LIVE: Trump vs Harris Election Day Betting Odds: Trump a Massive Favorite

It doesn’t take an expert to tell you things are looking dire for the Democrats and Kamala Harris.

Election odds have Republican Donald Trump as a favorite of -900 or shorter and the pool of votes Harris needs to turn those odds around is shrinking.

Moreover, the mail-in ballots that were so crucial to President Joe Biden’s success in 2020 may not be so abundant in 2024.

Take Pennsylvania, for example.

It was reported last month that more than a million Keystone State voters had returned their mail ballots two weeks ahead of Nov. 5. More than 1.8 million Pennsylvania voters had requested a mail ballot, and, of those, over 1 million were sought by registered Democrats and 560,000 by registered Republicans.

In 2020, more than 2.5 million mail-in and absentee ballots were reportedly received in Pennsylvania. Of those, more than 1.6 million were from registered Democrats and 586,000 were from Republicans.

So, we potentially have a situation where there are fewer mail-in ballots from Democrats that are left to be counted than in 2020, while Republican numbers are more or less the same. Meanwhile, Trump and the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania by more than two percentage points.

In short: the Harris campaign may not have enough left in the tank.

Any question about there being a possibility of Donald Trump taking the popular vote — like the one we posed earlier tonight — has quickly been answered. It’s definitely possible. In fact, it’s looking downright probable.

Trump is now the favorite to win the popular vote at prediction markets, betting exchanges, and sportsbooks. Case in point: at around 11:15 p.m. ET, Trump was -350 to earn the most votes in the election at bet365 in Ontario. Kamala Harris had been a -400 favorite to win the popular vote at bet365 as recently as yesterday; now, her odds are out to +275.

As the election betting odds continue to tilt further and further in Donald Trump’s favor, wagering on the presidential election continues to rise.

At Betfair, approximately $302 million had been bet on the next occupant of the White House as of around 10:15 p.m. ET. At around 11:30 a.m. today, that handle was approximately $247.6 million, meaning more than $50 million has been wagered on the next president on the exchange in less than 12 hours.

At Kalshi, meanwhile, trading volume for the prediction market's "Who will win the Presidential Election?" contracts is now more than $315 million. On Nov. 1, there had been $286 million in volume for all of Kalshi’s markets combined.

The latest US election betting odds will surely result in a roar of applause at the Donald Trump election headquarters.

Trump's odds to win the election now sit at -800 at bet365. Those odds carry with it an implied probability of 90%. Kamala Harris' odds to win the election currently sit at +550.

Harris now trails on the odds board in all seven projected swing states.

Here are where the odds sit at other sportsbooks:
BetMGM: Trump -1000, Harris +750
DraftKings: Trump -1200, Harris +700
FanDuel: Trump -1400, Harris +760

However, one bettor at Stake isn't quite ready to declare the race over for Harris.

There's a long way to go in the count of Missouri sports betting ballot measure votes, but initial results are not looking good for the "yes" campaign.

With roughly 10% of the vote counted, both the New York Times and Springfield News-Leader have the "No" vote narrowly ahead. In worse news for supporters, voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas are voting against the measure; these two metros are likely essential to the bill's passage.

Again, things are too early to call, but this is not the way sports betting stakeholders wanted to begin the evening.

Virginia will have a fifth commercial casino.

With more than half the vote tabulated, supporters are up 80% - 20%. After centuries of opposition, the Old Dominion has now approved five casino resort projects in four years. 

The approval is a boon for the Commonwealth's casino industry but could be a detriment to its iGaming hopes. Cordish Group, which before the vote won the rights to build the casino, is an outspoken online gaming opponent. Having an adversarial stakeholder in Virginia's gambling business is a another potential road block in what what already a difficult process. 

A Republican hasn’t won the popular vote in a presidential election since George W. Bush in 2004. Twenty years later, can Donald Trump put an end to that trend?

Trump, after all, won the presidency in 2016 thanks to Electoral College votes, not the popular vote, which Democrat Hillary Clinton won.

The 2024 election betting odds reflected this and the 20-year drought for the GOP. For example, bet365 in Ontario had a Trump popular vote victory priced at +300 on Thursday and +333 nearly a month ago.

