The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Miami Marlins to Rogers Centre tonight as they open their final series of the season.
Jose Berrios owns a stingy 1.42 ERA through three starts this month, and that’s a big reason why my Marlins vs. Blue Jays predictions are bullish on the Under. Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, September 27.
Marlins vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Although Jose Berrios had his seven-game win streak snapped last Friday, the Toronto Blue Jays starter was sensational in defeat. The right-hander allowed just six hits and one earned run through six innings of work as the Jays failed to give him any support in a 1-0 loss to Tampa Bay.
Following an 8-3 drubbing by the Yankees on August 3 where he gave up six runs, Berrios has locked in and played his best baseball of the season. He’s held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts while holding an impressive 1.51 ERA through that span.
But like we saw in Berrios’ last start, he likely won’t get much run support from his offense. The Blue Jays have averaged a measly 2.63 runs per game over their last eight contests while scoring four runs or fewer in six of those outings.
Nearly half of their runs during that span were driven in by either Alejandro Kirk (5 RBI) or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3 RBI) — not a great recipe for team success.
That lackluster offense has led to the Jays cashing the Under in seven of their last eight games — a trend I expect to continue in tonight’s series opener against the Miami Marlins.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Guerrero has had a fantastic final month of the season, batting .333 with 13 RBI, tied for the team lead. While Kirk ended Toronto’s last series on fire with four RBI in his last two games, we’re actually getting slightly better odds on a Vladdy RBI tonight, so I’m sticking with the proven commodity.
Guerrero has notched five RBI in his last seven contests but arguably deserves even better as he’s batting .433 with multiple hits in four of those games. The Marlins own the second-worst team ERA in the majors (4.77), so I like Vladdy’s chances of popping off.
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Marlins vs Blue Jays odds
Marlins vs Blue Jays live odds
Marlins vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Miami +150 | Toronto -180
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (-140) | Toronto -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Marlins vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as the huge home favorite at -180 thanks to the pitching mismatch. That number crept up as high as -222 by Friday morning, with 84% of bettors backing Toronto at the time of writing.
- Toronto is 7-1 in its last eight meetings against Miami.
- Tonight’s total opened at 8.0 but proceeded to inch up to 8.5 at several books. The Under is 8-2 in Toronto’s last 10 contests and 4-1 in Adam Oller’s last five starts.
Marlins vs Blue Jays trend
The Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.
Marlins vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Sportsnet |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Adam Oller (1-4, 5.06 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (16-10, 3.38 ERA) |
Marlins vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Marlins vs Blue Jays weather
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