The Arizona Diamondbacks are stumbling towards the finish line. They’ve dropped four of the past five games and their playoff chances are up in the air as a result.
Luckily for the D-backs, they get to finish the regular season against a team that has clinched a playoff berth and can no longer move up or down the standings.
Led by leadoff man Corbin Carroll, my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions see Arizona’s bats making noise at the dish.
Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for Saturday, September 28.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Corbin Carroll is one of the hottest bats in the majors. The Arizona Diamondbacks leadoff man has cleared this line in 12 of his past 20 home games (60%), averaging a healthy 3.3 H+R+R in that span.
He has a dream matchup to keep the good times going tonight, as San Diego Padres starter Randy Vazquez has allowed a .304 average to opposing batters this season. That number rises to an almost unbelievably high .386 batting average when facing left-handed hitters like Carroll.
The Diamondbacks’ young star has feasted on righties at home this season. He owns a .271 average, .365 OBP, .372 xwOBA, and 81.6% contact rate against right-handed pitchers in Arizona.
He should continue to build on them against Vazquez, who he’s feasted on in the early portion of his career. Although Carroll hasn’t seen a ton of Vazquez, he has certainly made the most of his limited opportunities — boasting four hits in seven plate appearances.
Carroll has routinely cleared this number on home soil in recent months, and I love his chances of doing so again in a crucial game for the defending NL champs.
Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Diamondbacks moneyline
Eugenio Suarez is another Diamondbacks batter positioned nicely for a big night. He has produced 2.2 H+R+R per game in Arizona this year and 2.6 when averaging at least four plate appearances. With Arizona essentially playing for its season, the veteran slugger should remain in this game from start to finish.
Suarez is also on milestone watch, as he is sitting at 29 homers and 99 RBI on the season. He couldn’t ask for much more than a hitter-friendly environment against one of the worst pitchers in the league.
I like Carroll, Suarez, and the Diamondbacks to tee off in this game and get a needed victory to bolster their playoff chances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +135 | Arizona -160
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-140) | Arizona -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Padres vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks have taken serious money and are now trading at -185 on bet365. That’s a 25-cent swing since opening.
- The total remains at 9.0 on bet365 but bettors have to pay a little bit steeper of a price at -125.
- Eight of the past 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Over the total.
- The Diamondbacks have hit the team total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI).
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
Carroll has eclipsed 2.5 H+R+R in four of his past five games against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
Padres vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, ARID |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (4-7, 5.19 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Eduardo Rodriguez (3-4, 5.56 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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