However, as of around 9:20 p.m. ET, Trump's odds to win the popular vote have shortened rather significantly. At bet365, they are now +162, as the early numbers for Trump have looked much more promising than they did in 2020.

All that said, Trump remains an underdog, and we are waiting on vote counts from a number of significant states.

Donald Trump’s odds to win the presidency are as short as they’ve been since the summer.

According to Betfair, Trump’s odds are down to -200 on the exchange following a good showing in a Georgia exit poll. Meanwhile, at Kalshi, the prediction market's contract prices project Trump's chances at around 65%, or -186, which is the shortest he's ever been on the exchange. Kalshi, remember, only began taking election bets en masse in early October following a favorable court ruling.

With the early results in, Donald Trump's odds are now at -250 at bet365 with Kamala Harris at +200. Seems like an overreaction to me.

The states that have been called for Trump (Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, etc.) are staunch GOP supporters so I'm not sure why that would move the barometer.

Likewise the Northeastern states that have been called for the Dems are traditional blue states.

Looks like decent value on Harris right now.

Early indications are that Republican candidates are doing better than expected. As the nation's third-largest state, Florida is an outsized prize in the election. This buzz may be helping prop up Donald Trump's presidential odds. As a Floridian, I would not put too much stock into these results.

Florida is far - far - removed from 2000 when it was decided by a few hundred votes. By 2020, it had become a "Red" state. That has only continued since.

This isn't bad news for Trump bettors. But Florida politically is not the state many remember it to be.

Looks like it could be a close one, especially in the states that matter most.

With Vermont called for the Democrats and Kamala Harris, and Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia called for Donald Trump and the GOP, anticipation is building for the swing state results.

Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes are viewed as the key to either side's chances. And, as of around 7:30 p.m. ET, the odds for the Keystone State have tightened considerably.

Betfair odds have Trump leading Harris by just two percentage points in Pennsylvania. At Kalshi, Trump and Harris are tied. Meanwhile, at bet365 in Ontario, the Republicans are -138 to win the state and the Democrats are even money.

These are considerable shifts from where the election betting odds stood even earlier today. This afternoon at Kalshi, for instance, Trump's chances of winning PA at Kalshi were nearly 57%. Now it’s almost back to a coin flip.

It sounds obvious, but the fate of a Pope County, Arkansas casino could be determined by Pope County voters - even though they are just a small portion of the voters who will decide it's fate.

In 2018, Arkansas voters approved four casinos as part of a statewide ballot measure. Three of the four were built without much pushback, but the property assigned for Pope County drew backlash that stalled its approval for years. Now, after it was finally approved and an operating license awarded, Arkansas voters will vote on preventing it from ever opening.

The 2024 statewide ballot measure has an unusual structure where a "yes" vote will prevent the casino and a "no" vote will allow it to be built. To project which way voters will decide, we will focus on the county most impacted by a casino.

If Pope County voters are against the casino (so, a "yes" vote) it's hard to imagine voters in Arkansas' 74 other counties will be much in favor. Checking the results from Pope County (should) give us a good idea (relatively) early in the evening the fate of Arkansas' fourth casino.

Support for Missouri's sports betting ballot measure will vary wildly by county. To get over the 50% statewide majority required to pass, we will be most closely monitoring the urban and suburban counties in the state's two major metro areas:

St. Louis County

St. Louis (City)

St. Charles County

Jackson County (home to Kansas City)

Clay County

Not only are these five of the six most populated counties in Missouri, but they are also key bastions of support. The state's pro sports teams are all located in these areas and have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars backing the measure. Most of the state's 13 casinos are within these metros.

If supporters can't drum up support here, it will be hard to see where else they could get votes elsewhere. The rest of the state, most of which is rural, has trended increasingly more conservative in recent decades, shifting what was the quintessential American political bellwether state into a Republican stronghold.

Politics don't always correlate with gambling support or opposition, but moral and religious affiliations do. The Republican party has made religious voters a larger portion of its base, so you can see how this growing influence could be bad news for sports betting legalization efforts.

