With this being likely my final MLB player props article of the season, we must salute our favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI bets. Thank you for the bet that keeps on giving, and I'm hoping it comes through for us one more time this season when the Blue Jays take on the Marlins.
Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres continue their surge to the postseason. Those MLB picks highlight my favorite player props for Saturday, Sept. 28.
MLB props for September 28
- Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+135 at bet365)
- Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+195 at bet365)
- Garcia over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
What a comeback season for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Toronto Blue Jays star first baseman has spent much of 2024 bashing the covers off of baseballs. He has just a few more chances to do that, including this afternoon at the Rogers Centre against the visiting Miami Marlins.
And anyone who has followed my MLB props picks or Blue Jays best bets knows we've made a killing when it comes to his RBI props this season.
Vladdy is once again one of the premier run producers in baseball and enters this game hitting .326 with a .947 OPS, 30 home runs, and 103 RBI. That includes driving in another run in last night’s loss, and now he's logged an RBI in 12 of his last 22 games.
This afternoon, Guerrero will dig in against Miami right-hander Xzavion Curry, who will make his first (and last?) start as a member of the Marlins. Curry made a handful of starts for the Guardians earlier in the season but has primarily been used as a long reliever for Miami.
The numbers haven’t been great either way. Curry’s expected ERA is sitting at 5.56, with an opponent expected batting average of .287. Those would both rank in the Bottom 10% among MLB pitchers if he qualified. Vladdy has also been more dangerous against right-handers this season, getting to them for a .329 average and a .942 OPS.
Additionally, Curry probably doesn’t pitch much more than four innings. That means plenty of work for a Marlins bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA this month. I love the value with Vladdy to get at least one more RBI this season. Now, all the Blue Jays need to do is sign him to an extension.
Prop bet #2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
The San Diego Padres are surging toward the postseason and Fernando Tatis Jr. is a big reason why. It’s not a coincidence the Padres star outfielder’s return to the lineup overlapped with this surge. Tatis missed more than two months with an injury, and after shaking off some rust, he looks like his dangerous self at the plate again.
He's hitting .307 with a 1.067 OPS, including seven home runs and 12 RBI over his last 15 games. He's also driven in at least one run 10 times during that 15-game stretch, and I can’t believe the MLB odds we're getting for him to drive in another tonight.
Tatis and his teammates will face off against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s been a tough first year in the desert for the veteran southpaw. Injuries have limited him to just nine starts, and when he has been on the mound, he’s been ineffective.
He enters this game pitching to a 5.85 expected ERA while surrendering a .282 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the Bottom 6% among MLB pitchers. Now, Tatis has some weird reverse splits vs. lefties this season, but Rodriguez has been so bad it shouldn’t matter, particularly when right-handers are getting to him for a .291 average and a .855 OPS this season.
Getting Tatis at +195 to drive in a run tonight is silly good value. In fact, our Covers prop projections have it as a five-star play.
Prop bet #3: Adolis Garcia Over 1.5 total bases
It was a tough season for the Texas Rangers, who won’t be able to defend their World Series crown in earnest after missing the postseason, but with their core in place, they’ll look to return to contention in 2025, and for now, it would be nice to end the year on a high note against the rival Los Angeles Angels.
One big reason the Rangers took a step back was because the lineup just didn’t produce at the same rate it did a season ago, and that includes All-Star outfielder Adolis Garcia. He enters this game with an underwhelming .224 average and a .684 OPS, but it looks like he's found his stroke down the stretch.
The two-time All-Star is hitting .325 with a .972 OPS over his last 10 games, and I like him to keep that going in tonight’s matchup against Angels’ starter Griffin Canning.
It's been a tough season for Canning, too. The right-hander owns a 4.74 expected batting average and a .262 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 18th and 21st percentiles, respectively. Not only that, Garcia has had his number as well.
Garcia is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Canning. That’s good for a .337 xBA and a .865 xSLG. He's gone Over 1.5 total bases six times in the last 10 games, and in this matchup at this price, I like him to make it seven of 11.
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