Astros vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Runs Aplenty a Pipe Dream in California

Two of the Top 6 favorites in the AL Cy Young odds will oppose each other tonight at Angel Stadium as Framber Valdez and the visiting Houston Astros take on Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels. The home team sits as -140 favorites in the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 leaning to the Over.

Thanks to some double-digit winds blowing out, the Over has seen some money. But with Valdez’s high groundball rate and Ohtani continuing to miss bats, the wind might not be much of a factor.

Find out where my best bet lies in my MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels on May 9.

Astros vs Angels odds

Astros vs Angels predictions

The Astros have dropped five of their last six games, as this is an offense that's waiting to positively regress to their 2022 form. Coming into tonight’s matchup and facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, Houston ranks in the Bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA. It also ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per/9 (4.42) and sits 26th in OPS. That's not great news when you have to see a starting pitcher who has a league-best .125 batting average against.

Shohei Ohtani has given up nine runs over his last two starts, but can still get out of any situation with his insane K% that ranks as the best in the American League. 

I do think the fair price on the Astros is +115 on the moneyline, but this isn’t a great offensive matchup for either team. The Angels’ bullpen is currently tied with the Mariners for the best WAR, the Houston bullpen is reliable too, and Framber Valdez can keep the home bats in check as well.

There are 15 mph winds blowing straight out to center, but Valdez is a groundball machine with a 65% groundball rate on the season. He also has solid career numbers vs. the best hitters in this L.A. lineup, as Mike Trout and Ohtani are just 5-for-38 combined lifetime vs. Valdez. The southpaw has also corrected his walk issues, which were one of the few knocks on him.

This total opened at 7.5, but there are a few 8s to pick off. There are plenty of outs here for the Under to hit, with the obvious one being that these two Cy Young hopefuls can keep the crooked numbers off the board for seven innings. 

The hitting conditions do favor runs, but with Valdez keeping the ball on the ground and Ohtani just missing bats, it shouldn’t be as big a factor as one would assume. 

My best bet: Under 8 (-111 at BetRivers)

Astros vs Angels moneyline analysis

Ohtani has been mowing down opponents out of the gate, posting the highest K% of all American League starters at 38.6%. Context is needed, however, as the right-hander has faced Oakland twice, Kansas City, Washington, Boston, Seattle, and St. Louis. Things haven’t gone well recently for the two-way star, as over his last two turns (vs. Oakland and St. Louis, respectively), Ohtani has allowed nine runs over 11 innings. 

He has been almost unhittable, though, with just 16 hits over 39 innings. But he has struggled with command, which has elevated his pitch counts and put him into high-leverage situations. He’s punched out 21 batters over those two starts, but also surrendered four home runs. He now faces a great lineup in Houston, where he is 3-3 over 10 starts with a 3.57 ERA.

Outside of the absence of Jose Altuve (thumb), this is a healthy 'Stros lineup that should be hitting better than their 23rd wRC+ and 27th wOBA.

Valdez can also continue to throw up zeroes, as the lefty has begun another great season where he's getting an insane amount of ground balls and has worked on one of his weaknesses, which was free passes. 

Valdez has allowed more than three runs just once this season over seven starts and has been extremely efficient, going more than 18 outs in four of his last six outings. 

The L.A. bullpen has surprisingly been great this year and has all arms available today, while the Astros still have one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

This game is in the coin-flip range for me here, and I think the Ohtani tax is making the Astros the better side tonight at +120. The wind is blowing straight out at Angel Stadium, and with Valdez keeping his batted balls on the ground and Ohtani struggling to keep the ball in the yard of late, that could be the difference tonight. 

Houston opened at +115, reached +125, and has since moved back to +120. I have this at +115.

Astros vs Angels Over/Under analysis

The Over has seen a 15-point move throughout the day at bet365, as bettors are likely backing the hitting conditions which favor the longball. Pinnacle did hit a flat 8 briefly this morning but quickly returned to 7.5. I’m not high on runs today, and bettors should be actively searching for a total of 8 to hit the Under.

Valdez shouldn’t be bothered too much by the strong winds blowing out, as he has a 65% groundball rate on the season, and a 67% rate over his career. 

Ohtani hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, but he has punched out 21 batters over those last two games and has a .125 batting average against, which is just bananas. If the right-hander can avoid the free passes and keep the ball in the park, we could see both starters throwing up a lot of donuts and then possibly ask two very solid bullpens to collect the final six outs. 

Regression is coming for the Houston lineup, but if we’re looking at its hitting numbers at face value, the Astros are a Bottom 10 team offensively. They are striking out at a low rate, but a start vs. Ohtani isn’t likely the place where they snap out of a cold start.

Astros vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (2-4, 2.60 ERA): Valdez currently has the sixth-shortest odds for the AL Cy Young at +2,000. The lefty hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts, but thanks to some poor run support, the Astros are 1-3 SU in these games and 2-4 SU over his six starts this season. He’s reduced his walk rate and is still striking out a batter per frame while also maintaining his insane groundball rate of 65%. Over his five-year career, he’s seen the Halos 15 times and has a 3.96 ERA and a .230 batting average against. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are a combined 5-for-38 vs. Valdez for a .131 average.

Shohei Ohtani (4-0, 2.54 ERA): Ohtani is currently the betting favorite for the AL MVP (-110) and has the second-shortest odds for the AL Cy Young (+450). He ranks second in K% at 38.6% behind only Spencer Strider, and Ohtani's .125 opponent batting average against leads all of baseball. The L.A. starter's issues this season have been with control, as his BB% is the seventh-highest in baseball. The Angels are 6-1 over his seven starts this season, but the right-hander has also given up nine runs over his last two starts.

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