That's why the "yes" camp will need to drum up high support levels in the five counties mentioned above. If the vote is close to 50/50 in these areas, sports betting could be in big trouble. If it's below water there, it seems impossible it passes statewide.

William Kedjanyi, the head of political content for U.K. bookmaker Star Sports, told me earlier that they have had two big bets today on the election.

One was an approximately $391,000 bet on Donald Trump to win at odds of -150, which would pay another $260,100 or so if it's successful.

The other was an approximately $91,000 wager on Kamala Harris to win at odds of +120, which would pay $109,200 or so if the Democrats hold on to the White House.

Kedjanyi added that 75% of bets at Star Sports have been on Trump, who has likewise drawn the bulk of action at other sportsbooks.

At any rate, we’ve been keeping an eye on the biggest bets for this election and have a page that’s keeping track of the major wagers. You can check it out here.

The working day may have ended for some — not us! — but the US election betting odds movements are only beginning at prediction markets and sportsbooks taking action on the U.S. election.

Those moves are not yet that noticeable in the presidential election market, which still has Republican Donald Trump as a decent-sized favorite to win the White House over Democrat Kamala Harris.

No, the shifts we’ve seen over the past few hours are in the swing states, namely, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Wisconsin, Harris odds have gone from an approximately -150 favorite to win the state to a shorter favorite or even the underdog, depending on where and when you look. Polymarket, for instance, now has Trump with a four-point lead over Harris in the Badger State.

The spread between the GOP and the Dems has also narrowed in Pennsylvania somewhat, with Trump's lead in the Keystone State down to six points at Kalshi after reaching around 14 points earlier today.

Nevada, notably, is another swing state that has seen its odds shaken up.

“Nevada - which earlier today was pulling for Trump with odds of 4/5 (58% chance), has seen the Democrats gaining ground in the last hour or so," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in an email. “The Democrats are now nearly into evens (50% chance) from 5/4 this afternoon (42%) and we are expecting plenty of movement on this key market as the night unfolds. Similarly the other six key swing states are seeing plenty of action on the Betfair Exchange with punters aware these states will likely decide the outcome.”

Arkansas voters may stop a casino from being built - even if they aren’t sure they want to.

An unusual ballot measure in the Natural State will ask voters to approve or reject a Pope County casino. A “yes” vote means no casino, while a “no” vote means keep the casino. Supporters are publicly worried the wording will increase opposition, even from those who would like to keep it.

The measure would not only strip Pope County of its previously approved casino but require any future casino to have to pass a local referendum. That extra step complicates what is already a controversial push in conservative Arkansas and could mean that the state settles for its three completed casinos for the foreseeable future.

This could also prevent a fourth online sportsbook and potentially even iCasino.

The three existing brick-and-mortar properties all offer mobile sportsbooks. Stakeholders are considering working to get permission to open online slots and table games as well. A fourth property would be poised to join that trio, potentially giving Arkansas bettors another wagering option.

I predict, partially because of the ballot measure’s wording, that hope ends for 2025 – and years to come.

Your guess is as good as mine on this one.

Trading in shares of Truth Social-owner Trump Media & Technology Group was halted twice on Election Day after a rise and then a big fall in the company's stock price. Overall, the stock was down around 1% as of Tuesday's close.

“Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.

So that’s something. Trump Media was a "meme" stock heading into the election, a bet by traders that another Trump presidency would give the company a boost.

Whatever the cause of the latest ups and downs, it looks like volatility wasn’t limited today to election betting odds and markets.

A new brick-and-mortar gambling establishment could be a major roadblock for Virginia’s online gaming future.

I predict voters in Petersburg, Virginia will approve a massive casino and entertainment center, the fifth such facility approved the Commonwealth since 2020. Unlike nearby Richmond, civic leaders and community members seem to favor the project.

That will mean another gambling destination in the Old Dominion. And an iGaming opponent will have a greater say in the Commonwealth’s gambling future.

Cordish Group, which already won the bid to the project, has opposed online slots and table games. The company’s opposition helped tank iGaming legislation in neighboring Maryland. Operating a casino gambling property in Virginia will make it a powerful voice should lawmakers consider iGaming bills of their own.

