

Approximately 65.3% of contestants believed the Republicans would win control of the House, while 64.1% picked the GOP to take hold of the Senate.

Now, I believe the people who read our site and play in our contests are some of the sharpest and tallest folks you could ever ask for; they're great, can't stress that enough, just fantastic. But are they right about the election? We shall see.

The U.K.-based Betfair Exchange had Joe Biden as the favorite to win the presidency going into Election Day 2020. This time around, political punters on the exchange are seeing red.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in an update Monday morning that £127 million has been staked on a Trump victory on the exchange, or around $165 million that's riding on a Republican win in the presidential election.

Harris has drawn £47 million from Betfair bettors who think she’ll hold the White House for the Democrats, or approximately $61 million.

So Trump remains the favorite at the Betfair Exchange. There is, however, a lot of betting and voting still to come.

“A whopping £189 million has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we’re just getting started,” Betfair’s Rosbottom said. “Four years ago, a staggering £130 million was bet in the 12 hours once the polls closed in the US, and we’re bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo.”

One of the country's most renowned political statisticians has conducted his final simulation model for the U.S. presidential election – and it's too close to call.

Nate Silver's last update, posted in the wee hours Tuesday morning, outlined that Silver ran 80,000 simulations of the election based on polling data. And in those sims, Kamala Harris prevailed 40,012 times – good for a rate of 50.02%.

Of the other 39,988 simulations, Donald Trump was the winner in 39,718 of them (49.65%), while the other 270 resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie (0.33%).

Silver has Harris holding a one-point edge in the general election polls, and has projected her to have a 76.2% chance of winning the popular vote.

Good morning!

It’s Election Day in America, and, according to some respected folks, the race couldn’t be closer. Do the odds at prediction markets and sportsbooks say the same? Eh, not exactly. Let’s take a look at the latest:

In the U.S.

In the eyes of Kalshi traders, Republican Donald Trump's lead continues to widen over Democrat Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election.

The price of Trump's "yes" contract at the U.S.-based prediction market was trading at around 59 cents this morning, up from 55 cents at the same time yesterday. Put differently, if you bought a Trump contract right now, and he wins the election, you'd get paid another 41 cents. Meanwhile, the Harris "yes" contract was going for 43 cents at Kalshi.

In other words, Trump is still the favorite to win the election among Kalshi traders, and that opinion has been getting stronger since the weekend.

The “experimental” prediction market at PredictIt had Harris as the favorite yesterday morning, with her "yes" to win the White House contract trading at 55 cents apiece. However, as of this morning, the market has flipped. PredictIt traders now have Trump as a 55-cent favorite and Harris as a 51-cent underdog.

In Canada/Ontario

Prices at regulated sportsbooks in the Canadian province of Ontario — where it is legal for online sportsbooks to offer U.S. election odds, something they can’t do stateside — have Trump as an even bigger favorite.

At bet365, Trump is -175 in the latest presidential election odds, which implies a 63.64% probability of victory. The Kamala Harris odds, meanwhile, peg her as a +150 underdog, which carries an implied probability of 40%.

More odds:

BetMGM: Trump -149, Harris +130
DraftKings: Trump -165, Harris +135
FanDuel: Trump -180, Harris +142

In the U.K./Abroad

Betfair: Trump -147, Harris +146
Ladbrokes: Trump -163, Harris +138
Polymarket: Trump 61 cents, Harris 39 cents
Star Sports: Trump -150, Harris +120

The campaigns are over. The commercials are (almost) finished. Those lawn signs can go.

It's decision time.

Covers will be on top of all the Election Day happenings as we monitor every major move in the presidential election odds race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Here's what you can expect from us as the drama unfolds across the U.S.:

• Up-to-the-minute coverage of how the Donald Trump odds and Kamala Harris odds shift throughout the day
• Breakdowns of the Trump vs. Harris odds at major betting exchanges, which are expecting to shatter records for handle
• Expert commentary from Geoff Zochodne and Ryan Butler regarding how developments from Election Day will impact betting odds and exchange markets
• More activity across our biggest election bets tracker, with both Kalshi and Polymarket expecting some truly massive wagers to come in before the results are settled
• Context, predictions and analysis from Butler on the results of five major gambling-related issues that will be decided at the ballot box

We'll have additional coverage as warranted – so join us as we provide the most detailed look at the election betting picture as news becomes available. And if you're looking to get caught up on all the happenings from Monday, you can check out our blog.