Yankee Stadium fans willing to brave the miserable weather expected today will see a pair of favorites in the Rookie of the Year odds when Pittsburgh Pirates rookie righty Paul Skenes meets New York Yankees rookie right-hander Luis Gil.
The rookie hurlers have been stingy with the runs, and that's why my Pirates vs Yankees predictions expect a low-scoring affair this afternoon.
Pirates vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Today’s matchup between the ROY frontrunners should be a fun one.
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie righty Paul Skenes has been phenomenal, allowing just two earned runs across his previous 22 frames. He's racked up 22 strikeouts with six walks during that span, which coincides with what he’s accomplished all season.
Skenes may bend at times, but he rarely breaks. The guy is twirling a 1.99 ERA across 131 innings, with 167 punchouts and a trail of broken bats. He’ll have to be sharp today, as the New York Yankees have punished right-handed pitching this season.
The Bombers boast the best offense in baseball against righties. What you see is what you get, and the Yankees are a low-strikeout, high-walk club sporting a low .278 BABIP but an above-average .182 ISO. Skenes will make it tough on the Bombers, but so will New York's Luis Gil.
Gil may not be as flashy as Skenes, but the rookie has been strong for the Yankees, allowing nine earned runs across his last 24 1/3 frames with 16 free passes and 25 whiffs. Gil is striking out 10 per nine and will catch a break today because the Pirates don’t score runs.
The four runs Pittsburgh scored on Friday were the most its scored in any of its last eight games. The Pirates strike out too much (25%) with a low walk rate while creating the fourth-fewest runs against righties.
I expect this head-to-head battle to be awesome; the weather will be miserable, and this NY bullpen is one of the best in the business. The Yankees could also be resting some players today, which could limit their offense — they’ll meet a Pirates bullpen boasting a .248 BABIP across the past two weeks. That’s why I'm playing the Under today.
Aaron Judge pick: Judgment Day
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 total bases (-175 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Aaron Judge leads baseball in home runs (58) and has cracked one bomb in each of his last five. He received a much-needed day off last night and should be ready to get back out there, considering how hot his bat is. The big-bashing Bronx Bomber has had multiple hits in three of his last five and is batting .329 against righties and .335 at Yankee Stadium.
Righties boast a .299 BABIP and six of Skene’s 10 bombs allowed have come against that side. Judge will also see a Pirates bullpen surrendering 224 hits and 23 jacks across their last 1018 batters.
Pirates vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Aaron Judge 1+ total bases
Yankees moneyline
The Yankees are 43-36 at home and 9-5 when Gil pitches at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees dropped three of their last four home games, but the Pirates aren’t a good baseball team.
Pittsburgh has dropped five of its last eight road games because it averages fewer than four runs per game on the road. The Pirates do have Skenes, but they also have a terrible bullpen that’s blown 11 of its 28 save opportunities since the All-Star break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
Pirates vs Yankees live odds
Pirates vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +115 | New York -150
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-200) | New York -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Pirates vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Pirates are 4-6 across their last 10 and 14-9 when Skenes makes the start.
- The Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and 19-9 when Gil gets the nod.
- Over/Under totals haven’t budged from the 7.5-run opener. The Over is priced better than even money, but the poor weather expected today is likely why you’ll pay as much as -125 for the Under.
Pirates vs Yankees trend
The Pirates have stayed Under the total in 41 of their last 72 away games for +9.50 units and a 12% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
Pirates vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (11-3, 1.99 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (15-6, 3.27 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Pirates vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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