Online casino gaming was an uphill political battle to begin with. Cordish could help stop the fight before it begins.

A peek at the US election betting odds will tell you more or less what you need to know at this point: It’s looking good for Donald Trump and the Republicans, at least in the hearts and minds of bettors.

As expected, wagering is picking up at prediction markets, exchanges, and sportsbooks as the voting continues in the U.S. On the U.K.-based Betfair Exchange, for example, wagering on the election has now surpassed £200 million, or $260 million.

“The vast majority of money staked on the Betfair Exchange, the UK’s leading political bets platform, has gone on a Donald Trump win – more than £130m compared to around £50m on Kamala Harris,” the bookmaker said Tuesday afternoon of the biggest election bets.

Other moves in the market also suggest punters think a good night is in store for the GOP.

At any rate, here’s where the odds for the presidential election stand at around 3 p.m. ET on Election Day:

In the U.S.

Kalshi: Trump 57%, Harris 43%
Interactive Brokers: Trump 58%, Harris 42%
PredictIt: Trump 54 cents, Harris 50 cents

In Canada/Ontario

bet365: Trump -175, Harris +150
BetMGM: Trump -164, Harris +135
DraftKings: Trump -175, Harris +145
FanDuel: Trump -180, Harris +148
PlayNow (B.C., Manitoba, Saskatchewan): Trump -147, Harris +110

Abroad/In the U.K.

Betfair: Trump -161, Harris +160
Ladbrokes: Trump -163, Harris +138
Polymarket: Trump 61.1%, Harris 39%
Star Sports: Trump -167, Harris +138

A Statehouse status quo could actually help Minnesota finally achieve legal sports betting.

Political consensus is that the Democrat-aligned Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party will keep its one-seat edge in the Senate after this cycle’s lone race. The House is more difficult to handicap, but national trends seem to point toward continued DFL control.

Kamala Harris’ projected electoral strength in the Midwest, bolstered last week by a surprisingly strong poll in neighboring Iowa, could help drive up the DFL vote. Adding Gov. Tim Walz to the ticket will likely be another boost. Though national elections can’t determine state-level races, a wave of DFL enthusiasm at the top of the ticket seldom hurts the party’s candidates further down.

If the DFL keeps the Senate and House (it will keep the governor’s office regardless who wins the presidency), the much-debated push for legal sports betting will be streamlined. Both sides acknowledge they need the other’s support to bring legal sportsbooks, but having one party control both chambers - instead of the chaos of split houses - makes things a bit easier. 

It also puts things on better footing for the DFL-backed plan that gives state Native American gaming tribes control over mobile sportsbooks. The tribes have pulled support for any legislation that doesn’t give them what they consider promised exclusivity; having a tribal-centric sports betting model from the DFL helps make this happen.

To quote Jacobim Mugatu: I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

It’s become clear (at least to me) that we are going to have some kind of a reckoning after this election about the role betting markets played in the result, even if the answer is “none.”

But don't take my word for it, here's a Bloomberg headline from yesterday: "Election Gambling Markets Face Their Moment of Truth."

So, and maybe this is an oversimplification, if Trump wins, people will say the markets were “right,” as they tilted in his favor. However, if Harris wins, people will say the markets were “wrong,” because she was the underdog.

If that’s the case, I think that’s the absolute wrong way to think about any of this.

The markets won’t have been wrong. The markets are accurate, insofar as they are telling you how people are betting on the election.

Let me put this in a different context.

Give or take a few points, the US election betting odds were somewhere along the lines of 60/40 or 55/45 in Trump’s favor yesterday. Using American sports betting odds, then, Trump was a favorite in the range of -122 to -150. Harris was an underdog of +122 to +150.

Now, on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers were underdogs of around +275 against the New Orleans Saints at kickoff, or an implied probability of almost 27%. In other words, the Panthers were a longer shot to win on Sunday than Harris is to win the election today (or whenever it gets settled).

So the betting markets were suggesting that Carolina would most likely lose. Why would anyone think about betting on the Panthers at such long odds then? Why would fans even watch the game?

But — gasp — the Panthers won.

That’s crazy, right? What were the markets thinking? Is it time to call all NFL bookmakers into the principal’s office for a real talking-to?

