This NL series continues on Saturday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the New York Mets at American Family Field. MLB odds have this game as a pick ‘em, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Mets vs. Brewers predictions are optimistic on the Brew Crew, as I think they can solve New York starter Jose Quintana.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, September 28.
Mets vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Mets hand the ball to left-hander Jose Quintana on Saturday, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 30 starts this season, the southpaw possesses a 3.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Those aren’t the worst numbers in the world, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Quintana owns a 4.49 xERA and .259 xBA.
That xBA number is particularly concerning against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that ranks eighth in hits per game and seventh in BA. Furthermore, Quintana is 0-2 against Milwaukee over his past three head-to-head meetings with a 4.50 ERA.
This current Brewers lineup boasts a .306 BA, .551 SLG, and .406 wOBA through 59 combined career plate appearances against Quintana.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is going with a bullpen day, which is good news for the home side. One of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brewers’ relief staff ranks in the Top 10 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Mets vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Jose Quintana Under 4.5 strikeouts
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
I am also going to fade Quintana in the MLB player props. The left-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in five of his past seven starts.
A correlated outcome would also include a member of the Brewers to record some hits. Willy Adames boasts a .333 BA through 13 career plate appearances against Quintana and has also recorded seven hits over his past five games, so I’ll add his Over 0.5 hits to round out this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Brewers odds
Mets vs Brewers live odds
Mets vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +102 | Milwaukee -120
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+172) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Mets vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -120 favorite but the Mets have taken the bulk of the betting action as the Brew Crew have drifted to -104.
- This line movement doesn’t scare me off the Brewers, considering that the market typically moves against bullpen games.
- The total opened at 8 and has since been bet up to 8.5.
- The market is respecting the fact that both teams rank in the Top 5 of the league in runs scored per game.
Mets vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has won four of the past five head-to-head matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers.
Mets vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (10-9, 3.74 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Jared Koenig (4-1, 2.51 ERA) |
Mets vs Brewers latest injuries
Mets vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
