The rested Los Angeles Angels head to Minute Maid Park in a big three-game series with the Houston Astros. Both teams are looking to move up in the AL West, but it’s a tough spot for Reid Detmers and the visitors in Justin Verlander’s return to Houston, where the Astros are -180 favorites in the MLB odds with a total of 8.5.
With the Astros healthy on offense and already tagging Detmers twice this year, is Friday's matchup going to be any different for the L.A. lefty who is projected to not reach the 15-out mark?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Astros on Friday, August 11.
Angels vs Astros odds
Angels vs Astros predictions
Reid Detmers has a tough matchup today vs. the Astros and is coming off a seven-run outing in his last start. He's gotten more than 15 outs just once over his last five games, and his Under 16.5 outs is showing a ton of value today. It’s even better when you can add Caesars’ 25% profit boost.
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THE BAT is projecting just 14.6 outs today vs. an offense that has Yordan Alvarez back and has already hit Detmers hard over two meetings this year. The Angels lefty has made two starts vs. the Astros and has allowed four runs in each match.
It’s a tough lineup to navigate and with the day off yesterday, the L.A. bullpen is rested and ready. With so much on the line for the Halos, Phil Nevin could be even quicker to make the call to the pen today if Detmers struggles early. His walks can be an issue and may drive up that pitch count. He has 41 free passes over 105 innings, and has five walks over the two meetings with Houston.
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My best bet: Reid Detmers Under 16.5 outs (-123 at Caesars, boosted to +107)
Angels vs Astros same-game parlay
Detmers Over 2.5 earned runs
Verlander Over 6.5 strikeouts
Tucker Over 0.5 RBI
There are no more out markets available in bet365 SGPs, but Detmers' Over 2.5 earned runs projects just as good at 3.11, per THE BAT.
Justin Verlander hasn't been a K-heavy pitcher this year, but he has a great matchup vs. one of the highest K% teams in baseball right now. The vet likely will pitch with a ton of adrenaline. He should also see 100-plus pitches today.
Kyle Tucker is hitting in the cleanup spot, is batting .347 vs. Detmers over 14 at-bats, and has 10 RBI over his last seven games. He currently sits fourth in the league in RBI with 84.
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Angels vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Angels have dropped seven of their last 10 games, are quickly fading in the playoff race, and now have to go into Minute Maid Park and face a healthy Houston offense. They also have to see some guy named Justin Verlander who will be returning to a king’s welcome as he makes his first home start for the Astros since being acquired at the deadline.
The Halos offense is nothing special outside of Shohei Ohtani and is averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 10 contests with one of the worst K% in baseball at 28%. Mickey Moniak has cooled off with a .160 average in his last seven games, Luis Rengifo is still in the leadoff spot, and there is just a lot of swing-and-miss in this lineup.
Despite the advantages the Astros have on offense and pitching, bettors have moved the Astros from -200 to -180. I won’t be betting against Houston today, especially in Verlander’s return to Minute Maid, but I'm also not racing out to get this moneyline at its current price or even the plus-money run line.
The Houston offense has the best matchup tonight vs. Detmers, who it has already tagged for eight runs over 11 innings (two starts) this season. Detmers is also coming off a seven-run outing vs. Seattle, and the lefty has recorded just one quality start since the beginning of July.
There has been a slight 10-point move to the Over 8.5 since opening, and I think it will be the Astros’ offense doing the heavy lifting for this total. Jose Abreu is questionable but Alvarez is back and healthy, and this is now a lineup that doesn’t have to play Martin Maldonado with catcher Yainer Diaz raking.
I’m already on Detmers’ Under 16.5 outs and like his Over 2.5 earned runs at -125, but if you’re looking for the best side or total here, I think it’s the Houston team total Over 4.5. In the two games that Detmers has faced Houston, the Astros have combined for 18 runs.
Verlander looked good in his first game back with Houston, but there is likely a ton of adrenaline with the return, which scares me off taking the Astros with heavy juice on the moneyline or the run line at +115.
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Trend to know
The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros
Angels vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, August 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports West, AT&T Houston |
Starting pitchers
Reid Detmers (2-8, 4.78 ERA): Detmers is making his 21st start of the season and has a 131:41 K:BB rate over his 105-plus innings with 15 home runs allowed. He’s allowed eight runs over 11 innings (two starts) vs. the Astros this season and has a 7.45 ERA since the beginning of July. He’s recorded more than 15 outs in just one of his last five starts. The Angels are 7-13 SU when Detmers starts, and THE BAT is projecting 89 pitches, 14.6 outs, 5.13 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs.
Justin Verlander (6-6, 3.11 ERA): Verlander will be making his second start since being traded and his first back at Minute Maid Park. He went seven innings of two-run ball in his last start and has an 85:33 K:BB rate on the season over 101-plus innings with 10 home runs. His team is 8-9 SU when he starts this season, and THE BAT projects 106 pitches, 19.8 outs, 7.25 strikeouts, and 2.65 earned runs.