No, it’s not.

The Panthers were such big underdogs because that’s what bookmakers thought they should be based on what they’d seen and heard up to that point. This opinion was then reinforced by the bets that were placed and the information that was gleaned from injury reports and other news throughout the week. Bettors utilized the same information for their bets.

At Pinnacle, arguably one of the sharpest sportsbooks going, the Panthers opened as underdogs of +210. Their odds then lengthened throughout the week until they hit +276 about 15 minutes before the game began.

Is Pinnacle being condemned as some vehicle for mass football manipulation? No, it isn't, and it shouldn’t. Pinnacle was accurate. There was a chance that Carolina would win and that indeed came to pass.

Also, if somebody was trying to influence opinion on the game by betting a ton on New Orleans, nudging the odds further and further in the Saints' favor, that would have been a costly and failed attempt at manipulation.

Prediction markets are somewhat different in that they didn’t set the odds one day with Trump or Harris favored — as sportsbooks do with football and elections where they are allowed to take action — but it is still bettors who are driving the prices up and down.

“Trump is high in the markets simply because he has more support,” Kalshi’s blog noted recently. “The number of people betting on Trump is ~1.5x the amount of Harris bettors, and the overwhelming majority of states have more directional bettors who believe in a Trump victory than Harris.”

What the prediction markets show now is how people are and have been betting.

At sportsbooks in Canada and the U.K., the "have" in the previous sentence is particularly important. Trump has been a candidate for president longer than Harris has, and so there has been a wider window in which to wager on him. That means it's very likely there's just more money on him at those shops.

But based on betting, prediction markets also present a picture of how bettors think the election will go; it's their predictions, not Kalshi's or Polymarket's or any other market. It’s also not a poll that tells you how voters are thinking of voting.

All we’re really talking about here is what bettors are predicting. They may be right or they may be wrong. They may be trying to deceive or they may just be gravely mistaken.

But, as they say in football, that’s why you play the game. Voters decide elections, not bettors, just as players (and, well, referees) decide football games. Harris has a chance to win the election and she very well could, even if her odds are not as rosy as Trump's at the moment.

"These markets are designed to reward people who accurately predict the outcome of an event, and financially punish traders who are wrong," Terry Oldreal wrote recently for Kalshi. "So if you think the Harris price is inaccurate, stop running your mouth, and make a trade!"

To close, if we’re going to have some kind of moment of reflection about the effect of prediction markets and election odds, let’s maybe start with rethinking how we communicate what those markets are to the broader public.

When all the votes are tallied, we’ll see if bettors were right or wrong. The markets, however, were right all along.

Texas sports betting and casino gambling legalization was facing an uphill climb in 2025. I think this year’s elections will make things even more difficult.

Incumbent Texas state Sen. Morgan Lamantia won one of the closest races not just in Texas, but in the country, in her last campaign. This means that virtually any race would be a toss-up.

Her opponent, businessman Adam Hinojosa, has campaigned on Christian and family values and conservative political stances. In a region, state and country where Democratic policies around immigration, are facing widespread scrutiny, I believe his campaign as a strong conservative will resonate in this South Texas state Senate district.

Hinojosa in the statehouse would also complicate Texas gambling efforts. Republicans, led by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, have blocked any new gambling legislation from receiving a vote. Though Patrick has reportedly told lobbyists he would bring gambling votes to the floor if he has majority support of the Republican caucus, this will not be achieved easily.

More than half of Senate Republicans have already taken outspoken anti-gambling positions. Hinojosa hasn’t talked much about gambling or sports betting, but I’d expect him to join his new colleagues.

Assuming he wins, that means there needs to be 11 Republican supporters instead of 10, an even more daunting challenge on an endeavor that had slim odds to begin with.

In a development that seemed unthinkable only a few years ago, Missouri's major professional sports teams are encouraging voters to approve a ballot measure that would allow them to open sportsbooks within their respective stadiums.

MLB's St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs, the NHL's St. Louis Blues, the NFL's Kansas City Chiefs, MLS' St. Louis SC, and the NWSL's Kansas City Current have come out with ads in local newspapers as part of a final push to get voters to approve the retail and online sports betting referendum.

Most of those teams also contributed $333,000 to a last-minute marketing campaign that they hope will sway voters to approve the measure. That comes along with an ad featuring former Kansas City Chiefs legend Tony Gonalez.

If approved, Missouri would be one of the first states with in-stadium sportsbooks. The six teams, as well as the state's six casino operators, could also partner with mobile sportsbooks for statewide betting.

Legal sports betting may not be a financial boon for the teams, but owners believe a dedicated sportsbook will attract bettors to their arenas and stadiums on days with games.

This final advertising blitz and financial commitment may be more victory lap than Hail Mary. Prior polls show more votes supported sports betting in Missouri than opposed it. Meanwhile, the group funding the opposition campaign has pulled back on its own advertising campaign. 

Despite a well-funded opposition campaign from a sportsbook operator, I project Missouri bettors will have legal sportsbooks this time next year.

High-level polling has shown roughly 50% support, 25% opposition, and 25% undecided. Assuming those numbers are accurate, it would only take a small portion of the undecideds to push this over the finish line.

And while Caesars has spent millions to defeat this measure, DraftKings and FanDuel have spent tens of millions. The “yes” campaign’s ads, most of which feature Missouri teachers and focus on the tax benefits for public education, are far more prevalent than the “no” camp. 

Plus, every state (except California) that has had a simple yes/no sports betting vote has approved it. Missouri has become more conservative, but it has had casinos for several decades and is more supportive than some other Red states.

It could be close, but I expect the Missouri sports betting ballot measure to pass.

The 2024 presidential race is getting a star-studded boost after Lady Gaga performed “God Bless America” at a Kamala Harris rally in Pennsylvania on the eve of Election Day.

As the polls open for the 47th presidential election, celebrities on both sides of the political coin have shared their endorsements, which could encourage undecided fans to vote and tilt the presidential election odds.  

Madonna recently shared on Instagram that she jetted home from Paris just to cast her vote for Harris, while Beyonce made a rare political appearance to support Harris at a pro-abortion rally in Texas. On the flip side, podcaster Joe Rogan and YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul are throwing their support behind Trump. 

Read the full article here.

No one wants to play favorites here, but it’s widely agreed that the presidential election will come down to a handful of swing states, the election betting odds for which are already starting to get a bit chaotic.

So away we go.

Let’s start with Nevada. As of only minutes ago, Democrat Kamala Harris' odds of winning the Silver State have improved amid favorable voter turnout numbers.

At Kalshi, Harris' contract prices forecast her likelihood of winning Nevada at around 53%, while Donald Trump's chances have slid to 47% or so. Trump’s odds on the prediction market to win Nevada had reached as high as 65% last week.

In Ontario, bet365 had the Republicans at -125 to win Nevada and its six Electoral College votes as of around noon ET. The Democrats were priced at -110 to win the state.

The Nevada numbers have yet to take a big bite out of Trump's lead on the overall oddsboard, though. Both Kalshi and bet365 still have the Republican priced as the favorite to win the White House, at odds of around -127 and -163, respectively.

What’s more, Trump’s lead in other swing states looks to be holding strong, at least so far.

Betfair's odds for Nevada have taken a turn toward Harris, as her projected likelihood on the exchange of winning the state went from 43% at around 11:30 a.m. ET to 51% about an hour later.

However, before the Nevada movement, Betfair said Trump's odds to win the presidency had "dramatically" shortened to around -160 on the exchange as the GOP's prospects began looking rosier in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

“The Republicans are now 2/7 [78% chance] to win in Arizona and 5/7 [58% chance] in Pennsylvania,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in an emailed update. “Trump’s odds have shortened in both states in the last few hours. He is ahead in five of the seven swing states.”

In an effort to appeal to young male voters ahead of Election Day, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has teamed up with NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson to launch new commercials comparing the presidential candidates like an overview of two sports teams clashing.

During the commercial, Johnson says, "Let’s break down Kamala’s economic plan. She has a plan to cut taxes for over 100 million Americans. Now, let’s look at the other guy. He’s a failed businessman, plain and simple. It’ll jack up prices, which means you’ll pay more for pretty much everything. Kamala’s plan is pro-business, pro-entrepreneur and pro-America. That’s why I’m backing Kamala in this election, and I hope you’ll do the same."

The campaign appears on several prominent sports news and entertainment sites, such as Yahoo Sports and DraftKings. Additionally, the ads appear on sites popular with young males through connections to video games like Fandom and IGN. The Harris-Johnson ad is the first political commercial to appear on DraftKings before the election.

The latest presidential election odds on DraftKings have Donald Trump as a hefty -165 favorite, while the Kamala Harris odds sit at +135.

Read the full article here.

Though the race for president may not be called tonight, there's a good chance that most if not all of the major gambling-related ballot measures and state-level elections that could shape the industry will be determined by midnight Eastern time.

Here are some poll closing times for the key elections (all times Eastern):

Virginia casino - 7 p.m.: Only registered voters in the city of Petersburg will determine if Virginia approves its fifth commercial casino. The small electorate should make this one of the first elections called nationally.

Missouri sports betting, Lake of the Ozarks casino - 8 p.m.: Statewide races, these will take longer to track. Missouri will also have most of its ballots cast on Election Day (instead of prior to it), which may delay things a bit. But Missouri should have a quick turnaround in the hours after polls close, meaning the vote totals could be done by midnight. 

Texas state Senate - 8 p.m.: A lone competitive Senate race that could further complicate Texas's chances to approve legal gambling is expected to be close, meaning it may take a while for the race to be called officially. Still, the limited voter pool for a solitary Senate district means it may not take long to tabulate the votes.

Arkansas casino rejection - 8:30 p.m.: A statewide vote to reject or maintain a Pope County casino could generate another close vote, but Arkansas seems poised to have a determination on the outcome relatively quickly.

Minnesota legislature - 9 p.m.: The lone state Senate race should be determined early in the night, but all 134 seats of the House are on the ballot. At stake is majorities in both chambers and a potential new roadblock for legal sports betting. Party control may not be determined until most if not all House races are called, setting this to be the last race determined after Election Day.

Here’s some insight you won’t get anywhere else.

Covers is running a free-to-play pick'em contest for the U.S. election (you've still got time to enter here) and the early data suggests our readers are expecting Republican Donald Trump to retake the White House, perhaps in shocking fashion.

As of last week, 62.2% of the 596 entries had picked Trump to win the election, while the other 37.8% of players were backing Democrat Kamala Harris.

Moreover, 53.5% of entries said no candidate would win more than 312.5 Electoral College votes. The other 46.5% of contestants predicted a blowout.

Covers readers are arguably more bullish about Trump’s prospects across the entirety of the U.S. as well, as only 51.7% of entries chose Harris to win the popular vote. The remaining 48.3% picked Trump to win the overall vote share.

That deviates from what the US election betting odds at sportsbooks and prediction markets suggest as Election Day kicks off. For example, at bet365 in Ontario, Trump's odds were +300 to win the popular vote, an implied probability of 25%. Kalshi's contract prices forecast a similar likelihood of Trump winning the most votes.

The Covers contest also asks players to predict which candidate will win the swing states, and which party will take control of the House and Senate.

In Arizona, 70% of entries picked Trump to take the state. For Georgia, 61.2% of contestants chose Trump.

Nevada was viewed as another likely Trump triumph, with 62.1% of entries picking the GOP's nominee. North Carolina was predicted to be a Trump romp, with 71% of contestants backing him to take the state.

However, as you get further north in the U.S., Covers contestants begin to see things a little more competitively.

For Pennsylvania, 53.9% of entries chose Trump. Yet in Michigan, 54.7% of players went with Harris. Wisconsin was predicted to go blue as well, with 51.8% of contestants selecting Harris.

Nevertheless, most entries believe that Congress will become the domain of the GOP after today.

Approximately 65.3% of contestants believed the Republicans would win control of the House, while 64.1% picked the GOP to take hold of the Senate.

Now, I believe the people who read our site and play in our contests are some of the sharpest and tallest folks you could ever ask for; they're great, can't stress that enough, just fantastic. But are they right about the election? We shall see.

The U.K.-based Betfair Exchange had Joe Biden as the favorite to win the presidency going into Election Day four years ago. This time around, political punters on the exchange are seeing red.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in an update Monday morning that £127 million has been staked on a Trump victory on the exchange, or around $165 million that's riding on a Republican win in the presidential election.

Harris has drawn £47 million from Betfair bettors who think she’ll hold the White House for the Democrats, or approximately $61 million.

So Trump remains the favorite at the Betfair Exchange. There is, however, a lot of betting and voting still to come.

“A whopping £189 million has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we’re just getting started,” Betfair’s Rosbottom said. “Four years ago, a staggering £130 million was bet in the 12 hours once the polls closed in the US, and we’re bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo.”

One of the country's most renowned political statisticians has conducted his final simulation model for the U.S. presidential election – and it's too close to call.

Nate Silver's last update, posted in the wee hours Tuesday morning, outlined that Silver ran 80,000 simulations of the election based on polling data. And in those sims, Kamala Harris prevailed 40,012 times – good for a rate of 50.02%.

Of the other 39,988 simulations, Donald Trump was the winner in 39,718 of them (49.65%), while the other 270 resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie (0.33%).

Silver has Harris holding a one-point edge in the general election polls, and has projected her to have a 76.2% chance of winning the popular vote.

Good morning!

It’s Election Day in America, and, according to some respected folks, the race couldn’t be closer. Do the odds at prediction markets and sportsbooks say the same? Eh, not exactly. Let’s take a look at the latest:

In the U.S.

In the eyes of Kalshi traders, Republican Donald Trump's lead continues to widen over Democrat Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election.

The price of Trump's "yes" contract at the U.S.-based prediction market was trading at around 59 cents this morning, up from 55 cents at the same time yesterday. Put differently, if you bought a Trump contract right now, and he wins the election, you'd get paid another 41 cents. Meanwhile, the Harris "yes" contract was going for 43 cents at Kalshi.

In other words, Trump is still the favorite to win the election among Kalshi traders, and that opinion has been getting stronger since the weekend.

The “experimental” prediction market at PredictIt had Harris as the favorite yesterday morning, with her "yes" to win the White House contract trading at 55 cents apiece. However, as of this morning, the market has flipped. PredictIt traders now have Trump as a 55-cent favorite and Harris as a 51-cent underdog.

In Canada/Ontario

Prices at regulated sportsbooks in the Canadian province of Ontario — where it is legal for online sportsbooks to offer U.S. election odds, something they can’t do stateside — have Trump as an even bigger favorite.

At bet365, Trump is -175 in the latest presidential election odds, which implies a 63.64% probability of victory. The Kamala Harris odds, meanwhile, peg her as a +150 underdog, which carries an implied probability of 40%.

More odds:

BetMGM: Trump -149, Harris +130
DraftKings: Trump -165, Harris +135
FanDuel: Trump -180, Harris +142

In the U.K./Abroad

Betfair: Trump -147, Harris +146
Ladbrokes: Trump -163, Harris +138
Polymarket: Trump 61 cents, Harris 39 cents
Star Sports: Trump -150, Harris +120

The campaigns are over. The commercials are (almost) finished. Those lawn signs can go.

It's decision time.

Covers will be on top of all the Election Day happenings as we monitor every major move in the presidential election odds race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Here's what you can expect from us as the drama unfolds across the U.S.:

• Up-to-the-minute coverage of how the Donald Trump odds and Kamala Harris odds shift throughout the day
• Breakdowns of the Trump vs. Harris odds at major betting exchanges, which are expecting to shatter records for handle
• Expert commentary from Geoff Zochodne and Ryan Butler regarding how developments from Election Day will impact betting odds and exchange markets
• More activity across our biggest election bets tracker, with both Kalshi and Polymarket expecting some truly massive wagers to come in before the results are settled
• Context, predictions and analysis from Butler on the results of five major gambling-related issues that will be decided at the ballot box

We'll have additional coverage as warranted – so join us as we provide the most detailed look at the election betting picture as news becomes available. And if you're looking to get caught up on all the happenings from Monday, you can check out our blog.